Woodstock was seen as 3 days that defined a generation. Will Josh’s stocks soar if data over the next 3 days is mind-blowingly good?
While the PM is considering a Royal Commission into veteran suicides, which seems too important to waste time with a showpiece for lawyers, why don’t we have a Royal Commission into the economic emergency that the Treasurer is ignoring.
The Government’s current strategy on cutting rates is hardly working. Frydenberg needs to cut taxes.
My current diagnosis rules out economic psychosis and things are still OK, as far as I can tell. Goodness gracious me, I so hate this negativity.
What if the biggest worry for the house price doomsday merchants i.e. household or private debt was actually shrinking before our very eyes?
Retailers are uniting to be a powerful lobby group to ensure politicians work with them in this challenging and changing online world.
The task would be simple and if you did it for yourself you could learn how to turn $1,000 into $256,000.
The PM’s mistake on how to get the economy going relates to the problems Domino’s Pizza were having but have got over.
The Federal Government’s scheme to make it easier for first home buyers to get on the property ladder is well intentioned but is it adding to the property price problem?
I remain in the “we will dodge the bullet” camp but we need an end to the debacle these so called leaders have us in.
There’s a house price controversy between the number crunchers. Who’s right? Are prices really rising?
Talking the economy down doesn’t represent great leadership. In all my time in the media, we never used the R-word unless it was upon us.
We’re not in the precarious position we were in with the GFC in 2008 but there is another history lesson Josh and Scott should heed.
Successful people leave clues for others to learn from and the tearaway success of the Mexican food business Guzman y Gomez (GyG) is a case in point.
Frydenberg’s positivity on Aussie growth and his rejection of the IMF view, are all good to hear. Now we have to hope he’s right! Here’s my take…
Falling interest rates means anyone wanting income will look at alternatives. Going up the risk curve is OK but you must always be aware that every movement up that curve can be more risky. Be careful.
Millennial business leader John Winning castigated the millennials he works with. Let’s look at how valuable millennials are to our economy.
A news story out of Beijing’s state news sources virtually warned the markets not to pop champagne on the deal, despite Trump branding the alleged agreement as being “very substantial”.
The Treasury has announced an inquiry into banks overcharging their customers and not passing on the RBA rate cuts in full. Is there more to the story?
I investigated how wealthy young people will be in the fullness of time because of that boring little thing called superannuation.
We’re at an economic crossroad, which reminds me of an amusing observation by Woody Allen on the threat of a nuclear bomb during the Cold War era.
On my TV show last week, Professor Steve Keen and the AFR’s Chris Joye exchanged blows on the prospect of a 40% fall in house prices. More than 15,000 viewers watched the stoush. Here’s my judgement on who won.
As a positive player I’m hoping a trade deal comes out of Thursday’s talks in Washington between the US and China. Here are 10 stocks I like if a deal is struck.
Slow learners called politicians really should have a good read of this story of mine and resolve to give up their self-assured, hubris-laden ways and help all Aussies.
Some people think Donald is a real life version of the ‘Mad King’ from Game of Thrones, while others see him as a negotiating genius. Well it’s time he proved his supporters right.
This question will be argued in our Switzer TV property show tonight by two of this country’s feistiest economists.
This week on the Today programme on Channel 9, I was asked about my book and how to get rich. Here are my answers.
Too many tightwad Aussies, who don’t understand the false economy of being a DIY-type, might be an obstacle to our economy recovering.
A super war is going on between forces of the right and the left and outcomes include the family home being included in the asset test and some people not paying super at all.
Anyone who was not impressed by the communication skill and passion of climate-activist Greta Thunberg has a one-eye problem.
I don’t like low interest rates or household debt-to-GDP ratios at record highs but I know debt servicing levels are unbelievably low and troubled loans and defaulters aren’t worrying anyone, apart from those who have a vested interest in talking down the economy.
Love him or loathe him, Donald Trump has had a big impact on our super and he could make or break our economy. That’s why I watch every move he makes.
Alan Jones interviewed me today on my new book Join the Rich Club and he picked out one of my favourite quotes: “If nothing changes, nothing changes.” Are you prepared to change?
Investors would love term deposits to be 5% or higher. It’s not going to happen for a long time! But here’s how to get more income while minimising risk.
Hopefully our Prime Minister might come home from his dinner date with Donald Trump with the kind of good news that would lift confidence, investment, retail spending, jobs and economic growth.
It was ironic that I was about to talk to a group of highly successful entrepreneurs and business builders in Adelaide when the job numbers were released.
Few people are born with a silver spoon in their mouth. Successful people work hard at building their wealth. Are you prepared to walk the road to riches?
The younger average Aussie will retire as millionaires because of super but I’m staggered how many people don’t know what their fund returned, what fees they’re charged or their balance.
What the Foreign Investment Review Board decides on Bellamy’s could result in a green or red light on a Chinese takeover frenzy for some of our most promising companies.
Every week is critical as we loom in on the early October meeting of key US and China trade negotiators. It’s another big week for economies and stocks. Let’s hope we get the kind of good news that will KO the negativity associated with madmen with drones bombing oil facilities!
Bill gave it his best shot and taught us all, except Wayne Swan, that Labor’s policies were not what the country wanted.
I always add up the positives for the economy and markets we invest in then deduct the negatives. This week has been a tale of two halves!
Donald Trump is calling on the boneheads at the Fed to cut interest rates to zero or less! But does he really want that?
Tedious restrictions on bank lending was a prime cause for our economy seeing economic growth fall from 3% to 1.4% in the year to June 30. Is ASIC set to screw this economy yet again?
Doomsday merchants hate my positivity and they’re sure to hate this revelation from an expert not prone to the positive side that the September economic growth number could be, wait for it, 0.8%!
Crucial economic data comes out this week, which could determine if and when interest rates will be cut. If the numbers are bad, all hope rests with China.
Can we trust the latest signs that maybe a deal is in the air? I’ve been waiting for this moment, oh Donald!
Donald better end this trade war madness soon or else we’ll see negative interest rates as a forerunner to a serious recession.
Our chronic problem with trade and budget deficits is vanishing so don’t get bogged down in negativity when you hear today’s growth number. Things are looking up!
Ignore tomorrow’s economic growth and Labor’s new Treasury spokesman! It’s time to engage in a different way of thinking.
Rate cuts now are dangerous so maybe we need some Churchillian inspiration and stimulation: “Never give in, never give in, never, never, never, never… Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.”
You unlock this door with the key of economic education. Beyond it is another dimensionâ€”a dimension of tax cuts, a dimension of growth, a dimension of jobs. You’re moving away from a land of both fear and uncertainty, of falling interest rates and Trumpification. There are good economic signposts up ahead. You’ve just crossed over and out of the Twilight Zone.
As the race to predict a recession gets as feverish as Melbourne Cup Day, let’s do the form on the odds of a market crash and recession.
An article in the Fin Review revealed that investors think advisers can’t be trusted and want to get rich at your expense. But there are advisers who can be trusted to give independent quality advice but lots of Aussies just won’t pay for it.
Is this the start of something bad? Or will Donald pull us back from the brink, helping us to avoid a recession and a stock market crash?
With the stock market set to nose dive, following an escalation of the Trump trade war, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will appeal to businesses today to start investing. What will he say to overcome their fears?
These recession talk blues are melting away, â€œin 2019 and 2020, Australia will grow twice as fast as the Euro Area, twice as fast as Japan and faster than the USAâ€. Let’s make a brand new start of being positive.
Everybody’s talking about Trumpism, Populism, Communism, Fascism, Tradeism, Iranism, Recessionism. This-ism, that-ism, is-m, is-m, is-m. All we are saying, is give stimulus a chance!
In a surprise move, Labor stalwart Senator Penny Wong is now talking up Australia’s support for the coal mining industry. Put on your climate change seat belt and read this!
Just how scared should we be about this stock market sell off, the threat of an inverted yield curve in the bond market, a related recession and house price collapse?
A key lesson from great sporting coaches is that you have to talk your team into a winning mentality. This is something the US President does so well. Our leaders need to look and learn.
The media went into madness and mayhem mode yesterday as the bond curve inverted. But let me help you understand why this isn’t the start of Armageddon.
There’s something strange in the global economy but who’s to blame? The Trump buster? There’s something weird and it doesn’t look good but who’s to blame? The Trump buster?
He tweets in the Whitehouse all the day long, hoppin’ and a-boppin’ and a-singing his song. Every little bird, every little bee, loves to hear Donald go tweet-tweet-tweet.
Hong Kong’s battle with Beijing has rocked global stock markets overnight. This is a red alert for stock players, as a possible black swan is sailing into the already choppy waters of the global economy.
Normal people think this trade spat is being conducted by a pair of ding-a-lings risking a world recession. Most people simply don’t understand why this game doesn’t come to an end.
What just happened? We started the week worried about a crash and now most of those losses, have been wiped back on!
China has been cheating on trade for decades and the Trump trade war is justifiable but the world is going to suffer. Can economists rescue global economies from the fallout of Donald’s trade war?
At a time when stocks have been diving, it’s time to not be a dope and learn this money-making lesson!
China has gone for the De Niro option, telling the untouchable Trump that if â€œSomebody messes with me, I’m gonna mess with him.â€ And stocks have been garrotted.
I won’t be dumping Twitter but I’m tired of it because it’s not a forum for debate but more for those twits who love to hate. And that’s sad.
The Fed isn’t as worried about the US economy as others, which is why it doesn’t have a programme for a number of cuts. I damn well hope they’re right.
Former PM Keating has scorned those who would delay an increase in compulsory super. Should we ignore his divine intervention?
A survey 18 years in the making reveals that while our incomes aren’t going anywhere, we’re getting smarter about improving our financial lives.
As interest rates come down and auction clearance rates go up, is a property day of reckoning looming or disappearing?
If the Reserve Bank is braindead, then its Governor, Dr Phil Lowe is a 24-carat gold nincompoop. Is this true?
Could Donald’s ducks and drakes negotiations with China stall? Could he slam more tariffs on their goods? Could the Chinese stop talking, hoping he gets clobbered at the November poll? And am I investing?
What’s going to make spending sexy again? Will rates and tax cuts seduce Aussie consumers to unzip their wallets?
A US investment bank and a Trump hater are predicting a looming recession, but ironically Professor Steve Keen doesn’t agree.
What has two all-beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions on a sesame seed bun got to do with property prices? Read onâ€¦
The 10 essential truths you need to consider if you really want to go to the next level, or even higher.
Watching the Oz economy for me is like groundhog day, where you find yourself encountering similar occurrences over and over again.
Three events with the fingerprints of US President Donald Trump all over them could move markets up or down in coming weeks, thereby affecting all of us.
A survey of CEOs tells us that two in five workers shouldn’t have high expectations about getting a pay increases any time soon.
When an economy’s turning around, I look for unusual indicators like the â€œportalooâ€ index. Now I’ve got the â€œarchitectsâ€ index, which could be spot on.
Is the pulse seriously weakening on the Oz economy or is it simply too early to expect consumers to react to rate cuts and tax rebates that haven’t actually had time to impact their bank balances yet?
Economic stories can turn on a dime but right now, as the economic crystal ball messenger, I’m betting against the Armageddon scenario.
I advocate that we ban bitcoin and its imitators or simply regulate them, so light is shone on this dark, dark world.
As Mike and the Mechanics declare: â€œEvery generation, blames the one before And all of their frustrations, Come beating on your doorâ€¦â€ Well, I’m saying it loud and clear: Baby boomers aren’t to blame!
Many Aussies don’t understand the money they toss away without a thought. This rate cut should be a wake-up call for money â€œdopesâ€.
With the US stock market at all-time highs, on my TV show I looked at 24 big losing stocks of last financial year, which experts tip will have a big rebound. Is this optimism on the money?
This week the economy could pick up interest rate cuts and tax cuts, which are more urgent, following the failure of Donald Trump to end the trade war over the weekend at the G20 meeting.
The Australian newspaper today has provided a list of allegedly the top 50 financial advisers in Australia. So I thought I’d give you my best insights into finding a standout adviser.
If our rejection of Labor’s tax policies on May 18 wasn’t enough, the Shadow Treasurer has surfaced with a proposition to axe our cuts. When will they learn?
Channelling Sting: Every move they make. Every bond they break. Every game they play. Every word they say. I’ll be watching them. Ignore the two most powerful leaders in the world this weekend in Osaka, Japan at your peril.
Some media commentators still sick over Shorten’s shellacking continue to portray property investors as over pampered high-income rorters. The facts tell a different story.
Talk of three rate cuts come with a negative view on the Aussie economy. There’s lots of positives that say that three cuts could be overkill.
CEOs are spooked by the new age which they think won’t be helped by interest rate cuts. The reason is we’ve lost our money mojo!
Overnight the US President tweeted positive trade talk and US stocks surged. And Homer Simpson helps us understand the very unusual Donald Trump.
News out this morning that Facebook looks set to go crypto could change the fate of these strange, unregulated digital currencies.
You might have to be an economist of Inspector Poirot proportions to work out what’s really going on with our economy!
The slide of confidence over 2018 intensified as we got closer to election day on May 18. But look at the bounce in business confidence! Will consumers be so happy?
The ‘complain-a-lot’ mob are whinging about Tuesday’s rate cut but they need to read the economic tea leaves and get positive.
Aussie interest rates are down and there was big buying on Wall Street overnight. What’s the common link?
The US President could easily create the global recession we didn’t have to have and this time we will join the R-word club for the first time in 28 years!
When I was a child, I thought like a child, I reasoned like a child. When I became an adult, I put the ways of childhood behind me’. Our politicians need to grow up, admit they’re wrong and work on our behalf as leaders.
My doomsday buddies won’t give up on their 40% house price calls, though I’d love them to have to wait til kingdom come. If Donald Trump cracks a trade deal, it will be bad news for doomsday merchants.
How long should a doomsday merchant have to get away with telling us to be very scared and a crash is coming?
With Anthony Albanese leading Labor, he has to show he can listen and learn from the election and the economy. Both tell you what Aussies are thinking!
Weekend newspapers hailed housing’s comeback, with auction clearance rates rising, developers recommitting to projects and estate agents shocked at buyer interest.
Doomsday economist Professor Steve Keen thinks the election result was a loss Labor was possibly lucky to have and they shouldn’t be ‘pissed off’!
Do you suffer from DCA? Many Aussies have a cavalier approach to money and a ‘don’t care attitude’.
The election was a headwind that had been holding back our ability to feel economically secure. On Saturday, Australian voters opted for staying secure.
If you’re a dyed-in-the-wool Labor voter and crestfallen about Saturday’s result, be positive. The election result was the best for the Aussie economy, your job, your house price and your super.
In the dying moments of the election campaign, a new business ‘champion’ has emerged. This candidate with a makeover is none other than the man who-would-be-PM, Bill Shorten.
With Saturday’s election targeting property investors and self-funded retirees, who are seen as tax bludgers, research shows this is an unfair slagging.
Can Donald do a Houdini and escape a big, recession-creating trade war or is he out of his depth playing bluff poker with Xi Jinping?
I wonder how many voters will determine their vote based on what’s really important: their jobs, the ability to buy a house and whether they can pay it off?
Donald Trump is expected to sign a deal this week that would avert a trade war with China. If he fails, the world could end up in recession. He couldn’t be so dumb, could he?
Here’s a condensed version of why Dr Phil gave the thumbs down to a rate cut yesterday. I didn’t want one but I am conflicted!
Bill Shorten has made a pitch to small business, helping them to employ younger and older workers but he has also cheesed off their trusted accountants. What is he smoking?
Graham Richardson says because Morrison ‘doesn’t have a long record of achievement yet, he has to run a scare campaign on Labor and it’s pretty easy to get people scared of Bill.’
Bill Shorten’s wages pitch is a great piece of politics for an election and most workers will like the sound of a leader promising pay rises. But it’s not exactly honest or accurate economics.
One of the biggest, positive election stories affecting Aussies happened in Washington DC, thanks to Donald Trump.
Banks are being forced to play tightwad on loans and it’s time our leaders (Scott or Bill) did something about this or house prices will slump.
With help from Bill Shorten, doomsday merchants have predicted that house prices could fall by 40%. But could the Reserve Bank ride to the rescue?
I’ve learnt from the likes of Buffett so I invest in what I believe in- Australia- and I try to do it when others are fearful.
Shorten has promised to work with business and says he won’t be pushed around by trade unions. Will his past performance be a reliable guide to his future actions?
The Royal Commission has hurt the banks and the effects of their restrictive lending is hurting the economy. Will Frydenberg or Bowen have the guts to ease this pain?
This is for young people, but any wealth-challenged Aussie can benefit from my how-to-be-a-millionaire recommendations, no matter what your age.
Like him or loathe him, Donald Trump and what he has achieved should be considered before you cast your vote on May 18.
Odds on favourite election winner Bill Shorten has had a super stumble in front of the media by not understanding his own super tax slugs.
Everybody is asking who I think will win the election and how will property and stocks prices react. What I conclude could surprise you!
Our company runs Investor Strategy Days in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne where I bring together some of Australia’s smartest minds. History has taught me that hanging out with insightful people is great for success.
It’s a pity we haven’t had an eye opening recession for 28 years because you don’t know what you’ve got til it’s gone.
Here’s a masterclass lesson on how to invest wisely and ignore headlines that prevent you from getting richer.
A journalist from the land of optimism says Aussies should appreciate their economic prowess and doomsday merchants should stop praying and rooting for an economic Armageddon!
Economic forecasts out of the Budget were positive and Bill & Scott’s tax cuts will go a long way to deprive the pessimists of what they love - failure.
Responding last night, Bill simply offered bigger tax cuts to low-paid workers ensuring he has a real good chance of winning around 3.6 million votes.
Stand by for Bill to pull out the whip to ride home to the electoral winning post, by promising bigger and better tax cuts tonight.
Sportsbet has Labor as a $1.17 favourite and the Coalition is at $4.85. Will this Budget with its tax cuts change these odds today?
Tonight’s budget is set to deliver tax cuts and this is the first year ever that the RBA is supporting pork barrelling for the sake of the economy.
Let’s cut to the chase – the Federal Government is pursuing growth, jobs and your vote and the Reserve Bank will be an accessory, cheering for tax giveaways to come first on Tuesday night.
What’s behind economists’ poor forecasting performance? Is it a hard job working out the collective behaviour of a weird mob called Australians?
Our bank regulator wants to change how much and why top finance executives get paid, which will put a monkey on the back of boards.
House prices are falling but how low can they go? I tested this claim that prices could fall 40% or more in a debate on my TV show. Who delivered the KO blow?
Doomsday merchant economists and others tip a knock out for property prices, with claims a 40% crash is on its way. It’s a rumble in the jungle tonight on my show Money Talks at 7.30pm.
After nearly 35 years of publicly analysing what goes on in our economy, this is an economic ‘psycho’ plot that has me on the edge of my seat!
Today’s jobs report for Feb should prove to be a maker or breaker for the Oz economy and determine whether there’ll be an interest rate cut soon.
Shorten has stepped up to slap down trade union bosses who think they can use our super money to pressure big companies to pay higher wages and offer better working conditions!
A director of Australian Super has been pressuring trade union leaders to use their influence to force companies to pay higher wages. Is this OK?
On Friday I had the good fortune to listen to Pat Lencioni, the author of the book The Advantage, who argues that “organisational health trumps everything else in business.”
Bill Shorten tweeted that everything is going up except wages. Is it too much to expect a politician to tell us the truth?
Aussies are confused about a safe use of their money compared to a wise use of it. This explains why they can have wealth issues in retirement.
The latest NAB business survey has made me switch from being a rates ‘on hold’ guy to a ‘let’s cut’ cheerleader.
There are unforgettable rules of thumb, which, if followed, can make you money, lots of money, from stocks.
All employees love a pay increase but how is Bill going to achieve this? Could he be on the path to ruin our unbelievably strong jobs market?
With Bill Shorten promising to raise wages for all, I thought it timely to see what we can learn from those who are wage-less- billionaires
With a disappointing economic growth number this week, the PM complained about Labor using dodgy economic statistics to suit themselves. Is he right or wrong?
We have improving auction clearances and a bounce back in business confidence and conditions but yesterday’s economic growth number was a disappointment. Are cuts on the cards?
Today’s economic growth number could press the RBA’s button on interest rates and reveal whether employers can afford Shorten’s dream of higher wages.
Australia’s experience may rewrite the rulebook’ says a special report written by Gabriel Sterne from the UK.
Bad news gets enough media coverage so here’s my latest list of largely ignored good news. Read all about it’¦
ASIC and the ASX never show that they have a ‘police’ enforcement body that investigates potential skulduggery.
There are calls for business to lift its leadership and culture but someone in government has to have the guts to encourage the change.
With the stock market heading in the right direction and signs that auction clearance rates are better than expected, what are the fireballs that could create economic hell?
Could Shorten and Bowen venture so far as to tax the sale of the family home? And could the Coalition raise the GST?
Bill Shorten has come up with a more compassionate deal for mortgage brokers and jobs are pouring down from heaven for the Government.
If you’re sweating on a pay rise any time soon, today’s economic revelations could prove crucial to how fatter your pay packet becomes!
Those who look for the negative are warning that a lot of pain is ahead for Aussie homeowners, consumers and retail outlets that sell them stuff.
Bill Shorten is under pressure not to cut the throats of mortgage brokers, but he has forced the Morrison government to help small businesses take big business to court, cost ‘free’.
Bill, if you’re keen to kill off the First Home Super Saver, you better come up with a better plan to help young Aussies buy a home, other than driving down property prices.
Doomsday merchants didn’t have a week that reinforced their negative view of the world. Read these positive developments.
As I’ve often asked: Is there a conspiracy not to reveal good economic news? Well, I’m not afraid to tell you some. Read this!
Donald does it all the time but when has a leading politician here ever had much impact on the market?
Labor’s delayed response to the Hayne Royal Commission is hopefully a good sign that divine inspiration is in stall for them.
Critics say the Royal Commission has been gutless and ineffectual. Was justice done? Was enough blood spilt? Did enough heads roll?
America has its Dr Phil and we have one too. Ours is a doctor for something really important called the Aussie economy and I spent lunch time with him yesterday.
The Royal Commission has been a ripper but its plans for mortgage brokers is simply crazy and I hope Bill Shorten can see this.
Will havoc be imposed on the market from the Hayne Royal Commission or will we make money from a stock surge?
Is this Labor’s real view: They’re self funded retirees, they need no sympathy? If Aussies are caught in a landslide to Labor, many older Australians will lose income.
One of the more reliable indicators of whether a bear market is coming to a stock market near you, comes from the research team at Citi.
Fear can paralyse you, limit your life and make you ill. Here are 8 ways to remove any fear that may shroud you from being healthy and happy.
To quote John Lennon, I’m sick and tired of hearing things from uptight short-sighted narrow-minded hypocritical commentators.
Today the latest reading on unemployment comes out at a time when economists are downgrading their optimism about the Oz economy. But can we trust these prophets of doom or gloom?
Critics argue that I’m anti Labor and pro Coalition but my search engine tells a different story. I take my political commentary very seriously.
My recent brush with my beloved country has convinced me that Bill Shorten and Kim Kardashian prove that there’s something that needs changing.
We might prefer Labor over the Coalition in The Australian’s Newspoll but we’re still not Bill Shorten fans! Shorten needs to be more inclusive of all Australians or we might have a Bill ‘Short-term’ as our next PM.
There are a lot of curve balls out there for the economy and stock market but I like those holding the bats!
A new study suggests we might be gilding the lily when we make a self-assessment on how well off we are! Could we be dollar delusional?
A closer look at the data shows that we shouldn’t be spooked by these lower house prices and car sales.
This current upward trend in stocks makes me feel comfortable I didn’t buy a seat on the doomsday train.
A reader took me to task for ruining his kids’ Christmas. But there is a powerful lesson this mug Dad has failed to learn himself.
Does our economy deserve the bagging itâ€™s getting? And does it also deserve this hopeless stock market?
Two men and the decisions they make could turn this stock market correction into a crash or a big rebound.
The Government was hyperventilating over its soon to arrive budget surplus. Economists were not as impressed, but theyâ€™re underestimating how hard it is nowadays to be fiscally responsible.
When it comes to dealing with people in business, life and politics, be wise, keeping your eye on the end-result rather than winning any ego victories.
Banks are becoming a new breed of protectors in the â€˜nanny stateâ€™ and the PM needs to get on the front foot and tell banks to do their job and lend us money!
At long last Donald and China are helping the stock market, the economy, your job, your super and my fund.
If youâ€™re less rich than youâ€™d like, resent the car you drive, or prefer to holiday in Tuscany rather than Terrigal, Tugan or Tuncurry, maybe look at your refusal to haggle.
Even the AFR and its normally scary headlines recognised what the OECD (the Paris-based think tank) really thought about our future.
Historically we expect that a stock market will rally towards the end of the year but will Donald Trump be the Grinch that steals Christmas?
The death of George Bush Snr made me think about how important laughter is. Did you know that some doctors and researchers think it can even relieve certain pain and disease?
Stocks plummeted yesterday on recession fears in the US, raising concerns about a crash. But one of the worldâ€™s smartest money men isnâ€™t crash talking yet.
2018 has been the year when Donald Trump has become the biggest single threat and opportunity for the stock market.
When Donald met Xi, they talked turkey and a trade war truce resulted, so stocks should surge here today.
When Bill Clinton said â€œItâ€™s the economy, stupid,â€ he understood the inextricable connection between politics and the economy. A lot of tribal political fans just donâ€™t get this.
Entrepreneurs have taught us that threats can be an opportunity so hereâ€™s how you might make money out of Bill Shortenâ€™s proposed property policies.
The well-meaning Royal Commission has a sting in the tail for the economy because banks just arenâ€™t lending, which could bring us down.
When people call me glass half full, I say I’m not! My glass is full to the top, and it makes a difference to my life and to those around me!
This week Steve Keen predicted Hurricane Housing will hit house prices. While acknowledging the tail end risk, three prominent economists donâ€™t agree with the good Professorâ€™s dismal view.
Why is Labor punishing self-funded retirees? Do they want more people on the pension? Is it time to show enlightened leadership on this?
A current coagulation of negatives could be creating a stock market blockage. Fingers crossed we bypass these.
There will always be obstacles in life: Royal Commissions, banks changing the way they do business, government changes, the list goes on. The only obstacles you can change are the ones that stop you from being first rate.
Horror talk persists, with reckless ridicule hurled at anyone who tries to be objective about house prices. Is there a fraction too much friction and will a tsunami toss us into the economic abyss?
The Government is going to throw $2b at small businesses, which is good. But the Treasurer needs to stop banks making it hard for borrowers before the economy suffers.
Was Wallâ€™s Streetâ€™s big drop overnight a correction and buying opportunity or the start of a market crash?
Iâ€™ve been targeted again by â€˜selfâ€™ proclaimed, irate house price experts, who are reducing the debate to a pub brawl.
Have you ever thought of writing down what’s wrong with you and then next to it write down a strategy to change?
The man who would be PM has said heâ€™s not for turning when it comes to his controversial negative gearing policy.
Iâ€™ve done the form on the big race we all really care about but Iâ€™ll also give you my tips for the Melbourne Cup.
The house price Armageddon Army has ripped into Peter on Twitter. Their belief in a huge crash forced him to produce this extensive list to dispel the â€˜out of controlâ€™ view that a collapse is on its way.
If youâ€™re daydreaming about house prices collapsing, the nightmare is unlikely to happen. We keep hearing about record price falls but are they that big?
It’s the climate change clash of the century but who wins: the PM or our richest new age entrepreneur?
With the Federal budget close to a surplus, does Shorten have to further flatten our property market with polices like tossing out negative gearing & slashing the capital gains discount?
Many people worry about the money misfortunes of the young but no one does anything to change it. Here are 11 money lessons â€“ please pass them round.
Donâ€™t think Iâ€™m going soft because Iâ€™ve fallen under the spell of Harry and Meghan. I have very good reasons to talk about them!
If negative gearing doesnâ€™t affect house prices and rents, why did Paul Keating ditch it, then bring it back two years later?
Australians are the richest people in the world! I didnâ€™t know that, though through my overseas travel and TV watching I suspected weâ€™d be up there.
Are negative and out of context headlines and quotes, whipped up by inexperienced journos, screwing the economy, killing jobs and house prices? Are consumers scared to the bone?
Before the next election, every home owner needs to fully understand what Laborâ€™s property policy might do to their house price. This debate must happen.
The Wentworth whitewash means Shortenâ€™s house price and retiree policies will now need to go under the microscope.
Even a serious economist like me gets a tingle when I see the good work that this young couple is doing.
Only read this if you want to get rich. Average people will ignore this story and wonder why they have money problems.
Trump trade tensions and rising rates trumped by US good news! But our banks must be allowed to lend.
Are we heading towards a recession that we havenâ€™t seen in 27 years and will that show up in 2020?
A controversial tax plan has been announced but what politician would have the guts to run with these proposed changes?
Should you get out of this stock market or have faith that this is nothing more than a correction (where there are buying opportunities) not a crash?
The price of Donald Trumpâ€™s success is higher interest rates and a stock market under pressure. Is this a scary sign of whatâ€™s to come?
Are we in for a king hit market crash? What do the pros say? Will the punches keep coming? Will negativity take the crown or be knocked out? The economic future of the world is at stake!
With our stock market clobbered yesterday, is this a prelude to a bigger collapse, thanks to President Trumpâ€™s trade war?
Males might have more in super than females but whatever the sex, most Aussies donâ€™t have enough. Want more? Read Peterâ€™s article!
Banks need their butts kicked for treating customers badly but making the assessments of who can borrow so hard that quality borrowers are being knocked back or asked to jump through ridiculous hoops, is regulation gone mad.
Bill Shorten was a former Minister for Financial Services and Superannuation and must have been asleep like his predecessors from both sides of Parliament during the years when banks were behaving badly.
Peter Switzer is sick and tired of hearing things from short-sighted narrow-minded commentators and businesses with vested interests. All he wants is the economic truth.
Since the days of Keating and Costello, Treasurers have lacked intestinal fortitude calling out economic dopes. New Treasurer Frydenberg needs to show some guts.
Over the weekend I was swooped up in a Twitter storm about whether any Aussie is entitled to an inheritance.
Ten years on from the collapse of Lehman Brothers, letâ€™s road test our super funds. Are they are train wreck waiting to happen? Can our super funds survive a stock market crash?
Should you call your kids and warn them that Laborâ€™s plans to deny tax rebates to self-funded retirees could shrink or even wipe out their inheritance?
Weâ€™re on the stock market roller coaster again this week, with the â€œunfathomable uncertaintyâ€ Donald Trump taking us for a ride.
Against the naysayers, Switzer made an optimistic call of more jobs, more growth. What are the positive economic implications going forward?
With a recent Newspoll revealing we like Scott more than Bill, our new PM has a task at hand: to make his Party attractive to voters. Can he do this?
The Aussie growth number is out and itâ€™s a goodie but thereâ€™ll still be the whingers who just canâ€™t control their negativity. Read on!
Today Iâ€™m shelving politics, economics and business to focus on whatâ€™s really important to those who desire success. If thatâ€™s you, read on! Politicians take note.
When Gerry Harvey linked up with Katie Page, a retail love story was born. But are you prepared to put your money on this sales dynamic duo?
Some economists think the next cash rate move will be down, not up! So why did Westpac raise rates? Hereâ€™s 7 things to do to protect yourself against rate rises.
With the Mexico trade deal pushing stocks up, business critics might have to re-evaluate the Trump methods.
I taught Economics to the new PM at the University of NSW. I think that gives me the credentials to test him again. Hereâ€™s how he scored.
This weekâ€™s reporting season news has been swamped by a wave of rebellion inside the Government. Here is how Iâ€™ve chronicled the weekâ€™s political machinations.
Telstraâ€™s share price surge teaches you a lesson you should never ignore, if you want to be rich.
There are people who are one-eyed Liberal or Labor supporters and then there are those who look at the facts. What are you?
Donald could lose his trousers over this China trade war and only has until November to avoid being exposed.
Newspapers are scaring the pants off home owners but a property expert reveals all about a price crash.
Tax cuts to business can end up as wage increases and schools and hospitals wonâ€™t miss out either.
They received the return of a tripod but no paperwork or explanation as to why. Thank you, Elle Ellen Presbury Market & Beauty Editor 4/10 Spring Street, Sydney NSW 2000 +61 2 9293 0999 RUSSH.COM
Was this the mother of all political budgets or is it the right budget for a really unusual economic time?
Just when you thought he couldnâ€™t do anything more to make you think â€œonly in America!â€
The â€œbattlersâ€™ budgetâ€ may look politically attractive, but it could be a huge mistake.
As an optimist on the economy, how do we make sense of the bad retail number for the month of August?
There are two ways I can prove Bob wrong by having a better memory, by more careful analysis and by not having one eye.
It could be a great move! To build above normal wealth, sometimes you have to do things that seem abnormal.
Woolworths proved it’s not dead yet with a terrific turnaround story, but should Big W be exterminated in-house before Amazon does it?
Small businesses will be given the stimulation of not being as screwed as they have been in the past when they took out loans with banks.
Canberra is bogged down with a host of issues but businesses, such as newspapers and TV stations, are being burnt alive. So why are’t they dousing flames?
Is Amazon really to blame for the struggling, old-world retailers out there? Or is it just an accessory after the fact?
The Barnaby Joyce issue was surprising, but there are other important things that could impact your life and wealth!
A recent survey quoted a Sydney Western suburbs voter, who lamented that the PM lacked intestinal fortitude. So what’s intensified this lack of faith in our poor pollies?
Anyone who wants to whinge about what weâ€™re economically enduring right now has no clue about the bullet we avoided in the past!
While the press covers the other big issues of the day, as an economist, it’s my job to promote Australia’s great jobs story.
What are the facts and figures saying about the Aussie economy? Are there reasons to be optimistic? Here’s an ‘eco-check’ of the latest run of data.
There’s a big lesson to be learned from Trump’s sacking of “The Mooch” – a pearl of wisdom that’s come from some great business builders.
My solution for our housing, jobs, wages, investment and growth problems might help us avoid cooking the golden goose called the Aussie economy.
According to a new survey, the majority of us view executives earning $600,000 and above as unethical! But is ‘unethical’ the right tag?
Why is reporting season so compelling for stock market players? They understand why it’s so important to their wealth!
Bill Shortenâ€™s crackdown on trusts could really open a can of worms. So how far will Laborâ€™s tax trawling go?
One drug you might like to wind up getting addicted to is happiness. It could just be the secret to success!
I’ve asked those praying types to ask God for a lower Oz dollar. Now, we need to ask for help for the Yanks and their economy too!
Whoâ€™s getting pay rises? And why arenâ€™t you? With inflation coming in at lower than forecasted, a lot of people are asking these two questions.
We’d all like cheaper overseas holidays, but the Aussie economy needs a lower dollar. Here’s why it’s so desirable.
Media outlets scaring people for clickbait reasons need to think about the ramifications of their actions.
A hell of a lot of us could benefit from a 180-degree turn in our lives and in the way we approach things.
Negative and nervous nellies have been trumped by positivity after impressive jobs numbers were released yesterday.
While those in the ‘real world’ are worrying about Foxtel failing to deliver on Game of Thrones, those of us in the money world are worrying about the banks and what they will say today.
There’s a New Age warning – a man is not a financial plan. So who is going to make super as sexy and interesting as the stories that some women flock to in glossy magazines?
New US research on millennials shows that those who have a child before getting married are likely to end up in the poor house.
Itâ€™s ironic that good news for our economy actually hurts our potential to grow quickly enough.
Janet Yellen made her official testimony to Congress and the message was simple â€” interest rates will be raised, gradually.
A push from a pro-consumer coalition against mortgage brokers borders on the excessive and very selective.
In the absence of a surprise change in leadership style by the PM, the economy is his best help for a political rescue.
To avoid getting involved in the usual garbage newspapers preoccupy themselves with, occasionally I check out the best deals for anyone who prefers to be rich rather than poor.
What’s Bernard Tomic’s problem, which he shares with lots of normal people who don’t have to show their unimpressive attitudes on TV?
Sales and business guru Jay Abraham taught me you should never underestimate the importance of the long-term relationship with a customer.
Normal news services really do get over-preoccupied with stories that sometimes sound interesting, but are really of no real consequence to our lives.
Economics and being an economist gives you the right to speculate on anything outrageous and you can count on the media running with it.
After a relaxing month in Italy, where I did a lot to finish a money book thatâ€™s way overdue, I returned to TV last night and blew up!
The old â€œIâ€™m taking my footie home if Iâ€™m not captainâ€ stunt never worked in the park when we were young, but I guess Malcolm Turnbull didnâ€™t learn that.
After receiving plenty of feedback about my un-Italian ways, I’m going to argue the case for feedback and why it can do us some good.
A big call merchant has called a big fall in stocks – so should we jump on his train to negative town?
Tony Abbott’s pitch to get back his old job is basically to ‘make Australia right again’ – a ‘fix up’ promise. But just how broken is Australia?
We need an inspirational leader to nullify the splinter/narrow interest groups who have crept into parliament.
The economic benefit of taking a holiday abroad is to put into perspective just how important we are in the grand scheme of things.
The poor state of wage rises since the GFC gets regular attention. So are bosses simply screwing over their workers, or are there other factors to blame?
A solid life strategy could be to evaluate who you currently hang out with. Don’t underestimate the power of surrounding yourself with the right people.
No one really knows what’s going on with the stock market, but let’s look at the positives and negatives for stocks right now.
U.S. Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, says he’s confident that massive tax reform has a good chance of getting up this year. Here’s why this call is important.
Commentator, Republic agitator and the countryâ€™s number one red bandana wearer, Peter FitzSimons, has picked up a new worthy cause of informing us about the evils of sugar.
What gives with the screwy stock market? Just how scared should you be that weâ€™re seeing the prelude to a big sell off?
The new world of hi-tech juggernauts not playing by the rules is making it hard for other businesses to hand out pay rises.
Two strange stories – one about a giant frying pan in Italy and another about a crap business card – can help you stand out from the crowd. Let me explain!
With the UK election, a testimony from ex-FBI boss James Comey, and the European Central Bank’s meeting, Thursday was a huge day for markets.
One month ago, we were supposed to be scared about a housing bubble. Now the air is coming out slowly, there are fears about prices falling!
Even if we get a negative number for real GDP growth, we equal The Netherlands, which managed 103 quarters without a recession.
These five fortune-making financial films could help you kick off the changes that you might need to change your life – and your bank balance – forever!
I think the recession hopefuls and â€˜sell everythingâ€™ fund managers will have a longer wait than theyâ€™d want.
Next week, a disappointing economic growth number could lead to some negative headlines, which won’t be helpful for confidence and all the things Aussies should be rooting for.
Phil Parker created a storm when he handed back his clientsâ€™ money and said he was selling everything.
Is there a real story behind all this housing bubble talk, or are there a lot of publicity seekers simply blowing a lot of hot air bubbles?
A good week of economic data will not only be great news for the economy, business, job-seekers and wealth builders – it could also take some pressure off the PM.
We need to work on our uniqueness and our indispensability to ensure we beat off those pesky robots that want our jobs.
Are things really as bad as media headlines tell us, particularly when it comes to mortgage stress? Here’s what I think.
Iâ€™m not very negative but I just canâ€™t see where the impetus for growth is going to come from in the short term.
While I had Morgans’ Michael Knox in the hot seat on Monday night, I had to ask him about a Donald Trump impeachment. Here’s what he had to say.
Young Aussies might be finding it difficult to buy a property, but maybe they have fallen into an alternative – and possibly better – investment option!
Here’s a huge money lesson for all of you – especially if you like using comparison websites to find the ‘best deal’ around town.
What we saw yesterday was a Trump slump. And if he doesnâ€™t lift his game, he will cancel out more of the gain weâ€™ve seen in stocks since his surprise win in November.
A number of factors have put Aussie workers and their better-than-world average wages under pressure. But like the frog in the boiling frog principle, a lot of us haven’t noticed that the heat is being turned up.
Our national leaders need to not only praise the value of education, they also need to encourage entrepreneurship.
Great leaders know when they have to take a step back to take two steps forward. They have to pick their fights wisely.
Iâ€™ve tagged this Budget as the â€œBeam us up, Scottyâ€ Budget, with the Treasurer trying to pull off an economic escape plan that just might be sellable to the Senate.
There are a lot of figures thrown at us at 7:30 pm on the second Tuesday in May, so here’s an every personâ€™s guide to assessing the big issues of the Budget.
On Wednesday, the Budget will dominate our newspaper headlines and the most-read websites. And this obsession partly explains why we’re so great.
If you want to be a success in the eyes and ears of other people, then you should think about yourself as a business!
The RBA boss spoke in Brisbane yesterday and the newspaper headlines were negative and scary, with Governor Lowe warning that household debt leaves us more exposed to an economic downturn!
Journalists who covered the structural change of the Aussie economy since former treasurer Keating embarked on a deregulation tour in the 1980s, may well have become victims of his work and the work of others.
What can women – and young people generally – do to ensure that they donâ€™t meet retirement with precious little in super?
The only problem with young people saving more is that it could trigger the Paradox of Thrift. Let me explain.
Here is a helpful piece of mentoring for the thousands of LinkedIn buddies I have accepted over the years.
The smartest move the Turnbull Government has made in recent times is this change of narrative around more understandable concepts, like â€œgood debtâ€ and â€œbad debtâ€.
Donald Trumpâ€™s tax tease will put pressure on all governments to think about their relative tax torture – and that goes double for Treasurer Scott Morrison.
News services say the North Korean war threat is escalating, but stock markets continue to ignore it. So can it last?
The Gold Logie winner – Samuel Johnson – and the Logies generally tell us so much about the average Australian that our politicians try to win over, and how you have to do it.
The tightwad in all of us sometimes says that paying for advice or guidance is a waste of money. But often, it’s one financial step back for a pile of steps forward.
It could be a long way off before Amazon has any real impact on rival retailers, but the market is seeing it as Armageddon for great businesses like JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman.
It seems that there are too many of us who think itâ€™s a national right to whinge. Let’s look at some macro or big-world reasons for not voicing your disappointment with the world.
After reading between the lines of the Reserve Bank board minutes, one economist is preparing us for a rate cut. But another economist is far more optimistic.
Yep, I get it. The media needs to scare the pants off you so you keep coming back for reassurance that things are really worrying.
The turning point in someone’s life is when they start to lead themselves and that prepares them to lead others.
Yesterday was disturbed by media reports that if China pulled the wrong rein, we would be in the you-know-what! But others have been talking up China’s potential.
Until further notice, it’s OK to be optimistic on the Aussie economy. Here’s the latest economic show and tell.
At a time when most stories focus on the craziness of Sydney and Melbourne house price rises, debt ratings agency Moody’s has given a measured view of the year or so ahead for the price of property. Here’s what they had to say.
With May only 21 days away, and knowing that global stock markets have had their best quarter in about four years, you have to wonder if that old market maxim – sell in May and go away – will work this year.
Last week I had the pleasure of hanging out with the people who, potentially, can save Australia from the economic Armageddon that alarmist media commentators are stressing us about!
I donâ€™t feel comfortable with business lawbreakers, monolithic business killers, and latent business haters who often reveal themselves in their Tweets.
On Tuesday, the RBA boss Philip Lowe tried to scare the pants off people overbidding on Sydney and Melbourne houses. But what if this jawboning scares the wrong people?
One and two years ago, I wasnâ€™t worried about bubble talk but the facts are changing, so itâ€™s time for the Treasurer to get involved.
Australia looks on track for a stellar year. To our Treasurer with his fiscal game plan ahead, I say, â€œbeam us up a great Budget, Scotty!â€
My recommendation for getting richer is to model yourself on the abnormal high achievers that you see around you.
Why does an economist/finance commentator/business owner care about our political problem? Let me explain.
Why have stocks continued to rise after Trumpâ€™s health care bill was pulled from a vote in Congress?
Young people toss in their job regularly and this is causing a super problem, with too many Aussies having too many accounts. But thatâ€™s about to change.
The market looks like itâ€™s giving President Donald Trump one more chance on tax reform but be aware that the collective attitude towards him is getting a little worried.
The failure of Donald Trumpâ€™s healthcare reforms to gain Congress approval was not well received by financial markets, though the sell off was not dramatic.
I have an outside-the-square solution to our house price problem, but will the Government have the guts to try it?
If this health care vote gets up, Wall Street will spike and our super funds will have a great financial year. If it fails to get up, think big sell off.
Despite the RBA and APRA getting a tad nervous on house prices in Sydney and Melbourne, they still havenâ€™t said the bubble word. So why wonâ€™t they?
A sign that was lambasting greedy developers got me thinking about how important greed is in our economic system.
Former Prime Minister Paul Keating has weighed into the debate on letting young people access their super for housing – and he’s both right and wrong.
At the core of what troubles a lot of us, and what holds us back from success and happiness, is our preoccupation with the crappy things in our past and anxiety about our future.
Februaryâ€™s job statistics and the media response made me ponder why so many economists and their media buddies treat the Oz economy like that great singing legend Kamahl?
A year ago, if someone in US Federal Reserve officialdom hinted that an interest rate rise was imminent, you wouldn’t have been surprised if Wall Street dumped stocks.
Don’t be afraid of those scary economic headlines in desperate media outlets! Be positive, confident and happy.
I know many people are afraid of stocks but they have done them badly, without good advice. Here’s why I like the ‘scary’ world of stocks.
We waste time on the dumb stuff instead committing more time to the smart and valuable things in life.
In business and in life, the art of persuasion is important. The science behind it might teach you a lesson or two.
If you want to grow as an investor, as a smarter or better person, you have to keep good company and be travelling up the learning curve.
For years I have been warning consumers that their passion for good Internet deals and supporting big, foreign retailers and disruptors, will hurt jobs and wages.
Thereâ€™s a super swindle going on and no one seems to care, so let’s put it out there to see if we can generate interest in the issue.
Today the RBA won’t change interest rates, but if we get inflation this year, the next move could be up.
After our market picked up another boost from another well-received Trump speech, it should also be pointed out that our march higher has something to do with a good run of data.
The President’s State of the Union address may have been short on detail, but it turbo-charged the hope factor that he has brought to the table.
The Aussie economy is set to rebound! No, these arenâ€™t the usual positivity-driven utterances of an excessive Peter Switzer, but the headline of CommSecâ€™s chief economist, Craig James.
Wall Street will test Trump tomorrow when he gives his first official address to Congress and has to deliver more than just promises.
On Wednesday we get an important number that could make or break our goal to be the best growing economy of all time! Hopefully it’s a day to ramp up the nation’s positivity and self-belief.
Ahead of the footie season, which is only weeks away, I had an unusual reminding of how important the power of a champion team is over a team of champions.
Itâ€™s no surprise that Tony is priming to knock off the Prime Minister, given how badly Malcolm Turnbull is doing in the polls. However, this is a political disturbance the economy doesnâ€™t really need.
Some economists are very negative on our prospects because wages in Australia simply aren’t rising quickly enough. But are they just victims of their old-world thinking?
A superannuation war emanating out of Canberra looks likely and it centres on who runs the most popular super funds â€” industry funds.
Why don’t our education systems teach business to everyone? Business can teach life skills missing in Canberra and in many families, like leadership.
With footie season not far away, Iâ€™ve been thinking about the political football that Bill Shorten wants to kick around â€” his Royal Commission into the banks.
Just like Donald Trump and Ronald Reagan, Malcolm Turnbull has to find a way to connect with the majority.
Letâ€™s take a look at what you might be missing because the media invariably goes long bad news.
Stock markets were up again overnight and reporting season here isn’t spoiling the party, so are we living in La La Land, and what happens when the music stops?
If the media won’t tell the good news as regularly as it should, then I will! Here’s a great news story you might have missed.
The US stock market is going gangbusters at the thought of Donald Trump and his promised policies. So how long can this stock market love go on for?
Both online and offline landscapes scream at retailers to do something huge to get customers to love them – but many just canâ€™t cut it.
Over the years, I’ve had lots of readers, viewers and listeners who have asked to invest with me. Now you can with the Switzer Dividend Growth Fund.
In the late 1980s, Paul Keating said even the galah at the local pet shop was talking microeconomic reform. Well, now the galahs (not referencing Trump) and even sensible people like Dr. Phil, are talking tax reform.
As the old clichÃ© goes, sometimes good politics is bad economics and bad politics is good economics.
The expected Cory Bernardi split from the Liberal Party is just another problem for our economy – and the PM – to cope with.
Many economists expect a rate cut after the middle of the year, and a few think a couple are still to come – but growth is the key.
Edward de Bono told me years ago that the high achievers of the world think outside the square. In our Switzer Dividend Growth Fund, we do exactly that.
The surging Aussie dollar has really put the RBA in a pickle. Could they be thinking about cutting interest rates?
The recent pullback of stocks that continued overnight on Wall Street is probably a good thing. Let me explain.
The course of stocks is in Donald Trumpâ€™s court. You have to hope he learns his lesson well and fast but I have my doubts and so do the smarties who trade stocks for their wealth.
The first and third richest men in America couldnâ€™t be wrong on what a Trump Presidency would mean, could they?
Develop the desire to pump up the muscle that powers your focus – you’ll be more like a rooster than a feather duster!
As we rallied around the flag for Australia Day and watched Federer rally with Wawrinka yesterday, over on Wall Street, stocks rallied to beat the 20,000 level!
Today’s inflation number is important for a number of reasons, so let me put my old economistâ€™s hat on to show you why this little number is so crucial.
Donald Trump is an economic experiment and his week-by-week decisions over the next 97 days could help – or hurt – our stocks and super.
Iâ€™d like to think the leader of the free world – with whom we have to deal for the next four (probably eight) years – can turn out to be a positive surprise package.
Nick Kyrgios blowing his two-set lead in the Australian Open can be linked to the failures many of us have with money.
On one hand, Trump is set to possibly usher in a radical departure from conventional politics. And then yesterday, we saw the departure of Mike Baird, a conventional pollie who showed what can be achieved by a professional leader.
I think if Trump can get away with a number of his policies, then stock markets will rise for at least the next two years, and we will be richer!
In 2016, money news was dominated by political stories, but after last year, you have to wonder how much you should care about grandstanding pollies.
Right now, the positive aspects of Trump (lower taxes, more infrastructure spending and less financial regulations) dominate the marketâ€™s view on him. Bad Donald – the anti-free trade guy – has been ignored.
If this witch-hunting goes too far, weâ€™ll only be able to see our monkey politicians in the ‘zoo’ in Canberra, or on TV!
Since a few followers are getting tired of my positivity around Donald Trump, today Iâ€™ll give it a rest and take stock of the latest readings on the Oz economy.
Have trouble sticking to your New Year’s resolutions each year? Here’s how to make sure that – like many of the greats – you become a winner.
From the looks of the Dow Jones, Donald Trump didn’t blow his first real test with the first press conference held since the election.
Is Trump the risk we had to have? Perhaps we need a Trump experience to break out of the post-GFC economic funk that saw central banks rule the world, with limited economic success.
While Streep and Trump were stealing headlines, a little-known chief economist from Deutsche Bank said the new US President might just keep his promise to double US economic growth!
There are times when the structure of an economy changes and some measure on the economy, which might have been reliable in the past, becomes somewhat dodgy.
With the credit rating agencies hovering over us like vultures waiting for a dehydrated explorer to keel over, the only â€˜outside the squareâ€™ play Malcolm Turnbull can go for is to channel Donald Trump!
If we do lose our ‘precious’ AAA rating, which keeps interest rates lower, I wouldnâ€™t be pointing the finger of blame at the Turnbull Government. Find out who the real culprits are.
Here’s my recap on the year that was, as well as the memorable success insights I picked up along the way that will hold you in good stead for 2017.
Iâ€™m giving the negative tales on jobs and interest rates the â€œbah humbugâ€ rating ahead of Christmas, but I wonâ€™t dismiss these outcomes as totally out of hand. Watch this space.
While you were sleeping, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates for – wait for it – the second time in a decade! I’ll drink to that!
If we see two rate cuts over 2017, then we (or our economy) will need it and Iâ€™ll have to get a new economic crystal ball, which has been very accurate for a long time, even if I do say so myself.
I reckon a lot of Aussies would like politicians to do some ‘outside the square thinking’ on getting more tax in from people who arenâ€™t paying their fair share.
An off-market sales trend has emerged in Australian prestige property due to an undersupplied market, better use of database marketing, the rise of the buyersâ€™ agent and increased opportunity for wealthy clients to maintain privacy.
If anyone tries to talk you or the economy down as Christmas looms, I have just one thing for you to say: â€œBah, humbug!â€
When it comes to stocks, I will turn negative one day, but now is not the time! Here are a few reasons for believing in the power of positivity.
The late Steve Jobs once shared three stories from his life with Stanford University graduates – and I think they’re a must-read for anyone looking to change their life for the better.
Anyone who wants to hail this surprisingly bad economic growth number as a sign that our economy is going down the gurgler is someone whoâ€™s programmed for excessive negativity.
We could get a worse-than-wanted economic growth number today, so I’ll be keeping my eye (De Niro style) on anyone in the media who goes too far trying to talk down the economy.
Despite Italyâ€™s potentially worrying â€˜Noâ€™ vote in its constitutional reform referendum, Wall Street is up! Is there anything Donald can’t do?
Good news came out of Austria yesterday, after the country rejected a far-right leader, but there are at least two other matters that could hurt our hip pockets this week!
The first step involves changing you and the second is about changing your target so they see you in a light that makes you irresistible.
Some of my journalist mates and those â€˜expertâ€™ investment experts, who always play the doom-and-gloom card, really need to get a life.
Doomsday merchants are going to wake up to disappointment this morning, with the usually unreliable members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) coming to an agreement!
I thought Iâ€™d have a crack at seeing why we might be nicer to economically comfortable, retired Australians compared to 40-somethings. Here goes.
We need an inspirational leader who makes us concentrate on the important things in life, not all things Kardashian.
There are two important international events coming up and both could potentially trump the Trump rally! Here’s what you need to look out for.
Why do some leaders achieve massive buy-in, while others just can’t get the results that great performers can pull off?
Donaldâ€™s vicious circle that he created for non-believers and the status quo who run America is, day by day, turning into a virtuous circle! Let me explain.
After one nasty Tweeter directed his nastiness at me, I think it’s compulsory that I declare: â€œIâ€™m not your expert! Iâ€™m an educator wanting to build your wealth.â€ The real guru is inside all of us.
Can the rising market be put down to the Trump-o-party effect? Or should we be thanking the Chinese too? Find out here.
2017 should be good for stocks if we can trust Trump and history, but how long does this bull market have to go?
If you’d prefer to be richer rather than poorer as you get older, it’s time to treat your money (and your future) seriously.
I know this might shock some regular readers but the very fact that Donald is the new President has actually given me the guts to ask this question.
The run of economic news is actually more good than bad right now. And since other media outlets specialise in bad news, we like to be different and provide the good stuff, if itâ€™s around.
A big story yesterday explained why your boss is behaving like a scrooge nowadays when it comes to wage rises. But for a lot of us, we shouldnâ€™t really be whinging about it because weâ€™re to blame!
As no one else will write this in the media today, let me give you the best take-outs from RBA Governor Dr Philip Lowe’s speech.
A few week’s ago I wrote about the seven essential habits of highly wealthy people. Today, let’s discuss the most important habit of all that could make a huge difference to the way you live, and ultimately retire.
As of January 20 next year, when Donald J. Trump becomes the 45th President of the USA, we will be witnessing what might be called the “Trump Trickle-Down test”.
What motivated enough Americans to give Donald the gig and how can we benefit from it? At the core of his success is his own drive to win and ability to sell a message.
There could be some rethinking on Donald, but for a second day the market appears to be coping with the prospect of President Trump. Watch this space.
Donald has mastered the TV world that has come out of Los Angeles or La La Land, so I hope he can turn this into an economic reality show that rates its socks off!
We simply donâ€™t need a Trump experience, with 2017 shaping up as a good year. Letâ€™s hope God can prove that there is a God in heaven via the election results over the course of today.
I wonâ€™t be popping champagne corks until Wednesday night when we know the result but I wonâ€™t be buying the bubbly beforehand!
I have decided to rate Trumpâ€™s leadership qualities as objectively as possible using John Maxwellâ€™s 21 Irrefutable Laws of Leadership, based on the best-selling book – here’s what he scores.
One of my key goals as a business educator is to help others be the best they can be and that’s why I say screw pessimism, I’m going long on optimism!
Hillary supporters need a rising stock market to KO a Trump victory! Pray for a couple of good days for stocks before Tuesdayâ€™s poll.
Markets are spooked by the prospect of President Trump, so let’s be fair and have a look at what his economic policies promise and why they might be scaring smarties in the finance world.
The fear index shot up over 10% overnight thanks to Donald, the FBI and those Americans who think Trump is the answer.
I think the chances of a rate cut today are pretty clear. So what should you put your money on at the Cup?
Building your bank balance and assets won’t come by fluke. Here are the seven essential practices of highly wealthy people.
From selling tiles to creating one of the world’s most-loved tourism experiences, Paul Cave has demonstrated the intensity required to turn great ideas into real business success.
Malcolm Turnbull has a love problem- we just don’t love the guy and I reckon it’s because he has a connection difficulty. Let’s look at how he can fix it.
The best tip I can give you in the ‘Super Cup’ is to do the form on your super fund. As I always argue, if anything is worth doing, itâ€™s worth doing for money.
I think deregulation and decisions by the likes of former Treasurer Paul Keating unleashed what I call the De Niro syndrome. Let me explain.
I hope today’s inflation number is bigger-than-expected and that no one says they donâ€™t believe the numbers! As you go about your day, I want you to eat, love and pray for inflation!
I went searching for the arguments for a market crash. So what are the experts saying, and am I still running with the bulls? Find out here.
Yesterday’s jobs data looks at odds with so many other economic readings on the Oz economy. So was it really an economic problem, or a statistical one?
It’s been a crazy week but it might be just the best week of my life. How come? Well, an overdue penny has dropped.
Will the third wave of the Internet be a slow forming gentle one, or another dumper like the second? One thing’s for sure, The Times They Are a-Changinâ€™!
Don’t let the experts and media headlines stop you from making money. There are always opportunities and I will give you a leg up when I see one coming along.
We won’t know until December, but US Fed boss Janet Yellen could end up being the hottest woman on the planet! Find out why.
Doomsday merchants are feeding the media about all manner of problems, with the latest linking an apartment oversupply to a bank balance sheet problem.
I am a great believer that it’s your attitude that determines your altitude and how high you fly, so if you have an attitude problem, it’s time to change that ASAP.
Doomsday merchants were dealt a blow to their usual level of self-assured ignorance on economics, when Japanese steel makers decided to pay 117% more for Aussie coking coal.
From the tennis court to Canberra, it’s clear we have a worldwide leadership problem. Here’s how they can up their game.
Despite a new poll showing Hillary is ‘pants-ing’ Donald, it’s back to the wall of worry for Wall Street. Could this be the start of something bad?
Common sense is not all that common when it comes to politicians – and that’s why good sense has gone out the door!
I have to say, Aussies should point the finger at themselves if they think banks behave badly and no one is doing anything about it.
I want to share with you 50 Shades of Great as I look at 50 highly motivating one-liners, quotes and lessons from exceptional people.
Two potential hurricanes are bearing down on the US, and one is called ‘Hurricane Jobs’, which could strike overnight and blow some ill winds for stocks.
Here’s a seven-step plan to get you money smart and protect your hip pocket from the scary world of banking.
Our banks are like Kim Kardashian â€” everyone seems to hate her, but a great number of â€˜fansâ€™ do business with her!
I felt guilty about not writing yesterday, because it’s my winning process to help you lift your money, business, or wealth-building game!
When these great sporting weekends come along, I like to reflect on what we learn from these high achievers and the standout lessons they offer.
I love football, but this weekend, Iâ€™ll be more interested in how Germany plays Deutsche Bank.
As an economist, Iâ€™d love lower oil prices â€” it should deliver income, jobs and lower costs â€” but in the real world, it scares the you-know-what out of financial markets!
It’s presidential debate season, and some credible economic and data revelations show that a Hillary win is possible!
Here are the crazy events that are bound to be market movers between now and the end of the year – but have no fear!
We tend to know so much about unimportant things like The Bachelorette, but so little about what affects our wallets. Listening to sensible stories could help you get rich!
Whether he knew it or not, Zara founder Amancio Ortega built his success by following the great thinker Edward de Bono’s advice to “think outside the square”.
The bookies are still saying â€œforget about itâ€, but the polls and Master Feng are saying Donald Trump could be the next shock to the world and financial markets.
Property can be a great money maker, but can investing in stocks be as safe as houses? Let’s compare the pair!
Believe it or not, but the Fedâ€™s impact on stocks is huge, and thatâ€™s why I argue with the bank bashers who call central banks boring.
Aussie companies are getting in touch with their feminine side, with the percentage of female directors on the ASX 200 on track to hit 30% by 2018.
The US Fed meets this week, and if they raise rates, there could be a big stock market sell-off because the market doesnâ€™t expect it. So should you be nervous?
When it comes to making self-improvements in your life, this is what you should tell your son, your daughter and maybe yourself!
Should the proposed super changes be called a backflip, or a sign that Malcolm and Scott are listening and taking advice from sources who understand Australians? Here’s a rundown of the changes.
Thereâ€™s something strange going on in financial markets that could be good news, but there might be some short-term pain before we see it as good news!
It’s time to manage your fear. This market movement is a buying opportunity for smart wealth accumulators, but this time, it’s different.
In two days, two Fed Governors have taken the Dow for a ride and, along with it, every stock market in the world!
Whatever happens, it will just be another strange day in the crazy, stupid love affair we have with stocks.
Cecconi’s restaurant is a Melbourne institution. This week I caught up with Maria Bortolotto to learn more about the family behind the legendary Italian eatery and this very tasty business story.
This was a good news economic week and explains why Iâ€™ve been positive on the economy. Here’s what happened.
Could you be better, smarter, more successful, wealthier and happier if your inputs to the likes of Facebook were taken to a higher level?
The media-consuming public miss out on good news, such as what showed up yesterday. Read this to get in the loop.
Now don’t get me wrong, I like controversial calls, but I wish the media would test them out rather than let them go on without question.
Unlike Jerry Seinfeld’s show about nothing, after years of analysing legendary retailer Gerry Harvey, I have to say that this Gerry’s life is a show about something!
Itâ€™s time for the Prime Minister to get the daily political coverage by the media back to the main game â€” jobs and growth.
What’s the ‘big ticket’ to get on the super highway to a self-made fortune? Many of the world’s most successful people have this common characteristic.
Good news could be on the way from the US and while it could lead to a stock market slide, it will only be Act One in this new play for Wall Street and global stock markets.
I thought Iâ€™d test out these outlandish views about a 10-year recession and low interest rates. Here goes.
Disunity isn’t the only issue for the Turnbull Government. We really need to talk about Malcolmâ€™s leadership and ask: who in the hell is advising him?
Paul Murray is becoming one of the most influential political commentators in the country. This Q&A goes deep on his career, his family, his views and his hopes for Australia.
Right now, when Iâ€™m asked about a 10-year recession and 10 years of low interest rates, I say: â€œI doubt it.â€ It makes me a temporary bull not a perma-bull.
These three headland speeches could be â€˜make it or break itâ€™ events for the Turnbull Government.
Now before you start shooting me with your Twitter gun or feedback email, even if you are not interested in being rich, it’s a fair bet that most people would love to end up rich. It could be by design or by accident, but the words of the great comedian, Sophie Tucker, still ring true: […]
Whether they be winners in business, politics, the professions, sport, or even the arts – how do they become the greatest?
Weâ€™re still a gold medal economy and itâ€™s time we started to be proud of it, because negative attitudes beget negative results.
This week, I put multi-talented chef, author and TV host Guy Grossi under the Switzer Q&A deconstruction grill to understand his secret success recipe.
This could be a shock to all you complacent individuals, but interest rates could soon rise and they might spike up rapidly!
There are many things you can’t change, like the political games played in Canberra. But you can change your behaviour! Here are seven habits of highly effective people.
The RBA had a good news story on the Aussie economy yesterday, and it’s my duty to tell you about it!
The radio wasnâ€™t offering what I was looking for last night, so I listened to US motivator Tony Robbins talk about self-confidence.
What has made Phelps great? And what could help the Bronte sisters and every Australian until we end up with a much better economy?
If you want to really lift your performance as an employee, business owner or as a wealth builder, you have to answer two vital questions.
We could kill the economic threats out there but the starting point is that our national leaders must beat the confidence recession first.
Two bankers put our economic outlook into perspective yesterday and itâ€™s worthwhile to look at what they told us.
Today marks Glenn Stevensâ€™ last official speech as the Reserve Bank Governor and the media will be all over this momentous occasion.
For the aspirational person looking for the motivation to try and get to higher levels of success, Tony Robbins is a gift.
These US jobs numbers were the gold medal win of the weekend, in case you missed it and your mind has gone to Rio!
This is for anyone who wants to lift his or her game, and something that strikes a chord with a lot of the audiences I talk to.
Since Malcolm Turnbull has been running the show, is there anything he can crow about? Let’s take a look.
Here’s my reply to some critics who could learn about playing the long game to build wealth. It’s not a sprint. It’s a marathon.
Real world economists think cut rates, while unreal world economists â€” my old academic buddies â€” say donâ€™t bet on it.
ATO boss Chris Jordan not only thinks outside the tax box, he exudes difference. Not only to the previous tax bosses over the past, but to most of humanity.
The worrying story for markets this morning could be one personâ€™s view that weâ€™re on the possible verge of a banking crisis. That’s a big call, so I went looking for evidence.
Trump deserved to succeed in TV land with The Apprentice but I donâ€™t think he deserves to be the last person standing on November 8.
Itâ€™s becoming very possible that the improving outlook for stocks and our super could be trumped by Donald.
We shouldn’t be allowing Pauline Hanson to do all the running on nation-defining subjects- this is a job for a Muslim fear buster. Malcolm, you have to be the main man.
When it comes to money, you need to be committed and focused. You need a goal and you might also need advice, but remember not to be passive!
Do super fund managers – who have been called ‘index huggers’ – really deserve to be copping such flak? Let’s take a closer look.
Jessicaâ€™s commentary on older generations surprised me and suggested it’s more than just an economistâ€™s desire for a better world.
With a healthy level of scepticism prior to meeting a Feng Shui Master, I was bowled over by what he revealed- and could just be a convert!
Right now, good news is trumping bad news and if it holds up, this current market optimism could send stocks even higher.
Does the tendency for Americans to be optimists, and Aussies to be pessimists, explain the appalling performance of the Aussie market relative to the US?
There is a possible explanation for this odd behavior of possibly misguided, pissed off voters. Here’s what I think.
Last weekend’s poll has the F-word for failure written all over it, so what advice can this legendary motivator and business builder offer?
Iâ€™m sweating on a great US jobs number, which is out tonight (our time) and could be a huge story Saturday morning.
I hope Iâ€™m wrong, but markets could get even with our unusual voting decisions that delivered us Pauline Hanson, Jacqui Lambie and Derryn Hinch in spades.
Our economic story, especially on an international comparison basis, is great and should have been held up as something you don’t want to lose.
Developing strong leaders is crucial to the success of a country, just as it is for a family or a business.
For the sake of job creation, faster economic growth and me winning a bet to a free Chinese meal, this is the election outcome I hope for.
As I always argue, when big curve balls come at you from left field, stock players sell first and ask questions later.
The Yanks got up on Tuesday and did what theyâ€™re famous for â€” they shopped! And it was stocks on their shopping list.
It was no Texas Chainsaw Massacre on the US stock market yesterday but I bet our market will succumb to gravity today.
The key question is: will Brexit end up being a money monster that could devour the economic and market recoveries?
Does our PM have the qualities of a superman? His track record indicates he does, but have those qualities deserted him?
We should know the momentous decision by 4pm our time, but if early trends are significant, our stock market could surge or slump!
I hope we can trust the marginal seats data, but as a historian, I canâ€™t get too cocky about what pollsters are telling me.
You had to flick to page 21 but buried inside was a great story about mining confidence! Who would have thought?
Just when we thought this would be a wild and worrisome week for the market, there has been a massive turnaround in sentiment. So what gives?
As Steve Jobs said, being filthy rich is overrated. But it makes sense to be comfortable so you donâ€™t have to rely on politicians!
Malcolm and his team have a selling problem, or maybe there’s just a problem with us, his customer base!
Turnbull canâ€™t see Brexit benefits outweighing the negatives and our stock market currently agrees.
When it comes to Brexit and the US election, these are the two times in my life when I hope the bookies are right.
Growth and jobs are the key. Itâ€™s just a pity these goals are being disparaged by those SOB political pundits in the media!
The tragedy in Orlando could end up leading to other sad events, with one being the election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the USA.
John O’Leary is a man who, with a little help from his friends, turned a personal tragedy into a business that has helped people across the globe.
Here’s what business and sporting greats can teach you about being champions not only in your career, but life.
Our economy is looking good and we should avoid the doomsday merchants if we want growth to continue.
Founder, former CEO and chairman of CommSec, Paul Rickard, has one of the greatest Aussie disruption business stories â€˜never’ told.
A load of economic number crunchers keep talking down our economy but it keeps making a monkey out of them!
Super competes with property as our key nest-egg provider, but is largely misunderstood – so read this.
The Government has a policy selling problem and Iâ€™d start with the name ‘National Innovation and Science Agenda’, which should have been innovative enough to get CFOs interested!
The one thing we all can agree hasnâ€™t turned up to the leadersâ€™ debate in spades is a great leader and the smell of quality, charismatic leadership.
The A.H. Beard business story is an old fashioned one, with a new age twist when it comes to beating the scariest thing of all in a family operation- the third generation death knell.
As Warwick McKibbin argued â€” this might not be a great time to get even with our banks. Letâ€™s give ASIC one more chance to play the tough cop on the beat.
These super changes have underlined that most politicians are just like the people they represent â€” they donâ€™t understand superannuation.
Given what the Government has done on super, it would be in the interest of anyone hoping to build up their super to vote for Bill.
This battleground state could be Malcolmâ€™s Waterloo, if the economic data doesnâ€™t keep improving and super changes keep retirees hopping mad.
Like many entrepreneurs, Luke Mangan was a failure at school but through a passion for cooking, hard work and lucky breaks, his business life is a veritable feast.
The media tends to concentrate on the gripping, but trivial, issues at the expense of the really important.
David and Cathy Harris grew their business Harris Farm Markets through hard work. Now it’s time for their three sons to take over the reins.
Are we set for a sell off and do consumers and the Turnbull team need more negativity from stock markets?
If you want to lift your performance as an employee, business owner, or wealth builder, you have to answer two vital questions.
All Budgets can annoy Australians but I think the people who have the most reason to be disgusted right now are Coalition voters.
ScoMo has been copping it for his super policy proposals and anyone who knows something about super can see why.
Why is the 7:30 Report’s anchor so rude to Treasurers? She’s a great journo who doesn’t need to ask smart Alec questions.
This is a huge day for my old economics student Scott Morrison and I hope he pulls off a big one for himself and the rest of us.
Tony Abbott admitted to me last night that there are two things that are critical underlying issues for next Tuesdayâ€™s budget.
I hope the RBA decides that we donâ€™t need a rate cut on Tuesday but I also hope that theyâ€™re right in their guess!
Having won the late business mogul over with his Wizard business, this boy from Sydney’s western suburbs remains focused on success.
If anyone had listened to and been spooked by Soros, especially in the US, they would have lost a lot of money.
I know the election hasnâ€™t been called but weâ€™re in campaign mode and May could be a make or break it headline month for the PM and his team.
Who’s giving Andrew Bolt his economic briefings? Theyâ€™re way off beam and economic data to date proves they are way too negative.
The failure to reach an agreement on oil production paves the way for a perfect scenario for hedge fund managers and their short-selling ways. I expect negativity on markets today.
The debt ratings agencies have had a chequered history of late and their advice needs to be questioned but they could take away our triple-A rating.
Consumer confidence plunged to new lows despite our stock market bounding up. â€œWhat the #*!?â€
With an optimistic tailwind from yesterday, letâ€™s see what good economic/market things have to happen to make our PM smile.
Right now short-sellers are having a crack at our banks. I wonder what Billâ€™s bank bashing is adding to the negativity that encourages short-sellers.
Iâ€™ll be worried if Arriumâ€™s fall from grace was because of something wrong with our economy but will be a little relaxed if it was just dumb management.
Next week thereâ€™ll be a couple of other tests that could easily scream: â€œMalcolm, youâ€™re in trouble!â€
There is still value in the market despite what the enfant terrible like the oil producers are doing to the market.
The future of stock portfolios looks like it rests on the sanity of the OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers.
Financial advisers should be important to wealth-building for all Australians but the cost and the expectations of clients makes it a very hard game to get it right, especially for women.
Iâ€™ve been a big supporter of the new PM because he looked set to do what Tony Abbott couldnâ€™t. However, he needs a new adviser before itâ€™s too late.
Radio host James Valentine talks family, friendship, the relationships he has forged with thousands of his listeners and being the male version of his mother.
My view is that weâ€™re caught in a battle between bulls and bears. It’s a line ball call on whoâ€™s winning but the bulls are just ahead.
The most important takeout of Yellenâ€™s speech was probably that â€œeconomic readings are mixed and it is appropriate to proceed cautiously.â€
At the risk of annoying my media colleagues, it’s possible that Australia is the best economy in the world.
The human tragedy that is Brussels was buffeted by what looks like better economic news in both Europe and the US.
Given Malcolm Turnbull has ignored my good economic advice to not go for an early election, there must be compelling political reasons for the decision.
Because weâ€™re at an appropriate time in our economic cycle, my best advice to the PM would be â€œdonâ€™t just stand there – do nothing!â€
The Fed has reacted to the marketâ€™s big swings this year but, in backing away from four rate rises, they have foiled those who were predicting a US recession.
Our job at Switzer is always to give insights, even when they are contrarian. This gives our followers the best chance to build their wealth.
Itâ€™s crazy but so many of us are so â€˜busyâ€™ that we ignore the basic things that could make us richer in the long run, let alone the short run!
I know weâ€™ll be stuck with our ragtag lot called the Senate crossbench but Iâ€™m prepared to risk it for economic growth.
Once tagged Super Mario, the ECB boss, could end up being Stupid Mario, following a string of disappointing decisions when there were high expectations that something was coming.
In many ways, the problems with our bankers is partly created by our unwillingness to hold banks accountable when they behave badly.
From my point of view an early budget and an election looks like good politics but questionable economics.
Sure, the Abbott â€˜slap and tickleâ€™ is magnetically newsworthy, however, such trivial matters wonâ€™t make us smarter or more successful!
When it all went pear-shaped on the stock market earlier this year I simply explained that good news was being trumped by the expectation of bad news.
Australiaâ€™s economy is a world-beater! And to steal a line or two from Paul Keating – these were a beautiful set of numbers.
Economic and market data has been mainly good news and the stock market has gone up – thatâ€™s not crazy, in fact itâ€™s logical.
Weâ€™re in crazy times but I believe the best outcome from this week needs to be one that says China isnâ€™t as bad as the market has been thinking.
The PM has to get the big things right. If he keeps playing Malcolm-in-the-middle to the next election, then he could get beaten.
In case youâ€™re worried about big fears out there such as a China slowdown, let me try to de-fear a lot of these frightening possibilities.
Tepperâ€™s proposition is that a housing crisis is coming that will rattle our banks. Believe it or not, he is not the first to call a housing bubble in Australia.
Could the crazy market turn around on a dime and be crazy in the opposite direction? In a word â€” yes!
Better policy ideas will be welcomed but I think we can afford to wait until the May budget for the Government’s economic game plan.
I quite like the idea of a mythical or unicorn rally thatâ€™s here on hope but ultimately is not real!
The biggest problem is not that central banks havenâ€™t got any firepower, itâ€™s that the European and Japanese central bankers were too slow to act.
The real economy outlook is looking OK to pretty good but if the media runs a different story, jobs, profits and wealth could be destroyed.
Have faith in stocks in the long run and donâ€™t be too sidetracked by the falling stock markets and negative press.
This perceived craziness is more a short-term thing and it creates profit-making opportunities for the long-term investor.
Paul Keating largely should be ignored as an objective commentator when it comes to party partisan politics.
Our economy isn’t “going down” and influentials like Andrew Bolt need to tell the real story for the sake of the Australian economy and the people he talks to each day.
This is a crucial week and Iâ€™m praying for another five days where good news takes centre stage.
The best advice Sir Bob was ever given could be a lesson for all us – in business, relationships and life.
The S&P 500 index has shown a close correlation with the falling oil price, so a rising price should reduce the gravitational pull we’ve seen since the start of this year.
Rethinking a very negative view can result in strange market reactions, so I hope thatâ€™s what weâ€™re seeing right now.
Mismanagement by central banks and governments remains a risk but all the economists I respect both here and abroad arenâ€™t seriously tipping a recession.
Enter the Samurai â€” with the European Central Bankâ€™s hero, Mario Draghi, coming in like the noble protector of everything good in an economy.
Stock markets have been selling off, largely on the Chinese economy going to hell in a hand basket, but the country’s growth numbers were only a tad below expectations.
Thereâ€™s a lot of speculation in the bad list of economic data that could change in the not-too-distant future.
China was behind this new spate of stock market sell-offs and it could rub the bad news in today and tomorrow or make up for Fridayâ€™s effort.
Yesterdayâ€™s employment figures show that the nincompoops who were tipping a recession were way off.
Itâ€™s funny that weâ€™re focusing on Chinese manufacturing data and how its reduction has hurt iron ore prices, however, tourist numbers out of China to Australia breached one million.
Iâ€™m not a seller but I will be a big buyer if stocks drop further. But if youâ€™re someone who canâ€™t take a big fall in stocks, then you should think about cashing up.
To be quite frank, I think the sell off is excessive but a market is what it is and right now the sellers are trumping the buyers.
Itâ€™s time for good government and an improving economy. Thatâ€™s what will ensure Malcolm and his team are re-elected.
We still have to work through issues such as energy prices but, at this stage, it looks like the smart investors in the market are having sway over the smarty speculators.
Some of the smartest economic minds in the US think that the US economy is ready to go off life support. That very thing should set us up for a better year for stocks in 2016.
In case you think Iâ€™m the only bull on the planet, let me share with you the thoughts of Mike Oâ€™Brien, co-head of solutions at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Personally, I think weâ€™re now in buying opportunity territory again. This year’s 200-point plus slide has been a signal that a money-making situation has developed.
One of the craziest suggestions Iâ€™ve heard came from someone who should know better, namely Tim Toohey, the chief economist of Goldman Sachs. Toohey has recommended that the Prime Minister opt for an early election!
The critics of the recent job numbers are sour grape merchants and the economy and stock market will eventually prove me right.
So how do I want to bet on oil? Fair dinkum, the experts are split. For everyone who has a strong case for oil going to $US20 a barrel, there are those who are saying it will double to over $US70!
Iâ€™m sorry but I canâ€™t join the pity party around sliding stock prices now because I know this is only temporary.
I applaud any government prepared to inspire and breed lateral thinkers, risk-takers, employers and GDP growers!
We still have a way to go before I am confident that the global economy is out of the woods but this weekendâ€™s economic data has added more to my positivity.
I really want the rally to be extended and better investment as well as growth will be the best ways to ensure it all happens.
To those in the media who want to play down the very good economic growth numbers, let me give you a â€˜play upâ€™ take on what has happened this week on the economy.
ScoMo must play with the force of Messrs Keating and Costello, who had their enemies and dissenters but, in the fullness of time, have been seen as very effective Treasurers.
Locally, we were delivered economic results that imply happiness for lots of Australians, which made me happy.
Iâ€™m currently in Abu Dhabi but Iâ€™ll be watching economic data. I hope I get some sizzling Santa statistics to write home to you about.
The bottom line is that highly successful people recognise what will stop them from succeeding and they then do something about it.
The Turks shoot down a Russian jet fighter, oil spikes on this new potentially-scary Middle East curve ball but ahead of the closing bell on Wall Street, the Dow is up!
Just as we are putting our money on China helping us to create a dining boom to replace the petering out mining boom, we could be losing our â€œfresh food peopleâ€ to the Yanks!
I think the new PM will tread carefully with super. However, if super becomes less lucrative, property will become more attractive.
You all know I carry the can for “positivity” but I wouldnâ€™t if I believed the economists who have been pedalling stories about the economy that even hinted at recession, which some poor Aussies have read and believed.
We simply need the economic data to keep delivering the positive story that has shown up lately, which has been virtually unheralded in the media, and then Santa Claus could easily come to town for Aussie stocks.
My stock market crystal ball suggests that our market will slide today and again on Tuesday, but history shows us that Middle East geo-political events are not sustaining for negativity.
One day, I hope I can say I was wrong and RBA boss Glenn Stevens was right but I need a few months of economic watching.
Our cousins across the ditch have something worth admiring and itâ€™s not because they live with a 15% GST on virtually everything and donâ€™t whinge about it as being akin to killing orphan babies at birth like we do here!
I know the news headlines have focused on the recent falls in the stock market, however, I’ve been treating these dips in stocks as a buying opportunity.
This week, the â€˜Turnbull turn onâ€™ effect – as I call it – will be tested, which started yesterday with a nice pass, as job ads rose for the third month in a row to a threeâ€“year high.
A GST is not an easy thing to sell while winning friends and influencing people. Here are 8 things you should know.
The new internet-created social media age has great attributes but it has some shockers and it doesnâ€™t look like governments are doing enough to sort out the problems.
With the Reserve Bank having decided to leave rates on hold, after months of being a total supporter of the RBAâ€™s efforts, I have to say: â€œNot happy Glenn, not happy!â€
On a day when the country is looking for a winner to deliver a nice dividend, the best result might come at 2:30 pm and not 3pm!
Before the big race at 3pm tomorrow, the Reserve Bank has to take a punt on the cash rate of interest.
The last week of October 2015 could go down in Australian corporate history, when a female became arguably this country’s greatest CEO.
The post-Fed statement positivity for Wall Street lasted one day, with the market not sure if it should cheer the central bankâ€™s apparent lack of negativity or be worried about the first rate rise since 2007.
It has been a morning of surprises on Wall Street, with the Fedâ€™s interest rate meeting leaving pretty strong hints that it might raise interest rates at its December meeting.
Here’s a whole pile of good things that are going on in the economy right now that your favourite media outlet might have overlooked telling you about.
Wall Street was neither too negative nor too positive overnight and thereâ€™s a gradual feeling that maybe, just maybe, the US stock market correction wonâ€™t turn into a bear market, where stocks fall 20% plus.
If anyone wants to tell me that central banks are ruining the world (or something equally catastrophic), I say â€œcrap!â€ Here’s why.
Letâ€™s try to work out why stocks headed higher because it looks like weâ€™re still in this crazy post-GFC investing world where bad news is good news!
My memory of Joe will always be of a great bloke and a great politician but he has shown us all that it is another step up from a great politician and even Minister to being a brilliant Treasurer.
My panel of three wise men on last night’s Switzer show gave a pretty downbeat outlook for the economy, but myself, Charlie Aitken and the RBA are more bullish.
If you want more wealth, you must pay the price of time by making yourself a great D.I.Y adviser, or you should pay someone who can give you the insights to make and save money.
Sydneyâ€™s auction clearance rates have slumped and Westpac is copping the blame – but is it all the bankâ€™s fault?
Men are always confident – surprise, surprise – so the key test is whether female consumer confidence is starting to pick up.
Right now, the reasons for optimism are thin on the ground, so you need to put on your market emotional seatbelt for the next month or two.
The bloodbath yesterday was essentially a man-made Armageddon. Thankfully markets aren’t always that stupid.
Now is not the time to be implementing big structural reforms, we need to get confidence going first!
It was a happy honeymoon for the PM, with the biggest weekly jump in consumer confidence in seven years, but is it enough for a strong marriage?
Kelly Oâ€™Dwyer is extremely capable, but she needs to be as evangelical about small business as Bruce Billson was.
The Fed left rates on hold. Does that mean we won’t see our traditional end-of-year rally in Australia?
A boost from Wall Street, which is still in two minds about what the Fed is about to do, will be good for our market today.
Our new Prime Minister needs to work on restoring faith in the economy, so we can get things going again.
I’m not the only one that wishes our economists and journalists would start thinking a little more positively!
GDP numbers were soft but that brought the dollar under 70 US cents, which will eventually be good for the economy.
It’s time to remember one of Warren Buffett’s most famous sayings: “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”.
Do some ministers in the Abbott Government really think itâ€™s time to sack a guy when heâ€™s on a roll?
It was a hairy last hour on Wall Street as the Dow Jones could have done exactly what it did yesterday – but ended with its best four-year rise instead!
It looks like we’re in for a period of volatility after Wall Street failed to follow our example last night.
Frankly I don’t believe that the China slowdown is going to be so profound that a crash is coming and I just canâ€™t see Armageddon around the corner.
Tighten your seat belt, it’s going to be another rough ride today. But don’t forget there’s always opportunity in volatility.
When markets look grim it pays to remember the success stories â€“ like that of a group of cotton farmers from the Murrumbidgee.
The simple story is that weâ€™re making money slowly. And if you have to wait until January, then why should you care? Where are you going anyway?
There is actually some good news on the economy out there, we just have to start paying attention to it!
Let’s remember the 17% interest rates the baby boomers had to put up with and how no one lamented how tough it was when they were young.
And now for something completely different! The currency devaluation in the yuan has knocked markets off their perch, but maybe it’s not all bad.
Another dip in stocks is probably on the cards as the Fed raises rates, but if confidence keeps improving things should be looking up after that.
Where is the real leadership from our politicians? Both parties are facing a crisis of confidence with their chosen chiefs.
The unemployment rate went up, but so did the participation rate and that shows some signs of optimism.
We’ve had some good economic news recently, so let me list them in case your favourite media outlet failed to let you know whatâ€™s actually going on.
The computer says no to investors, while owner-occupiers are set to pocket great deals. Why doesnâ€™t a Federal politician start to champion the reduction in taxes on property?
Confidence for both consumers and business has been on the rise and if August adds to the positivity, it could be the start of a nice finish to the year for both the economy and stocks.
The wage and super gap is still there – and it’s still not fair – but there are some things women can do to boost their balances.
Australia handled China’s big one day slump in its stride and the US has managed to shake it off too.
Labor has just played out its policy search in public, but where was the debate about how to get economic growth going again?
A lot of hedge fund rock stars in the US have tried to get the market on side to believe that itâ€™s â€œall over red roverâ€ for the Chinese growth story.
With this scary headline, it makes those with a house glad that they bit the bullet. But should you rush in if youâ€™ve missed the boat?
Our current crop of politicians seem to care more about being in power and thatâ€™s the problem.
An increase in the GST is just what we need to boost revenue, and it’s time to give negative gearing a break too.
It’s time to pray for the positives as the US gets into the full swing of reporting season and Europe announces some key economic data.
The IMF might have thrown a spanner in the works but the Greek Parliament has thankfully passed the deal.
It took 17 long hours but an agreement has been reached. Lets just cross our fingers that the Greek parliament goes with it.
It’s the eleventh hour in Greece…again. This time the Greek Parliament needs to approve new austerity measures…again.
So Europe is still nervous about the latest lack of developments in Greece but the Dow Jones was up over 90 points! Go USA!
How bad will Greece get? And what does it all mean? Well the US reaction is key and it doesn’t seem too bothered yet.
The ‘Nos’ are in the majority. Can PM Alexis Tsipras really go back to creditors now and ask for more?
What kind of game is Greek Prime Minister Alex Tsipras playing now? And does it really matter anyway?
Judging from the reaction yesterday, we’re in for a bit of short-term pain. Hopefully things will settle down after the referendum on the weekend, but that’s not guaranteed.
It’s looking increasingly likely that Greece won’t be able to secure a deal, which means you need to get ready for a bit of a bumpy ride next week.
There are conflicting reports on the ground in Greece about the debt talks, but they still have a day to make it all right.
With things settling down a little in Greece it’s time to have a look at how our own economy is fairing, and it’s looking quite rosy.
I’m cheering for Greece, particularly after the news last night which sent their stock market up 9%. I do believe they won’t be pushed out of the Eurozone.
Crucial meetings of Greece and its creditors will happen tonight our time in Europe. Greece really must find a solution to its woes soon.
They might be like a reckless teenager who has run mad at nightclubs on a credit card, but they’re not the only ones!
CEOs who are happy to talk to the media about their strategy and business seem to do a lot better than those who hide in the shadows.
Warren Buffett’s buy into this Australian insurer is big news. But will follow the leader pay off for everybody?
The shock value might make a great headline but that doesn’t mean the good stuff should be ignored. In fact, it might actually be hurting the economy.
Hillary Clinton, Angela Merkel and Janet Yellen are all women over 55 changing the world and they’re definitely not alone.
It might grab column inches and attention for the commentators, but it could also be a threat to our economic recovery.
GDP numbers out today will set the scene for the stock market. And in the US, job numbers out there later in the week could be really thrilling!
Why someone would be insulting to hard working people who work long hours, employ fellow Australians, train people, and pay a lot of tax collectively is beyond me.
For a solution to our debt problem we could do worse than look to our friends in New Zealand and their 15% GST.
So things are looking up in America, but shares are falling? What the? But don’t worry, it’s not time to panic.
For the future of your investment wealth, please remember that if something sounds like a fairy tale, it probably is!
You wouldn’t know it from reading the mainstream press, but there is a lot of good news out there for our economy.
Tribal squabbling, Mad Max style, will only get us into trouble, and this Senate really has to concentrate on getting all these pro-growth Budget measures passed.
Some of these “experts” wouldn’t know how to sell a good idea – like an increase in the GST – to the Australian public in a pink fit!
What on earth is going on with the Aussie dollar! It just won’t stay down and I’d hate to think how much sleep Glenn Stevens is losing over it!
The Treasurer and the Government have pulled the right reins to stimulate the economy with their small business package.
I really hope the Treasurer gets it right tonight, and the Senate backs it. If they continue to pursue obstructionism, it will hurt the economy, close businesses and damage jobs.
The chorus of negativity is rising, but it doesn’t have to be this way. There are reasons to be an optimist and hopefully Joe will add more reasons tomorrow.
A correction is overdue and even the experts are getting a little nervy, but I’m still an Alfred E. Neuman fan and not worried.
So yesterday was a bit of a wild roller coaster ride on the stock market, but is this the start of something much worse? I’m not convinced yet.
What on earth is going on? The cash rate was cut – yeah! – but the market wasn’t impressed, mostly because it now thinks the easing bias has gone. It’s now up to Joe to deliver.
The RBAâ€™s Glenn Stevens and Joe Hockey need to be part of the backyard blitz team and get our â€œgreen shootsâ€ of confidence growing into a garden of trees!
Let’s hope that this time around the visitors from Washington do a little bit of research before they get here!
Hello! I don’t sell products and my financial planning business is one of the fairest in the country. And I’m all invested in shares for those who really want to know!
I’m ignoring the negative messages and paying attention to the entrepreneurial advice from people like Buzz Aldrin.
It’s hard not to be preoccupied with interest rates when it’s one of the few tools we’ve got left to stimulate the economy!
All eyes will be on the price of iron ore this week, a crucial ingredient in the Budget mix for the Treasurer.
We need something to get the economy bubbling along again. But I’d be more than happy if the Reserve Bank decided there were enough positives not to cut.
Houston, we have a women problem! Tony and Joe – start listening to Willie Nelson and pay more attention!
Another rate cut will get the multiplier effect going and the economic engines turning. Thankfully, it looks like the Reserve Bank is on board.
If the Greeks surprise positively this week, we’ll all be doing the Zorba dance, so use any dips as an opportunity!
Yesterday’s job numbers were a plus, but the Treasurer and the RBA Governor still have to do some hard yards to turn the economy. No pressure boys!
Is the market getting ready to sell in May and go away? A sell off is a possible, but that would be a buying opportunity too.
So the data wasn’t great in China, but markets went up! That’s because they’re following the US playbook, which is something our RBA might want to read too!
It’s not a technically significant mark, but it is important psychologically and once we get there, we might see a reasonable spurt higher.
Australia might want to take some lessons from the US, where many expect the Fed will be guided by the market reaction as well as economic data.
Bipartisanship on an issue is great, but proposed superannuation changes could penalise a lot of people who have tried to do the right thing.
Everyone’s got a big idea, but now isn’t the time for boys to be building things when they should be concentrating on confidence and growing jobs.
It’s not all doom and gloom. There are some economic green shoots emerging, you’ve just got to have faith.
My Kitchen Rules might show you how to make a soufflÃ© but it won’t make you wealthier or teach you financial literacy.
Just as his momentum is building again the PM is being bombarded with issues that his Government will have great trouble selling!
Hereâ€™s the list that the PM and Treasurer Joe Hockey would have on a whiteboard of â€˜what happens if they take David Murray’s adviceâ€™.
The S&P/ASX 200 went close to 6000 yesterday, but if technical experts can be believed, we should focus on the 7000-level!
The RBA’s Glenn Stevens is urging Tony Abbott to commit to Budget repair, but I say don’t listen to Stevens â€“ here’s my case for a softer Budget this year.
Janet Yellen needs the US economy to be really, really ridiculously good looking before a rate rise, while the RBA should be thinking of cutting.
It can be funny to joke about money ignorance, but a frugal retirement is nothing to look forward to.
The PM better have a pro-growth Budget in mind, or a dose of “voodoo economics”, if he wants to get the economy going and stay in his job!
Our options to boost the economy are steadily running out, so our central bankers and policy makers need to think outside the box.
He may not have done himself any favours, but the ‘fourth estate’s’ preoccupation with a potential political carcass is not helping the economy.
The US Fed has to be careful not to raise rates too soon if it doesn’t want to cook the golden goose that is the US economic recovery.
You may not notice it when it happens but sometime this year Australia should decouple from the US, so try not to get sucked into Wall Streetâ€™s powerful â€˜follow the leaderâ€™ vortex.
The PM needs to set some big, hairy, audacious goals to get the economy going again and big, hairy, audacious goals can be the secret to your success too.
The low growth numbers yesterday show that the Reserve Bank really should have cut on Tuesday and has to get its act into gear in April.
Waiting is not good for growth, lowering the Aussie dollar or unemployment, so if we need to boost the economy, it’s better to ease sooner rather than later!
We need the powers that be, like the Reserve Bank and Treasury, to think outside the square and encourage the dream weaver entrepreneurs of tomorrow.
Leadership is important, as the troubles in Canberra for our past three PMs â€” Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott â€” have shown.
Who would want to be a Prime Minister right now? The job is getting harder and it looks like Tony might not be in it for much longer.
Because it’s a social science, and people are always changing, economics is always changing too. That’s partly why we need some stimulus pronto!
Since March 2009, Iâ€™ve been right on stocks and anyone that has been following me has reaped the benefits.
Markets will be watching Janet Yellen when she speaks mid-week but at home we need a bit more political stability and some Budget ‘oomph’ to get things going.
Greece now has four months to work out its debt situation. If it can do that, and the US can keep on growing, the markets should have a good year too.
Don’t think of the goings on in Europe as uncertainty, think of it as an opportunity! That’s why shares can be so rewarding.
There’s a bit more underneath this market run up than just hubris, and stocks should be strong for at least the rest of the year.
Confidence is still down in the dumps, which means we need some sane political strategies, not the crazy ones that this Government seems to be in love with!
The Government has until the next budget to boost confidence and growth, and avoid the iceberg that could sink our economy.
The Treasurer has to stop being such a negative nellie and start talking the economy up if we want to get growth going again.
If the Government keeps playing an old game, then the only thing that can be done to lift activity will be more rate cuts!
Tony Abbott has a lot of work to do if he wants to regain the confidence of his party and the people. Here are a few things he should start with.
Tony Wins, albeit unconvincingly, but the game of drones continues and it will until Malcolm becomes king.
The ‘Seinfeldification’ of our world means that we obsess about ourselves and don’t care what happens to everyone else.
He didn’t deliver over Christmas but Santa Stevens certainly delivered yesterday, with his 25 basis point rate cut pushing shares to a record high. 6,000 here we come!
It’s been a long time since central bank meetings in Australia were anticipated as closely as today’s has been. Regardless of what the market thinks, perhaps doing nothing will be the smartest play.
After the gut-wrenching result in Queensland over the weekend for the Liberal Party, Tony Abbott’s address to the National Press Club today could make or break him!
It’s not good for travellers but it’s great for stocks! More dollar falls will help our exporters and the market is already pleased – its had six straight days of gains.
It’s time for the Prime Minister to get it together and start showing us the unstaged Tony. If that doesn’t work, he’s going to have to start looking for his sword.
The PM and Treasurer need a new plan and it’s not giving Phil the Greek a knighthood! They need to get serious about the economy and their credibility if they want to avoid being ‘oncers’.
Even though Alexis Tsipras has been sworn in as PM in Greece, some positivity by stock markets overnight was a relief.
The European Central Bank has invoked Paul Hogan and pulled a real bazooka of a QE program out of the bag. Will it work? Who knows? But it worked in the US!
If you had been skiing in Switzerland last week, you might have found yourself paying more than you ever thought possible for fastfood. But everything should settle down tomorrow if the European Central Bank finally gets serious.
It looks like the major market indices in the US are suffering from a bit of a hangover. But I’ve got my fingers crossed that we’re going to see a mojo market mover from the European Central Bank this week.
India will become one of our most important trading partners and it’s about time we all grew up and started treating our trading partners with respect.
There are plenty of important measures of economic growth to be released this week – both in Australia and abroad – but these potential market movers are a sideshow compared to the European Central Bankâ€™s decision on QE on Thursday.
The team of economists in favour of a rate cut this year is growing, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to happen. Here’s why not.
It was another scary day on Wall Street after it didn’t like the data out nor the US Fed’s Beige Book. But it’s no time to be spooked, the fundamentals in the US are still good.
It was a tale of two halves. The US market had a great start but then lost it when the market got nervous about the short-term impact of the oil price. Don’t expect it to last though.
Do you have the best credit card rate? What about your home loan, is it in the best shape possible? Use this time of year to make sure you’re getting the best deals on all your financial products.
Everyone is expecting the dollar to fall further into 2015, so why did it rise 1.6 cents in a week? Probably because there was a run of positive data out in Australia. But US dollar strength means the Aussie battler won’t stay up for ever.
Things aren’t as bad as they seem and there really is no case for the RBA to cut rates anytime soon, unless of course Europe goes to pot. We really do need a Super Mario performance from Draghi.
The new year is shaping up not too shabbily. Over the next 12 months you should be able to pay more off your mortgage and you might even have a new car.
It’s not usual but negativity in January may not mean we will have a bad year. It will be volatile so hold on for the ride and consider adding good quality stocks.
Peter tells us why one of his favourite investment books, is the one he wrote himself and the lessons that we all can learn from John Kenneth Galbraith.
US markets had a shocker day but don’t despair, it should be temporary and maybe you should be using the opportunity to take advantage of cheaper prices if our market follows suit today.
After a rough 2014, it’s time to shake ourselves off, and get ready for keeping the faith in 2015. And remember, the only thing to fear, is fear itself.
My call on the ASX/S&P 200 might have been ordinary but it’s time to remind readers of some of the great calls on Switzer Daily. If you’d followed my optimism back in March 2009, you would be thanking me now!
Fed chair Janet Yellen has provided a boost to the US market today and the oil price slide might not be a black swan but a white swan that could bring a year of financial happiness in 2015.
The gift that keeps on giving? Well that would be a well-placed OPEC official wearing a Santa suit talking about tighter production quotas.
After what weâ€™ve seen on TV, the governmentâ€™s deficit is not a tragedy but a small problem. All this should put into perspective what is really important: people, their jobs and their happiness.
The Treasurer has got some big decisions on his hands. If we want to get the economy’s engine revving next year, and of course we do, then he really has to work out how to stimulate the economy – not depress it!
On the surface the employment numbers weren’t great but if you dig a little deeper a lot of jobs were added and The Beach Boys might just be right!
After whinging about how terrible the Budget and it’s implications are for the economy, those chickens now look like they could finally come home to roost!
Yes the market fell yesterday but that doesn’t mean it’s the beginning of the end. It’s still a buying opportunity and lower oil prices are still good for growth.
Last night might have been a downer for Wall Street but the bottom line is that a lower oil price actually adds to growth!
Joe needs to remember his rugby playing days and deal with the Financial Services Inquiry like a five-eighth – not a front rower – to make sure it doesn’t kill confidence.
It’s not the newly coined ‘income recession’ you need to be getting your worry beads out for, but the excessive negativity that has invaded the media commentariat!
The Treasurer needs to start singing We are the champions if he wants to get this economy going. I’m very tired of the dirge he’s been humming since Budget day!
The experts on the ground in the US are pretty confident that Fed chair Janet Yellen isn’t going to test out the markets with a rate hike anytime soon.
I am taking a big risk disagreeing with a fan, Douglas, on the future of stocks. Gee, I hope I’m right!
It’s not just the barnacles that the Abbott Government needs to scrape off, it needs to start listening to the right people and get confidence moving again.
OPEC didn’t want to be the Christmas Grinch, so it left output levels unchanged. That’s good news for Christmas shoppers who will have more in their pockets!
I might be the most optimistic economist on the planet but I agree with John Kenneth Galbraith who once said “In economics, the majority is always wrong”. Here’s why.
Just like Pharrell sings “Sunshine she’s here, you can take a break” in his song Happy, today I give you a break from all the bad news on the economy!
You might remember Steve Keen’s long walk from Canberra to Mt. Kosciuszko when he was hopelessly wrong on house prices. So why do I interview him? Because one day he will be right!
After another record close on Wall Street and some positive economic news out of China and Europe, things should be looking a little brighter for the local market today.
The Reserve Bank’s Glenn Stevens isn’t too positive on our economy but what if he’s wrong? Some gurus think that we might do all right, and so do I!
This is the million dollar question, closely followed by ‘Should I put more money into shares?’. Don’t worry, there are still some growth opportunities left.
What if the RBA boss could have been as candid as he liked in his speech to CEDA? Hereâ€™s his speech without all the political innuendo.
If the China deal was so good for us, well why didn’t the stock market head up? It’s complicated but it will happen!
The G20 is over and it’s time to focus on the good news. The agreement with China on trade should provide some much-needed positives.
Has the G20 pursuit for growth goal been railroaded by China and Obama’s new good climate citizen charade?
The Australian economy has a problem and itâ€™s women and Tony, Joe and Mathias need to do something about it.
What’s the freezing frog principle? Well it’s exactly what’s going on at the moment. A build up of a lot of small, but positive, things for the economy.
China could be telling us that good news is about to break out in 2015. Could it be true? It looks like the good oil!
Our banks are safe and they can be safer, but don’t bash them now Joe. Not now for the sake of confidence.
Mario Draghi is a poor man’s Ben Bernanke, but his smooth talking Italian ways are wooing the stock market.
Poor fellow my countrymen when we boo politicians at memorials! Thank Gough Wall Street hit record highs overnight!
The Greens’ Scott Ludlum shot out a hate tweet after Admire Rakti died but he should hang up his guns!
Good news on the US economy, but I’m concerned that too many of my readers might be planning to fail â€” money-wise!
The major US stock market indexes are now in record high territory, and it’s a good reason to be economically happy. Let me explain why.
Did the PM get the wrong speech last night? I really hope his adviser Peta Credlin reads this piece of mine!
A small slip in stocks on the S&P 500, but this is a BIG week for economic data in the USA. Go the Yanks!
The Dow was up 127 points, so let’s look at 10 good things about the Oz economy. And there’s a lot more, so brighten up!
Earnings is beating Ebola but Doctors Without Borders could be Doctors Without Brains, and they could KO stocks!
A Canadian shooting has spooked Wall Street but so has a drop in oil, but in reality good news still beats bad news.
The stock market is down to goodies vs. baddies and the good guys are winning! But for how long? Long!
Stocks here and in the US were up again, so why are our leaders hurting our economy via negative comments?
Great news out of Wall Street and Europe over the weekend â€“ hope it’s sustained. I also ponder why our leaders hit our confidence.
The Dow lost 458 points at one stage, but the negativity brought in the smarties, and it ended only 173 points lower!
I am sick of government officials warning us about the economy. The best thing they all could do is shut the F up!
Yep this is a serious sell-off, but it is just an overdue buying opportunity, but you will have to be courageous. No guts, no glory!
I must correct my correction correction from yesterday. A correction might be coming with the Dow down 335 points!
Back to the Fed minutes where a 272-point loss on the Dow has turned into a 275-point gain â€“ itâ€™s another â€˜only in Americaâ€™ thing!
Is this 272-point slump of the Dow the start of the overdue correction? I hope so! I’m sick of waiting for it.
Footie fans are focused on the NRL grand final but I’m rooting for US jobs out tomorrow! Who said economists are boring?
The Dow dropped 238 points and Ebola was blamed, but there’s a lot of other worrying stuff out there.
Bad stock market news is coming but it will only be temporary, so pray it happens sooner rather than later.
A 200-point loss on the Dow sounds scary but the bad news behind it might be overhyped. The new Putin play could be troubling.
Our stock market faces an intriguing test today. If we drop in the face of a strong Wall Street, then I will give it a fail.
US stocks were down again? But should we worry? The simple answer is nope, but it’s for complex reasons!
Well, the week that could have been a shocker for stocks â€“ with Scotland, the Fed, and the European Central Bank (ECB) all coming out with big decisions â€“ ended up working out to be positive rather than negative for optimistic investors.
I expect some crazy times on markets over the next six months but I reckon by this time next year, we will have made money out of the stock market. My best advice is â€˜fight fearâ€™!
Well, the most powerful woman in the world chickened out. But that said, Janet Yellen has done everyone with a mortgage a big favour! God bless America!
The Dow Jones index slammed on over 100 points and it was primarily helped by two little words! Sure, you might be thinking, what two little words? So here they are: â€˜Considerable periodâ€™.
The dollar is down, down and it’s an up, up for the economy and stock market, but beware the Europeans, the Scots and a timid Fed.
It’s a worry week ahead with the Scots, the Fed and the dollar bound to create some drama for stocks and currencies.
We create 121,000 jobs and the media ignores or insults them! And I argue my colleagues are prone to negativity! That’s unfair – not!
I had to answer unfair Jimbo’s tweet, who complained I have been saying the same thing for 5 years but I’ve been right!
A plethora of economic readings could help or hurt your hip pocket. Stand by, this week will be revealing.
At last, the European Central Bankâ€™s Dirty Harry, Mario Draghi, has pulled his finger out, or maybe I should say his bazooka, and stock markets on the continent look like he has made their day!
Letâ€™s look at this decision to kill the mining tax while delaying the lift in compulsory super for five years, so it freezes at 9.5 per cent.
Have you ever wondered why Qantas’ frequent flyer program is valued over $2 billion? I explain why today.
I think both the Australian and USA economies are heading in the right direction. This week is a big test.
Not even the very optimistic Wall Street with good economic numbers could ignore “Russia Invades” headlines!
Stand by for another day when you get richer via your super funds, with the stock market bound to take the lead from Wall Street after the S&P 500 index beat the 2000 level for the first time ever.
I could be negative on Europe hurting stocks but then Putin was nice to McDonald’s and that’s good news.
The Dow is up a big 175 points! So what just happened? Unexpected good news, that’s what, and I like it!
Everyone is worrying about the wrong things. It’s not the Budget, nor our economy, but it is economic.
I’m sick of Negatalia and so I am taking my readers to Positalia â€” a place where positive stories make the headlines!
More good news that should boost your business and consumer confidence, but it won’t if you don’t hear about it!
Isn’t it great having new businesses such as Uber? But what if one day they take your job or reduce your wage?
What’s rocking stock markets? 20,000 Russian troops on the Ukraine border or a strong US economy? Both!
The only really good reason to think a correction is coming for stocks is that one is overdue! And that’s a crumby reason.
You can never be too cocksure with economies and stock markets, though the former is more â€˜forecastableâ€™, if such a word exists and Google says no, than the latter.
Our addiction to bad news and weird stuff like Jacqui Lambie is no good if you want to be successful or happy.
I had a dream! It wasn’t of Martin Luther King proportions, but it did have hip pocket implications for you!
Beware, good news is coming. I know you might not be able to stomach it, but try, as a favour to you.
Just when it looked so positive for stocks another Malaysian plane crash could rattle stock markets and maybe Vlad Putin!
Rupert Murdoch is now chasing Game of Thrones and a whole lot more! Is there no end to his corporate desire?
Portugal has a bank problem so we all have a bank problem? Happily the Yanks disagree. Hope they’re right.
Is Clive a pesty Budget bastard or someone keeping the bastards honest? An entrepreneurial Don Chipp?
288,000 Yanks will celebrate with a new job found in June and it’s good for our stocks too. Go America, you good thing!
I hate to be like Nelson Muntz, that nasty kid in The Simpsons, but I just have to say â€œha haâ€ after looking at the private sector job numbers in the US.
The stock market looks crazy â€” up one day, down the next, but it really is waiting for a big issue to give it direction.
I am tired of the day-to-day silly movements of stock markets but we’re stuck with them until a big sell-off shows up.
I wonder why we care about crap like Budgets and carbon taxes when Wall Street is more important for our jobs, businesses and super?
The Yanks got higher than expected inflation, which might be a Yahoo moment for Aussie stocks â€” eventually!
Everyone is watching Iraq but I can’t take my eye off China â€” there’s great news there and I like great news!
Playing the stock market means plenty of curve balls, but who would have expected ISIS? What’s an ISIS?
Be wary of journos scaring you with tales of economic woe! Remember, they think negative news sells but it can cloud your stocks judgement.
Budget bad news has been trumped by a higher business confidence reading and some good news from overseas. Remain positive!
A stock market correction looks overdue but good news still outpoints bad news and the bulls have it over the bears.
Super Mario Draghi delivered and stocks were hot. It was not the family-sized bazooka that was tipped, but it satisfied.
We had a great economy on the way up before the Budget, but has Joe’s effort KO’d it? Time and the Senate will tell!
Wall Street is up on confidence and the Budget is down on confidence. Who is running the Government’s dumb PR show?
We have had huge weeks before but this one for stocks is HUGE and data as well as decisions will be critical!
Our economy is actually heading in the right direction and now let’s hope the Abbott team can follow suit!
Here is an explanation why our stock market has underperformed markets of basket case debt countries.
Budget whinging seems endless but eventually it will be trumped by a good economy â€” well, I hope so.
I am sick of ‘experts’ talking about a 50% fall in stocks and spooking investors. A correction is possible, but not a crash, yet!
Tony Abbott, please note â€” nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say some more but make it better for selling the not-so-bad Budget!
The Budget has brought short-term scary news â€” well, I hope it is short-term â€” and I say be wary of short, scary stuff.
This is what Joe Hockey should have said after the Budget: “Private debt is a problem and we’re going to act.”
Tony Abbott has lost the post-Budget popularity contest and you can blame some of their policy decisions and the protracted period where Treasurer Joe Hockey talked about a tough Budget ahead.
Down down, deficit down. Joe and Tony have created a cunning plan. I call this the Black Adder budget.
The Commission of Audit is not the Budget â€” it’s just a smorgasbord of scary things a Government could do.
Budget noise shouldn’t distract you from the signs that stocks are heading up in 2014, so buy the dips!
All the newspapers tell us Budget pain is on the way. That’s OK but it better not spook business and consumers, Joe!
The big worrying story is inflation numbers out today but the good news is the Dow closing in on an all-time high!
Just when the stock market looked like it was heading down, good oil seems to be saying we’re off to the races again!
Why is the Treasurer running the risk of being tagged a Pension Nazi? It might be good economics, but it’s bad politics.
The Nasdaq clean out might be complete but a correction could prove me wrong. I fear a Putin bear more.
We’re in a stock market hiccup, not a drama, but I’m looking for a market Mt. Everest, though not seeing one yet.
Clobbered by 30% in less than a month, I expect Xero to go up today and it should make my 6000 call for the ASX 200 believable!
The market is in up and down mode looking for direction and so is our country, so maybe it’s time for some truth.
Something had to give with Wall Street up four days in a row, but it wasn’t much â€” thankfully!
US economic data is helping stocks head higher and Friday’s job report could be a market-maker or â€“breaker.
The poor old doomsday merchants copped it again with good news vindicating the optimists’ case for stocks.
Imagine a wall â€” a wall of worry spooking Wall Street and a pest called Putin sitting on the top of it. Nyet good for stocks!
Wall Street was up after the stupid sell-off yesterday. The Yellen reaction was crazy and today proves it.
Vlad Putin and US economic data could determine stocks prices this week but a buying opportunity is developing for the courageous.
Putin was the villain of the market yesterday and the rescuer today! Putin has proved stocks are the way to go in 2014.
It’s the economy versus Russia, and that pest Putin and the battle will determine stock prices this week.
I worry about Qantas workers but not the company, not the economy nor the stock market. I also worry about crazy investments!
Today’s Qantas numbers will scream something has to change, but what will it be? It should be an end to the Qantas Sale Act.
Joe Hockey is the toast of Europe and the World Bank and he has helped stocks go higher! Way to go Joe!
The Yanks are buying stocks for no good reason but it means it’s good news for stock buyers generally.
Wages growth is the slowest since records were kept but it could actually be a good thing for stocks, interest rates and jobs!
Macquarie Bank still thinks interest rates will fall. I really hope they are wrong on the economy but right on the stock market!
The stock market is up but like Bill Shorten it might have an Ali G problem â€” can they keep it real?
The Toyota story is tragic for workers and related businesses, but not for an economy on the up â€” good news is building big time.
Fed boss Janet Yellen nuked the correction and a good, good time should lie ahead for stocks, with volatility!
Bad job numbers and Wall Street went up! What’s the deal? Not sure but stocks are still the way to go.
Dip-buyers returned and the Dow went up 188 points, but can it last? Jobs numbers overnight will seal it.
Good jobs news and bad job news overnight in the US, but Friday’s job news will determine what happens to stocks next week.
I’ve been wondering what happened to the correction, but it looks to have arrived. It will prove to be a good thing.
It’s going to be a figure-fest for economists this week and it could have a HUGE impact on stocks. Standby for revelation, consternation and possibly elation!
Wall Street went up, so what happened to the correction? It’s likely to re-emerge but it won’t be too scary.
Another down day on Wall Street and I think we need some really good news to beat the down phase, which really is overdue!
The five day losing streak ended on Wall Street with good corporate news but I suspect volatility will be around for awhile yet.
Two good days on Wall Street and we’re up two days in a row. We’re US-dependent, so I’m looking to NY.
The Yanks’ sentiment spins on a dime and dip-buyers can’t help themselves. Will our dip-buyers come out today?
Is a US correction coming? And could we not play follow the leader? Possibly yes and probably yes! Hope that helps.
The stock market game is tricky at the moment but if you play it from a long-term point of view, you will win.
I’m back and so let the researching, analysing and writing begin! In a nutshell, stocks go higher in 2014.
Tapering of QE3 starts in January and it helps me paint a great picture for the economy and stocks for 2014. And it includes Santa.
Don’t worry about stock market negativity now. In fact, it’s a gift for the forward thinker and investor!
If you arrived here from Mars on Wednesday, youâ€™d now believe that Treasurer Joe Hockey chased Holden out of the country.
The Fed should determine whether Santa makes a belated return to town with their big meeting this week. This could be his last chance.
Root for good US economic news to drive our dollar lower and our stocks higher, even if Wall Street goes negative!
In the short-term I don’t know what stocks will do but I am buying for 2014 â€” don’t worry, be positive.
If you are worried about the stock market â€” get used to it â€” it climbs the wall of worry!
One of the greatest challenges for the Reserve Bank Governor, is how does he get the Oz dollar down and out of the 90 US cent region into the competitiveness-enhancing 80s?
Good news and bad news helped the Dow smash through the 16,000-level, but I suspect it was more bad than good! Crazy, but understandable!
The US patient is now out of danger, so he soon will be on a tapering program until he stands on his two feet. And it’s why stocks are falling.
No news is good news but I want to hear news that says tapering is on the way. That’s when the fun will start!
Carl Icahn has tweeted that he’s “nervous” and stocks fell, but should we listen to big tweeting big mouths?
So, what did Maurice Newman say that got me re-evaluating the reliability of my innate forecasting tool?
I hope Joe Hockey does not show up to Labor’s mad hatter tea party. It can leave a bad taste in your mouth!
We will meet the world’s most powerful woman tomorrow and what Janet Yellen says could hit or help your investing bottom line.
Labor’s silly game it’s playing with the debt ceiling makes them look like the Greens and the Tea Party â€” this is madness!
The market is boring right now but at least it’s not negative, so I am punting on Gai and Singo to have a great Cup day.
It’s Cup time and the silly season kicks off, but will the market be silly or sensible? Economic data this week could determine it.
Experts say a correction is overdue and maybe Friday the 13th could be the day that spooks confident stock players.
Stocks can’t keep going higher â€” can they? I am seeing a pullback possibility, but yes, I remain a bull.
Inflation spiked in September bringing out those who love to predict that the next move in interest rates will be up.
Two experts tipping the opposite for stocks but both could be right! What? Yep, get your fears into perspective.
US job numbers were disappointing and so Wall Street bought stocks! Figure that out, but it makes sense, for now!
Making money on your investments and building a business or a career all come down to what attitude you bring to the table and what you do to be competitive.
Wall Street is avoiding a Faith No More attitude â€” God bless America but not their politicians!
I am just hoping Bill and the US Congress don’t come up short, but I care more about the latter. A lot more!
Obama has gone for Janet Yellen to replace Ben Bernanke as Fed boss â€” this will create more Congress chaos!
Wall Street is getting tired of the US Congress antics and is starting to wave the big stick. I hope they get the hint or it will get ugly.
With the Roosters NRL grand final win on Sunday, it was a great leadership story for both business and politics.
A US government shutdown and a debt ceiling looms, so why isn’t Wall Street really panicking? I think panic is needed.
The crazies in Congress have encouraged a gun-toting crazy outside of Congress, and stocks have dived!
I bet stocks surge after the US Congress comes up with a solution to the shutdown of its Government. History says so!
Bring back Julia Gillard, or could PM Tony Abbott please start talking and creating headlines so we can have other stories, such as the housing bubble preoccupation, out of the newspapers?
Butt-kicking market pressure could happen this week, but will it push stocks up or create another buying opportunity?
So long as those dopes in the US Congress follow the script, sticking to stocks remains the best ‘non-mental’ play.
Experts say a housing bubble makes our bank stocks vulnerable, so why is the world buying them? Go figure.
This housing bubble hype is going too far with a junket for the IMF now being sent to investigate our house prices! Give me a break!
Don’t get too worried by the self-preoccupation of Americans, which has hurt stocks. Learn from dumb old BlackBerry!
When Buffett says a market is fully valued, the market listens. And if Carl Icahn agrees, it’s a double spooking effect! But don’t worry.
I hate giving advice to politicians because their heads are generally so packed with hubris they simply never listen.
QE3 taper stock market euphoria was ditched on Wall Street for Congress fear and loathing â€” only in America!
We’re off to the races in a helicopter and the pilot is Ben Bernanke. Enjoy the ride! The fun will end but not soon.
Who in the hell is Larry Summers? And why do markets care about his resignation? All is revealed in my blog.
It’s been all talk â€” taper-talk â€” but there could be action this week! Will stocks survive? My guess is â€” yes!
When Hollywood retold Rocky Graziano’s story they tagged the movie â€” Somebody Up There Likes Me. This occurred to me analysing Tony Abbottâ€™s first economic week in the top job.
Nothing doing on markets overnight, so what’s inside my investment head right now? Moneymaking stuff!
Bad news could be coming on the jobless rate but I think it will be a short-term issue and definitely ignore housing bubble scaremongering.
Who is scared of the Wall of Worry? Plenty, and that’s why it’s easy to make money for the next couple of years!
It’s the economy, not stupid, but smart investor! That’s the lesson from Wall Street overnight and remember it.
The good sense of the stock market will be tested as an Abbott win has to be good for stocks, but will they go up?
Good news keeps rolling in, but can the election keep it rolling? It’s important for stocks and jobs!
My economic crystal ball has a rosy picture for the year that follows the election, but could take a few months to brighten up.
Abbott and the economy are heading in the right direction provided he can avoid a Hewson cake moment!
The Syrian storm now joins other headwinds lashing stocks, but Wall Street went up. Bulls should love Yanks!
Syria has shocked stocks but is this a hip pocket disaster looming or just another buying opportunity? My money’s on the latter!
This market reminds me of a Rocky movie but which one? And does the good guy win? Check out the preview!
I am bullish on stocks for the moment, but one guy thinks they rise for 20 years! This is too optimistic, isn’t it?
Expect an exciting stock ride this week, and it will come from the excitement machines called central banks!
It wasn’t a Nightmare on Wall Street overnight. Soon, maybe, Ben or Barrack can do a George W. Bush and say: â€œMission accomplished!â€
Unemployment numbers at 11:30am is Ruddâ€™s first Dirty Harry moment on the campaign. Will the â€˜punkâ€™ be lucky?
Can I see a market correction? Nope, but if tapering comes earlier than expected, I could be wrong â€” blissfully wrong!
Kevin Ruddâ€™s economic statement has got me thinking about Harry Potter â€” can we rely on his magic?
Great news did not cause a great stocks sell-off, but what if the jobs report is greater? No fear here!
A down night on Wall Street, but the stocks boom boat is still waiting for you. Are you ready to sail?
Just when China had been written off as a red knight, itâ€™s back on its GG! Oo ah! Is that Mandarin?
Stock markets are expected to edge higher in Europe Monday, receiving a boost after the S&P 500 index on Wall Street still managed to close at another record high.
Good economic reports out of the USA have mixed in with the intelligent communications of Ben Bernanke in his testimony on Capitol Hill, where he virtually said he would not taper until the economy is so strong that when it happens, you won’t need to sell-off as if it is the end of the world. […]
With Ben Bernanke not saying anything in his testimony on Capitol Hill to make or break this rally in stocks, and given what the Prime Minister is up to, and the reaction to my story about him and the fringe benefit tax (FBT) changes for car leases, I think, to steal a movie title — […]
Wall Street is waiting on the Federal Reserve boss Ben Bernanke and his testimony on Capitol Hill tomorrow. What this guy says about tapering could be a big market maker, or breaker, but even in the face of this unknown, the sell-off was small. But locally, the promises of Kevin Rudd are set to upset […]
Not surprisingly, Wall Street remained focused on the two local e-shows — economics and earnings — though there was a sigh of relief when China’s economic data came in on expectations after some influential forecasters went negative on the data before yesterday’s release. Despite a muted response to the Chinese data on GDP, retail and […]
If Kevin Rudd is so unpopular with business, then answer this question — how come the stock market is up 6.8 per cent since the day he became Prime Minister? One answer is that it’s a coincidence, and other factors such as Ben Bernanke’s ‘no tapering soon’ hints, as well as Chinese stimulus talk, were […]
Australia is at a turning point, and the Ashes series, which starts tomorrow at Trent Bridge, could become the symbolic marker of us losing our battler country tag to one that is set to be a real improver. No, this isn’t a sports story, but one where the parallels between sport, the economy, the stock […]
You would have to be brave or crazy to tip what will happen to stocks this week — these are volatile times and there are so many potential left-field events out there, it’s doing my head in trying to make predictions. Of course here is one I am happy to put my reputation on — […]
Bill Clinton once advised “it’s about the economy, stupid,” but when it comes to stocks here and in the USA, the economy is definitely crucial and so are earnings. And the Yanks have started with Alcoa coming in better than expected, which helped the likes of BHP yesterday. Meanwhile our earnings season starts next month. […]
In case you haven’t noticed, we’re playing a waiting game and it’s damn annoying. We’re waiting for an election date, the stock market to take off again, the Reserve Bank (RBA) to cut rates again, Aussie consumers to start spending as well as borrowing, the US Federal Reserve to start tapering, China to do something […]
There were three big revelations yesterday but only one counted for stocks. First, unemployment came in badly here, rising from 5.5 per cent to 5.7 per cent, which puts pressure on the Reserve Bank (RBA) to cut rates again next month. In fact, if they don’t, they are bloody idiots and tragic slow learners. Next, […]
In case you missed it, in the USA it’s Independence Day, or 4th of July, for those are less historically-inclined, but the question is can we remain independent — stock market wise — or should we be influenced by what Europe got up to overnight? I suspect, given what we saw on overseas newswires, we […]
There might be a military coup on the make and Portugal could be lurching into a full-blown GFC-debt related political crisis but the good old Yanks remained positive, albeit a little affected by external events. Gotta love these guys and gals and their positivity! Despite our volatility with a capital V — three days in […]
Which way will we go today? Will stocks rise or fall? Well after two crazy days where we were down 1.9 per cent and then up over 2.63 per cent, it’s anyone guess when the Dow as only down 42 points or 0.28 per cent to 14932.41. More importantly the S&P 500 was virtually flat […]
When Macquarie’s Martin Lakos arrived at the Sky News studios last night before his interview with me, I asked the obvious question: “What in the ‘f” happened on the stock market today?” He admitted he and his team at the investment bank was just as surprised at the severity of the sell-off. After all, it […]
No surprise that Wall Street took a breather after a three-day rally, especially when some of the reasons for the falls a week ago are still there for hedge funds, short-sellers and other chronic bears to have a bit of fun with, at the expense of forever hopeful bulls. Those factors include: the Fed will […]
Another great night on Wall Street which should again help Aussie stocks but the new big question is — is good US economic news really good news for stocks? You see, the market commentary overnight was that good economic data in the USA along with Fed officials pouring water on an early reduction in the […]
While we have been torn between the drama of the end of Julia Gillard — another Labor stabbing! — and Kevin Rudd’s resurrection — a rare Labor de-stabbing! — and the poor timing of putting this up against the State of Origin, many might have missed our stock market’s 75.7 point bounce-back taking the S&P/ASX […]
I am 23 years of age and I want to create my own financial plan. I don’t think I can afford to go to a financial planner as I only earn around $50,000, but I know the people around me who are wealthy all have had great advice from intelligent accountants, financial advisers and stockbrokers. […]
Forget about the PM’s hullabaloo about her knitting a kangaroo for a Royal family she has campaigned against as a dyed in the wool Republican. Let’s focus on the good news aplenty that has to help stocks today. If it doesn’t, either a new piece of bad news shows up or investors driving our market […]
When I went to bed, late last night, the Dow Jones index was down over 200 points. Incredibly, I slept very well until my alarm went off at 5am instead of 6am! After that, the mind battled with “I’ll grab another hour” versus “what’s happening on Wall Street?” And with 20 minutes before the close […]
Fear and loathing of a 2010 to 2011 kind has been avoided so far with Wall Street ending in positive territory despite all of those ‘terrible’ problems that unnerved serious investors last week. If this was two years ago, the bad news of last week would have turned into a massive market drama and we […]
I know it’s hard to do, but with markets nose-diving or to be less dramatic — correcting after a massive run up since mid-2012 — it’s time to relax and wait for the time to buy in. Regular readers know I have been waiting for this US sell-off — it’s way overdue — but the […]
Do you believe we are heading for a recession? I am worried as my business is just starting to look OK. No I don’t. The local economy has slowed down and the only thing that will push us into recession will be a surprise development from overseas. The Reserve Bank has now cut interest rates […]
So, what just happened? Stocks have been slugged this week but Wall Street went positive. Wait a minute! If you took seriously the negative news types who have been covering the stock market over the past week, we would have a recipe for a market madness post-GFC-style. So what happened? The Nikkei in Japan was […]
The Reserve Bank’s (RBA) stupid decision hasn’t only been underlined by the poor economic growth numbers, that in all truth were created by the Bank’s inept policies, it has now been made worse by Wall Street looking like it’s going to put on the overdue sell-off I’ve been expecting. On a related topic, I have […]
What we’re seeing right now on the stock market is the pullback that was overdue, but the only head-scratching development, or non-development, is that Wall Street is still heading up. Overnight the Dow put on 21.73 points or 0.14 per cent to 15,324.53 while the S&P 500 added 6.05 points or 0.37 per cent to […]
If you’re asking if our 100-point sell-off on the stock market yesterday was an overreaction, I’d have to say “you’re darn tooting it was!” When you added in a confusing message from the US Federal Reserve boss, Ben Bernanke, which wasn’t really confusing, and the slightly disappointing manufacturing indicator from China, you had a recipe […]
The US central bank — the Federal Reserve — has virtually confirmed what most of us expected, that it will ease up on the third round of quantitative easing (QE3) some time this year and in all likelihood end it next year. The end-result of this admission was that the Dow Jones index slumped over […]
The greatest payoff of travelling overseas is that you take the focus off your own backyard and take in some of the big international issues that really should not be ignored. Last week, when I was in Greece, is a case in point. The Greek’s past behaviour has not only shown what we need from […]
Wall Street continued to show that it was less afraid of quantitative easing (QE) tapering than we are with the Dow up 138.38 points or 0.91 per cent to 15,318.23 and the S&P 500 12.77 points or 0.78 per cent higher to 1651.81. So what is going on? Yesterday, on a day when our market […]
The big question bugging local investors has to be — why are the Yanks so positive on stocks now while our “markets are in turmoil” as one newspaper put it? Let’s deal with the less complicated Americans first. Why? Why? Why? The fretting about whether the Federal Reserve will or won’t start tapering quantitative easing […]
At long last Wall Street has had a negative night — but it was not dramatic — and you can bet our stock market will follow this negative lead, but we have often ignored the positive days on the New York Stock Exchange. So what gives? Even though Treasurer Wayne Swan gilds the lily about […]
I know the pollies’ rip off is another annoying issue where they could steal $20 million from the public purse but for you personally, the loss is insignificant compared to the gains from playing the current market challenge like a pro. Other estimates put the ‘heist’ at $58.1 million, and it’s a worthwhile battle for […]
They say a week in politics is a long time as our Prime Minister has found out for too many weeks over the past two and three quarter years, but a week is proving a long time in economics as well. Looking at the behaviour of the Aussie dollar and the local stock market over […]
For those who are too worried that the latest fall in stocks — around 261 points since Treasurer Wayne Swan revealed his Budget plan or five per cent — is a local problem, well think again. This is the way the BBC explained the problem for stocks a few days ago: “Global stock markets fall […]
Most regular viewers know I have been conducting a campaign against the RBA and it was driven by my fear that we would slow down to these current levels of growth. If they didn’t move to cut over the past 18 months, then a recession would have been a big chance. But now the Bank […]
I’m just back from a week in Turkey — the riots started in Istanbul when I was there — and then a week in Greece when some good prognostications came out on the Greek economy. With 27 per cent unemployment, you don’t get good news there often. I love getting away because it widens your […]
Last week was spent in Istanbul, the scene of dramatic riots, however the first sign that we were in a potentially dangerous situation was when friends and family contacted us to see if we were all right. If the Turks are in a revolting mood, the protestors seem to have a healthy respect for tourists. […]
Inexplicably, stock markets seem to want to care about insignificant things such as Turkey riots and a Japanese central bank decision, but one thing is clear: there’s no solid news to take stocks up or down right now. I believe the best thing that could happen would be to get a US sell-off out of […]
The Gillard Government in its third Budget and its Treasurer’s sixth economic effort has come up with a political document, just when we needed an economic one. However, its forecasts, unlike last year, while on the optimistic side, actually are more believable than last year’s! The Budget has gone from an intended $1.5 billion surplus […]
Another day on Wall Street and the bulls are still in control, but will they keep running when the Federal Reserve starts to taper the third round of quantitative easing (QE3)? That could be a massive market test that will initially send share prices down. Yesterday I suggested they would fall, but not for long. […]
As the old saying goes — a picture paints a thousand words — well, the chart below doesn’t need a thousand words as it screams a pullback on the Dow Jones and Wall Street generally has to come, and overnight the market gave it a test run. At its worst, the Dow was down around […]
Wall Street endured a sizeable sell-off with the Dow down 208.96 points while the S&P 500 lost 1.43 per cent in a single session. So with the fear index climbing, the obvious question is — is this the start of something scary? The question is very relevant, with a crucial US economic read out later […]
The Reserve Bank (RBA) has again run the risk of being called a turkey after leaving rates on hold, yet implying itâ€™s ready and willing to cut again. This hardly makes much sense. Either you know the economy does or does not need any more cuts, and if it does, as was hinted at, why […]
Be warned – just when many in the media will be trying to scare the pants off you about Japan, Turkey, bond yields, the end of third round of quantitative easing (QE3), China’s slowdown and anything that can be pulled out of the negative knapsack, we’re actually heading towards better times — locally and globally. […]
Anyone shocked that Ford is heading for the exit door really shouldn’t be. Most of our manufacturers have been under pressure for a long time but it took the dollar’s elevated exchange rate to bring the issue to a head. And that issue could be provocatively summed up by — it’s Ford today but who’s […]
Thank God Wall Street continues to keep my optimistic fires burning with another day of no big sell-offs, which means what we’re getting are nice rises followed by little down days. This confirms that the buyers are strongly outnumbering the sellers. Okay, hold that nice thought and now try walking a mile in my shoes […]
Stock markets dropped overnight with the S&P 500 down over two per cent and it coincides with that period — May — which often leads to a sell off. Recall April can be a really good month for stocks and our market was up nearly three per cent last week and so a pullback is […]
Despite some challenges overnight on Wall Street, again the Yanks have finished in positive territory. So, what gives with this positivity? For scorekeeper-types the Dow was up 60.44 points or 0.4 per cent to 15,275.69 while the S&P 500 rose 8.44 point or 0.51 per cent to end at 1658.78. The good and the bad […]
What happened to the China fears that were supposedly hurting stocks last week? Behind the sell-off was weaker than expected economic data in the USA, Europe and of course China. US earnings have also not been flash, but no one actually expected them to be. Despite all of this, the Dow was up 10.37 points […]
Here we go again with material stocks copping it and some ordinary earnings spooking Wall Street. So, what’s new? The strategy has to be to sit and wait for a decent pullback and load up on the companies you like. By the way, we saw that in Australia yesterday with the banks the centre of […]
I noticed that the guy who was credited for picking the crash of 2007, Nouriel Roubini, has now changed his recent warning tone about stocks will fall and is now predicting a big rally, then a crash! Well, blow me down with the bleeding obvious, but I have to say his well-reported observation opens up […]
Yesterday it was doom and gloom on Wall Street, but predictably dip buyers and the smarties have come back buying stocks overnight. And we’re bound to follow suit today reminding me that the great Russian writer Leo Tolstoy gives us a clue to help play the share market sensibly. He once referred to people who […]
Over on Wall Street the Yanks are hitting all-time highs but here we’re still some 1600 points off the levels we last saw on 1 November 2007 before the GFC crash hit. And while there are many things to explain our lagging behind the Yanks, one big issue plays itself out today and that’s the […]
It’s leak time — that’s what the weeks and days before the Budget have become as the propaganda experts try to massage the electorate ahead of the big night — Tuesday at 7:30pm — when Treasurer Wayne Swan does his economic show and tell. The great news for the Government is that stock prices are […]
Good news kept the Yanks positive on Wall Street with the S&P 500 dancing in record high territory again. Helping the positivity was more good news on the US housing sector, the view that earnings in the States are OK especially considering some of the slow economic data and the revelation that Italy has finally […]
Day one in May in the USA and the selling has started, but will the key market players go away? Economic data could determine it and the Yanks got some ordinary stuff overnight which trumped the Federal Reserve’s commitment to stick to its quantitative easing play. The end-result was the Dow was down 138.85 points […]
With Wall Street not giving strong messages for investors, I want to shine the spotlight on one of the world’s smartest investors — Bill Gross of PIMCO, which is the world’s biggest bond fund player. Gross says global governments have to ditch excessive austerity programs and he clearly was looking to Europe and the Poms […]
One thing I never want to do is write for the sake of writing. My daily blogs are to keep you informed so you can make the best decisions with your investments, but if the relevant news is sparse on the ground, then I will keep it short. Overnight, Wall Street was negative and this […]
It’s May 1 here, but it’s still April in the USA, and once again Tuesday has brought another up day — there hasn’t been one negative result on the second day of the week this year. But the test is now on, and it’s all about, will there be a sell-off? The Dow was off […]
Wall Street hit new record highs and consumer sentiment spiked incredibly higher over the weekend, which moves us closer to a time when the Federal Reserve could start draining the punchbowl that has kept market spirits high. So, it raises the question — would too much of a good thing, that is great economic news, […]
May is looming and regular readers know I often make reference to the old market maxim — sell in May and go away. It often works out, but it doesn’t always and the nervous Nellies that can jump and bailout when a sell-off seems to be happening will be given a few tests and palpitations […]
It’s been a long time coming but volatility is here, coincidentally as the old “sell in May and go away” test looms. And so the key question is — how low could it go? Of course I’m talking about the market and last night on my Switzer program on the Sky News Business channel, my […]
The local market makers are going to find it hard to sell stocks today after Wall Street responded very positively to better than expected jobs numbers in the USA. Now remember the big issues driving stocks right now are economic figures — facts and forecasts — with the doubts about the strength of both of […]
Everything I have been predicting about positives for the US economy and ultimately for stocks came together overnight and Wall Street liked it. The Dow was up 84.79 points or 0.63 per cent to 13,596.02. Meanwhile the S&P 500 put on 8.31 points or 0.56 per cent to 1480.94. It should be pointed out that […]
Could the Dow Jones — the most looked at stock market index in the world — really make the 20,000-level in this bull market? I know it’s an outlier prediction and it has been made by a guy who cops a bit of flak for being an optimist, but Clifford Bennett of the White Crane […]
The Dow has closed at its all-time high and as an economist who has been fighting against the Doomsday merchants who have been wrongly scaring people into safe, low-rewarding investments since 2008, I can only quote the nasty kid, Nelson Muntz, from the Simpsons: “Ha, ha!” The Dow pulled up stumps 125.95 points or 0.89 […]
Anyone wondering what is happening to a once great store and stock — David Jones — all you have to do is look at its leadership. Its CEO blames online competition, widespread price deflation and its strategy to drop unprofitable promotions during the Christmas period. These are just excuses and the real reason is the […]
Wall Street finished in positive territory over the weekend and Cyprus was said to be a reason, but at this stage we don’t know if a good solution will come out of Brussels. The Eurogroup — the European Union (EU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB) — are trying to […]
The Cypriots said no to the proposed tax slug on savers that topped out at 15 per cent and now the big question is — what happens next? Uncertainty now replaces the fear and loathing of a saver’s tax, which could open up the door on other debtor countries being asked to impose such a […]
Lately our PM, Julia Gillard, is giving so much away. There’s $14 billion for better schooling, a very fast train, $1 billion for Sydney’s M4 tollway, help for the disabled, no threat to penalty rates, a barrier to foreign workers and of course there’s the great NBN — a gift that will keep giving — […]
Another big close on Wall Street that undoubtedly will have positive effects on our stock market today, but someone has to ask the question — can this last? The answer, of course, is no it can’t, but let’s just enjoy it while it lasts. I’m not a trader but a long-term investor, and so I […]
Again Wall Street defied gravity with small gains on the Dow and the S&P 500, and you would have to argue that the market momentum has slowed to a trickle but it remains positive. On the other hand, Asia is noticeably more prone to embrace the negative following China’s slightly disappointing data recently and the […]
Last year Treasurer Wayne Swan was too responsible and was tricked by Treasury’s less than accurate forecasts for economic growth — the end result was not a planned surplus but a bigger than expected deficit. I recall a scene from an old Seinfeld episode, where Jerry advised his friend George that as he complained that […]
Okay, the history of Wall Street points to the market maxim ‘sell in May and go away’ as being historically reliable, but with the Dow up 130.63 points to 14,831.58 following some good economic news, will it be a case in 2013 that the advice should be ‘buy in May and stay!’ Significantly, tomorrow morning’s […]
It’s the start of another week for me watching markets for signs of a pullback for stocks, but this is only a short-term preoccupation, as I’m a buyer of dips on the market. The more important targets on my radar screen are the longevity of this rally, the health of the Aussie economy, and could […]
I know the normal person cares about the hip-pocket effect of the Budget and there will be plenty of coverage of those dramatic issues in the newspapers, on this website, on TV and across the air waves of radio. But I always like to look for the real issues that will affect the big things […]
When the Treasurer let us know that the promised surplus of $1.5 billion ended up being a $19.4 billion deficit, and this will be followed up by an $18 billion deficit next year, you couldn’t help but think, why would I take seriously any other number this guy will utter? Sure, forecasting is difficult but […]
The Abbott reply to the Budget has cut the ribbon on a four month election campaign but if the Opposition leader can maintain the strong, “I look like a grown up” image he delivered in Parliament last night, then Labor’s worst nightmares of a complete rout on September 14 could actually happen. On Wall Street […]
The question I’m asked often is what will sustain the rally in stocks? I have answered this question with a range of factors from a continued US recovery, ditto for China, bond yields remaining low for European governments and no left-field events that could rock this rolling snowball of confidence that is building. Mario Draghi […]
Wall Street refuses to worry and is avoiding a big sell-off as it seems hell-bent on beating its historical close of 14,164.53. Maybe it’s there where the market will test itself, but who knows? I argued a few weeks back that it’s all about the excessive stocks surge needing a pullback, versus the rotation of […]
The experts think Wall Street is starting to be spooked by Cyprus, but I reckon it’s more the case that profit takers know the Dow can’t keep beating all-time highs. Pullbacks are good as long as they don’t get out of hand, and as long as US and Chinese data remains positive, we should dodge […]
Wall Street had another reinforcing day for the rally with a good jobless claims report helping enthusiasm for being long stocks. Meanwhile locally the case for another rate cut has been building with a week of economic revelations that suggest we’re not out of the slowdown woods yet. On Wall Street In New York the […]
The Yanks are on a public holiday, so our stock market will be locally driven. And given what we’re seeing from better than expected company reporting, the inclination will be to the upside. The usual stars, such as CBA, have kept doing what they usually do, but even the likes of one-time basket case, Bluescope […]
Another Dr Doom — Marc Faber — is warning another crash is coming, suggesting the world will suffer a ‘Cyprusfication’ everywhere! He tipped doom last year too, but got it wrong and so he’s punting on 2013 as a year when he regains his status of being a big call merchant. I gotta say, the […]
The US rally got serious overnight with the lagging Nasdaq index hitting a 12-year high and the Dow and S&P 500 once again breaking into all-time high territory. It’s hard to be negative when the likes of Macquarie are saying this rally has legs as long as three-years and they have now ranked BHP Billiton […]
Well I’ve been talking about an overdue pullback in stocks, and maybe it’s starting now with Europe blamed by the Yanks for the weakness on Wall Street overnight. However, today’s main game is the Reserve Bank’s (RBA) decision on interest rates, and they better cut, though I have my doubts. Why should they? It’s simple […]
It’s essential to protect your investment with the appropriate insurance, which includes building, contents, public liability, workers’ compensation and loss of rent due to damage or tenants simply not paying. Insurance is a very low cost item for a landlord yet one in five Australian landlords don’t have it, according to a survey by research […]
Is this the turning point for this rally, with a weaker than expected consumer sentiment story in the USA? Or is this just a typical media beat up in the absence of a really exciting story? Who knows? I do have a leaning to the latter as a month’s consumer sentiment reading means nothing while […]
Overnight, the focus on Wall Street was whether the Dow could beat it’s all-time high of 14,164.53, but more importantly there’s a growing swell of experts really getting unbelievably bullish. Of course the eternal optimist who argues that he isn’t so inclined — Clifford Bennett — thinks the Dow is off to 20,000 in this […]
The Reserve Bank (RBA) did what was expected. The economists said it would, but that doesn’t mean it has done what it SHOULD have done! No way! Even as an economist I can admit that this rate cutting caper is a guessing game — the amount of science in it is akin to doing the […]
Apple’s disappointing revenue performance has hit the world’s most valuable company for a stock price six. As it is some 13 per cent of the Nasdaq, that index has been clobbered, but the Dow and S&P 500 indexes defiantly were positive for most of the Wall Street sessions. A big plus for the S&P was […]
All of us expect a pullback or correction sooner or later, but the Yanks just won’t give in and say ‘uncle’ with Wall Street up again. Locally we seem trigger happy, always trying to anticipate the sell off, but those Americans, at least for the moment, won’t go along for the ride. UBS managing director […]
With the Dow now around 280 points off its all-time high of 14,164.53 and the S&P 500 fighting it out at the psychologically important 1500-level, the question is can this rally keep rolling on? The good news For the record the Dow was down 13.05 points or 0.10 per cent to 13,881.93 while the S&P […]
The refusal to sell the Dow by investors is nearly the opposite of what persisted in 2008 and early 2009 — it was all about sellers and while there were bursts where smarties had the guts to buy great stocks at unbelievable prices, the vast majority of investors sat on the sidelines waiting for the […]
Stocks have finished mostly lower despite a stronger-than-expected manufactured durable goods report and a nearly 2% lift from Caterpillar earnings. At the close on Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 13.06 points (0.09%) to 13,882.95. The broad-based S&P 500 fell 2.71 points (0.18%) to 1,500.25. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index rose 4.59 (0.15%) […]
Yesterday I posed the question: “Could the Italians steal our rally?” Well, it looks like they have, but will they kill the bull market? I don’t think so. The Dow gave up a big 216.4 points or 1.55 per cent to 13,784.17, while the S&P 500 lost 27.75 points or 1.83 per cent to 1487.85. […]
I believe Tom Piotrowski on most market things, but not him on me when it comes to interest rates! By the way, for those who care, Wall Street’s positivity show continues and it’s bound to help our stock market. Interestingly, there wasn’t any standout news to explain it, therefore, I think I’ll take time to […]
There was talk that a pullback on the stock market was close at hand after such a big run up, but the Dow finished nearly 150 points higher and punched through the 14,000-level for the first time since October 2007 — that’s pre-GFC. So you might be asking, is this a never-ending rally? You could […]
Two fears were dealt with on Friday in the USA and Europe. Better economic data helped the latter, while bullish comments from someone called James Bullard were positive for the former. Bullard is the president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, and he relieved those dependent on a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) for […]
It’s hard to beat history and history told hardhead market watchers like me that after a big run up, a pullback was overdue and this looks like the start of it. However, it could be a shallow dip and so those wanting to get into stocks will still have a timing problem. Dennis Gartman who […]
It has been my experience that my Dutch friends are pretty direct and aren’t experts on the subtle. And it was this penchant for telling it the way it is that has spooked stock markets following the initial positive reaction to the Cyprus bailout. Wall Street headed down, but it was the negative lead from […]
Is there anything that can stop this rally? Of course there is, and it will happen, but it will turn around again and keep rallying. This is what this persistent inclination of investors to keep buying stocks is telling me and it’s typical of a bull market. A big reason why stocks keep going up […]
Another day and the rally rolls on for Wall Street with the Dow onto a new record close of 14,296.24 — that’s up 42.47 points or 0.3 per cent. Meanwhile the S&P 500 index is being lured to its all-time high close with only about 24 points to go before it beats its 2007 best […]
Record participation of senior workers in job market: Over the past year, participation rates hit record highs for the 65 years plus group; the 60-64 years group; and the 35-44 years group. Fewer young people in workforce: The workforce participation rate of the 15-19 year group stands at 19-year lows as more young stay in […]
The Australian share market closed half a percentage point higher as investors chased higher yielding financial stocks. At the close on Friday, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was 25.0 points, or 0.52% higher at 4,835.2, while the broader All Ordinaries index was up 25.1 points, or 0.52%, at 4,858.9. On the ASX 24, the March share […]
Fewer hours worked: The average number of actual hours worked by employees in the year to December fell to a record low of 32.0 hours. Chinese manufacturing expands again. There were further signs of recovery of the Chinese economy with the HSBC “flash” Purchasing Managers Index rising from 51.5 to a two-year high of 51.9 […]
It’s another positive day on Wall Street, and while there are many good reasons for stocks to be heading higher, the most important factor has been central bank action to stimulate growth. The real star for the past year has been the super Mario Draghi who heads up the European Central Bank (ECB). Of course, […]
The stock market has slipped into the “I dunno” zone, where I expect a pullback after a great run up and that’s actually happening in Europe right now where stocks are at a two-month low. However, I’m comfortable on my long run view that stocks head up and the fact that the euro is getting […]
The flow of good global news continued over the past week with: flash manufacturing conditions PMIs rising in the world’s big 3 regions, ie China, Europe and the US; Japan adopting a 2 per cent inflation target and open ended quantitative easing; and an extension to America’s debt ceiling. This all further enhances the positive […]
After a massive surge for stocks since mid-2012, reinforced by another since November, the charts guys think a pullback is overdue but there has to be a trigger and we might have got it last night via Wall Street. The bogey was a bad GDP read for the final quarter, which came in negative! The […]
Newsletter Web version | Update preferences | Unsubscribe | Forward | Like Near all-time highs, but for how long? Peter Switzer Stocks will fall one day, but enjoy this rally and a rewarding 2013. Read more >> 20% of landlords have no insurance â€¨â€¨ John McGrath Itâ€™s essential to protect your investment with the appropriate insurance, which includes building, […]
The Gillard Government’s hate session on the so-called rich continues with the media being fed Treasury information that screams out loud the rich of Australia are ripping off the battlers. This is all a softening up process for the Budget where Treasurer Wayne Swan will continue his politics of division and envy to cover up […]
Another good day at the office for Wall Street and the way things are playing out the Dow could be set to rise another 2300 points before questions start to be asked about how long this rally can go on for. And if that happens, the Aussie stock market will be stronger for longer than […]
Good sense says stocks should need a decent breather, call it a pullback, but instead share prices spiked on Wall Street overnight with the Dow up 175.24 points or 1.26 per cent to 14,075.37. The most-watched index is less than 100 points away from its all-time high! The S&P 500 put on 19.05 points or […]
I have been saying for some time that it was going to be a left field event that might create the circumstances for a pullback on stocks, and you couldn’t get much more left-field than Cyprus, which is only around 0.2 per cent of the European economy. Our market followed the Asian lead and dropped […]
Wall Street had a bad night with the Dow off over 100 points. So is this the start of the overdue pullback? I know Lance Lai, my charts guy on the Switzer program, has been looking at the German Dax market index, saying it looks like it’s due for a sell-off, but markets have been […]
Switzer TV Julie Zetler To help us understand the developments and hurdles still facing Australian workplaces, Julie Zetler from the faculty of business and economics at Macquarie University joins Switzer TV to discuss sexual harassment in the workplace.
Earnings season Australian style has proved better than expected, with the likes of CBA and Leighton Holdings wowing the market, leaving the S&P/ASX 200 index over the psychologically important 5000-level. The big challenge now is, can we stay there, especially with the spectre of an overdue pullback to deal with, given that the index is […]
Earnings season has kicked off again in the USA and Alcoa has come in better than expected, however, experts are tipping a subdued story for US companies in the March quarter. If they’re wrong, Wall Street will really like it. If profits conform to expectations, then I wouldn’t expect sell-off. If they turn out to […]
Another great record close on the Dow, and this week the S&P 500 is bound to break through its all-time high close, wiping out the statistical memories of the Crash of 2007-2009! Of course, the real life recollections are harder to wipe out, but it’s starting with investors getting out of safer investments and now […]
The S&P 500 index just couldn’t finish in all-time high territory overnight, and so the index will try again tomorrow, but it will have to deal with the potential mess in Cyprus when banks open again on Thursday. Some sensationalists have suggested that if there are protests, massive bank withdrawals and even blood in the […]
A left-field event is something you can’t see — it’s a blindsiding thing and the economist Don Stammer has called it an X-factor — and some market players think the nutcase running North Korea, Kim Jong-un, could fit the bill. Overnight Wall Street went down and there were three issues explaining why sellers outnumbered buyers […]
Apple’s shares have plunged more than 12% after its earnings disappointment, but the Dow has held up in positive territory with help from a 1.0% Boeing rebound. Netflix meanwhile soared 42.2 per cent in heavy trade on Thursday after showing strong growth in subscribers, driving income to $US945 million ($A900.13 million) in the fourth quarter. […]
Buyer fatigue? What buyer fatigue? It was around yesterday on Wall Street, but the Dow recorded another all-time high and the S&P 500 nearly made it a double. As per usual, a pretty good piece of economic data helped keep it positive with jobless claims impressing market experts and investors. The Dow ended up 83.86 […]
Company earnings and the state of the US economy — the important issues — have been Wall Street’s focus but the temperature is starting to rise on the hot issues for March — the need to raise the USA’s debt limits and huge automatic cuts due also in March if the Congress can’t come up […]
The Yanks are seeing their stock market grind higher and that’s likely to be the trend for most of this year, despite the likelihood there will be some dramatic moments when stocks slip. The Dow was up 27.57 points or 0.2 per cent to finish at 13,534.89 while the S&P 500 put on 0.11 per […]
With Wall Street putting on another up and down day where the bottom line is that no one wants to bet heavily against this rally, it’s timely for me to answer “what is going to keep the rally going?” Now remember, I think we will see stocks go up 10 per cent or more this […]
Interest rate cuts will work this year, despite what the so-called experts predict, but I still hope we get another one or two reductions before mid-year. However, even without cuts I expect the snowball of confidence is building and despite the fact that economic data could be disappointing in the early months of this year, […]
What will good news do to this already impressive rally? You don’t have to be a stock market genius to work that one out, but that’s what happened overnight on Wall Street and the market lapped it up. So, what was the good news? First China’s great trade result, which excited our stock market yesterday, […]
Wall Street simply grinded higher and that’s what I expect for stocks for most of 2013. Sure, there will be dramatic moments linked to the US Congress, emotional European outbursts and even Middle East disturbances but I see the goods outweighing the bads. Overnight the Dow was up 61.66 points or 0.46 per cent to […]
Profit-taking continues ahead of the all-important US company reporting season which kicked off this morning with Alcoa coming in with an expected earnings figure but a “beat” on the revenue. The CEO of Alcoa, Klaus Kleinfeld gave a pretty bullish outlook view to CNBC after the release of the figures, with positive growth projections for […]
A market pause is overdue considering that our S&P/ASX 200 index is up 8.8 per cent since November 16 — that’s huge. Over on Wall Street the S&P 500 index has put on around eight per cent to hit levels not seen since December 2007 and so there could be some hesitation over the next […]
So 2012 defied all of the doomsday merchants with our S&P/ASX 200 index up around 14 per cent and when you throw in dividends, you saw a nearly 19 per cent gain. And as someone who had fought the naysayers nearly every morning in this blog, it was very satisfying. For 2013, I’m expecting another […]
Good news on the US economy with economic growth up to 3.1 per cent from 2.7 per cent, but this had to cope with fiscal cliff talks, which are still stalled, and yet the stock market showed that the optimists have not got the jitters yet, though it could be close. The next issue ahead […]
Wall Street headed down overnight and it was put down to the shenanigans of President Barack Obama, and Republican John Boehner, who heads up the negotiations for the GOP — the Grand Old Party. Well, we have a grand old political stalemate in the making but I still suspect that good sense will win through, […]
Wall Street is up again and I’m really glad last week I said, “F the fiscal cliff — I’m buying stocks!” From what seems to be happening, we might have to concede that US politicians might be behaving sensibly. Who would have thought? Of course, that nincompoop, Democrat Harry Reid said the Republicans were about […]
Good news on the fiscal cliff and a solution before New Year could make the claims that our cash rate will fall to two per cent totally way out! But if the Yanks go over the cliff, it will be a hard day at the office for stocks in 2013. The Dow finished up a […]
Fiscal cliff fear is building but US investors are not spooked enough to dump stocks big time and volumes are low. Why so little fear? There’s two weeks to go before the December 31 deadline hits but the market could be rattled if nothing positive develops this week — the week where most US politicians […]
The fiscal cliff anxiety has been late in coming but today’s sell-off on Wall Street is also connected to the utterances of the Federal Reserve boss Ben Bernanke yesterday. The Dow was off 74.73 points or 0.56 per cent lower to 13,170.72. Meanwhile the S&P 500 lost 9.03 points or 0.63 per cent to 1419.45. […]
When bringing a brand to a new market, research is key. Is there a hole in the market shaped just like your brand? Or are you merely contributing to an already-crowded marketplace? Gary Browne, CEO of Stuart Alexander – a privately-owned marketing and distribution company that has in recent years changed focus to FMCG marketing […]
Let me tell you about my worst shopping experience ever. I think small business owners may have me as a marked man. Enough of the tease; let’s get to the story which I am happy to report has a very happy ending. I remember one time before the world went digital when I dropped a […]
Is a very small business different to big business? There are a lot of people out there who pass themselves off as business experts who want to tell home-based businesses or very small micro business owners that they are somehow different to bigger small and medium-sized businesses, or even big business. Don’t believe them. The […]
Just imagine how you could boost your business if you really became objective about all of your weaknesses and then did something about them. To me it’s all about the ‘F-word’ for focus. If you find such a word offensive, let’s call it the ‘P-word’ for passion. Creating a great business or career is about […]
The persistence of the fiscal cliff story overhangs US stock markets and it’s becoming so punishing I’m even thinking about giving Kogan’s assault on the mobile phone market a free plug! More broadly, this internet retailer and his ilk could, believe it or not, end up delivering lower interest rates in Australia! Ruslan Kogan, who […]
The fiscal cliff is worrying me less day by day and that worries me! History often dictates that the point of capitulation is the turning point when stocks will go in the other direction but I’m going to tempt fate by buying some stocks. Overnight the Dow was up again — 78.56 points or 0.6 […]
Another day before the fiscal cliff, and Wall Street refuses to believe that the US Congress and President Barack Obama can screw up the negotiation process so badly that it will spook the stock market into a sell-off. However, unfortunately, they could! And so the next question is — how bad could the sell off […]
If there’s going to be any loose lips that could sink Wall Street’s stock market ship, it’s bound to come this week with Congress working towards an unofficial deadline of pre-Christmas to sort out its fiscal cliff problem. We’re all told the real deadline is January 31. In reality, the negotiations could drag into mid-February, […]
Another day without fiscal cliff fear and loathing, but there’s neither a desire to spurt higher nor an interest to sell-off, but it will always be like this. Brace yourself for some action and it’s likely to come before December 17. UBS legendary NYSE broker, Art Cashin, who I interviewed on the floor of Wall […]
The courage of US investors has been sustained with another positive day for Wall Street with fiscal cliff anxiety swamped by better news elsewhere. The Dow was up 82.71 points or 0.64 per cent to 13,034.49 while the S&P 500 gained 2.23 points or 0.16 per cent to end at 1409.28. Helping the Dow was […]
One fear has been beaten — the Reserve Bank (RBA) being stupid enough not to cut rates before Christmas — but now the idiocy of the US Congress is the next stress point we have to deal with before the festive season is upon us. Fortunately, fear and loathing about the fiscal cliff negotiations are […]
The fiscal cliff and some weaker than expected manufacturing numbers brought Wall Street down, but once again there was no overreaction from investors to the potential perils that lie ahead if the US Congress can’t cut a deal. And so the main market story today focuses in on the Reserve Bank (RBA) and whether its […]
There are 23 days left before Christmas but will investors have anything to cheer about? In a nutshell, if the fiscal cliff deal is sorted out before the festive seasons starts and the Reserve Bank (RBA) cuts rates tomorrow, then we should be set up for a nice run up of stocks into the New […]
With another day on Wall Street where investors punted against a negative outcome from the fiscal cliff negotiations on Capitol Hill in Washington, the question is — what’s going on? In simple terms, just about everyone believes that a deal will be struck in Congress, and so they are buying stocks now to avoid the […]
Dumb politician’s comments sent Wall Street down yesterday and smarter ones used their big mouths to help market sentiment head in a positive direction. The Dow was up 106.98 points or 0.83 per cent to 12,985.11 while the S&P 500 whacked on 10.99 points or 0.79 per cent to end at 1,409.93. Yesterday Democrat Harry […]
European stock markets were up on good news that Greece has struck a better deal from lenders but a big mouth US politician started the spooking process, which is bound to hurt stock markets in coming weeks. The fool politician was Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid — a Democrat — who told us there had […]
Who said the fiscal cliff fears are behind us? Well, it looked like it on Friday on Wall Street, but reality is biting back, albeit slowly, with the Dow down 42.31 points or 0.33 per cent to 12,967.37. Meantime, the S&P 500 was down 0.2 per cent to 1406.29. The index is still in positive […]
It was only a half-day trading on Wall Street on Friday, but stocks shot up as if the fiscal cliff will not be a problem. But it begs the question — how come? For the record, the Dow was up 172.79 points or 1.35 per cent to end at 13,009.68 while the S&P 500 index […]
With the Yanks on Thanksgiving, meaning no Wall Street leads today and only a half-day’s trade tomorrow for what the Americans call Black Friday, the fiscal cliff seems to have been forgotten with good news out of China and Europe. It’s been another bad one for the expert Doomsday merchants with China producing another good […]
Just when we thought that all market action was being driven by fiscal cliff anxiety or even optimism, along comes a cease fire agreement between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip and up go stocks! That teaches you a bit about markets — they’re not always what they seem. All of this as the […]
You know the people who drive Wall Street, to put it nicely, have unrealistic expectations when the stock market is flat because the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke said he has no plans to stimulate the economy if the dopey Congress sends the US economy over the fiscal cliff. And to put it not so […]
Is this a sucker’s rally with the Dow up 207.65 points? Or has sanity prevailed in the US Congress faster than any self-respecting American doubter could have expected? Yesterday I pointed out that the American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey bearish read was the worst since August last year before the stock market dived […]
The best news for Wall Street in a week when the Nasdaq was down 4.17 per cent, the Dow Jones Index was off 3.88 per cent and the S&P 500 was some 3.7 per cent underwater, was that when the Republican boss in the Congress, John Boehner said, “I believe we can do this”, the […]
The fiscal cliff keeps pushing share prices down and the arrival of some disappointing economic data didn’t help the cause of those hoping for a small pullback. But let’s face it, stocks will trend down until President Barack Obama and the Republicans in the Congress are close to unity on key issues, so get used […]
The Dow is down around five per cent since Barack Obama won the US presidency, and so does Wall Street hate him, or the fiscal cliff? The answer is “a bit of both” but in reality market players can’t stand uncertainty and right now in the early stages of post-election negotiations, there’s a heap of […]
Regular readers might have noted that on Monday I underlined Share Wealth Systems’ Gary Stone predicted a sell-off, which happened on Tuesday. Good call Gaz, but what next? I interviewed him last night (you can watch the interview here), but the bottom line is he doesn’t know! Knowing why markets go up or down and […]
There’s absolutely no reason to buy stocks right now but the collective mentality of investors is that they don’t want to dump stocks. Even with the threat of the fiscal cliff, there’s a majority feeling that it will be settled. Of course, if it’s not, there will be a bloodbath on Wall Street and on […]
The US economy will grow strongly if the Yanks can sort out their fiscal cliff matter and stocks will mirror an improving economy. However, if the Republican-controlled Congress and President Barack Obama can’t sort out their differences, then the opposite happens — the economy goes backwards and stocks slump! And so until this problem is […]
Wall Street gave up its panicky, post-election, fiscal cliff anxiety ways — well to a lesser extent — but the most important observation to make is that there isn’t a big appetite for investors to sell off their portfolios. Another important observation was that The Hamster Wheel guys on the ABC read the switzer.com.au website, […]
OK, so Obama has won the job to be world’s number one man, but now the hard part — avoiding the fiscal cliff. This all comes as Wall Street has shown how out of touch it is with Main Street America, with investors dumping stocks as a response to an Obama victory. Of course, the […]
The Reserve Bank (RBA) played tightwad on rates on Cup Day while Wall Street went strongly positive on the US election outcome. And regular readers and Switzer watchers were given the quinella in the Cup if they took the tip! Last week I interviewed Tom Waterhouse on my Switzer program on the Sky News Business […]
Today I wanted to share my view on interest rates that I put to my readers in last week’s The Weekend Australian,and I really wanted to share my outside the square view on how our Reserve Bank (RBA) should be thinking and acting, so here goes. Just before that, for the record, this is how […]
The Yanks saw a great jobs number just ahead of the presidential election on Cup Day — first Tuesday in November — but in what would have normal intelligent people scratching their heads, stocks dived! The whole problem for stocks, which I think will only be short-term, is all about sugar hits. Yep, that white […]
Wall Street put on a one per cent rally and it raises questions over the expectation that we will see a pullback in stocks ahead of a nice rally at the end of the year. Or does it? So, what I’m saying is — is this a sucker’s rally or the real deal? Let’s get […]
The Dow was down 2.5 per cent for October but our S&P/ASX 200 index was up 2.9 per cent and October is usually our most scariest month. So, is it catch up time for the Aussie stock market? The Dow Jones index all-time high was 13,930.1 on 30 October 2007 but it is now at […]
As we await Wall Street’s reopening after Hurricane Sandy, I will take an opportunity to explain and emphasise to my regular readers that “I am not an animal!” I should be clearer — “I am not a political animal!” I received a great email from a viewer called Greg who says he loves my business […]
Wall Street and the Nasdaq are to be closed at least until Wednesday as Hurricane Sandy threatens New York, and so our markets will miss the US lead. The weather could also affect the election outcome as early voting has been in process, but has been temporarily postponed until things settle down. That meant no […]
With the US election looming, which is on Cup Day — the first Tuesday in November — markets are getting edgy about the fiscal cliff but investors have not been helped by ordinary company earnings reports for the September quarter. We Aussies are more interested in the Reserve Bank (RBA) decision on interest rates on […]
The question for investors now is, are we stuck around these levels on Wall Street and the S&P/ASX 200 index until some very good or very bad news happens? And the answer is, definitely yes. The big focus has become the US election and then the fiscal cliff, and the experts are split on the […]
Wall Street had another bad day at the office but the local focus should be on those inflation numbers that could rob us of an interest rate cut on Cup Day. If that happens, there’s only one thing to blame — the carbon tax — and if you want to bag someone, I reckon you […]
With the pullback in stocks on Wall Street getting more serious overnight with the S&P 500’s 1420-level broken, and it likely to go down again from here, the big question for investors is — what would Warren Buffett do? He has famously warned us all to be “fearful when others are greedy” and vice versa, […]
The two big money news stories are easy to see. Wall Street had another bad day at the office being down for most of the session and Treasurer Wayne Swan bunged on a mini-budget to increase his chances of getting a budget surplus. So, mathematically, you could express it as: Wall Street + Wayne = […]
Wall Street got the overdue wobbles over the weekend with the Dow off over 200 points! So, what happened? The main drivers were some worrying company results, which have then been used to make negative assumptions about global economic growth going forward. All I can say to that is — “well, der.” Let’s go straight […]
Is Google losing its way or could this be a sign that the US reporting season is going to disappoint over the next few weeks? And if the latter is the case, could this trigger the pullback in stocks that many experts have been expecting? Today Google had a hiccup with its company earnings report […]
Do I deserve to be bagged? This was the gritting question I had to ask myself when a reader/viewer called Dave gave me a right bollocking after yesterday’s blog entitled “I Just Could Be Right!” He reckoned I have recently introduced the word ‘could’ into my blogs, which quite startled me because I have always […]
Being a cautious bull on stocks since the collapse of Lehman Brothers resulted in the Communist Chinese stimulating their economy ahead of every other capitalist country in late 2008 (which was a massive irony) was a big gamble for a financial commentator and financial planner in the public eye. But that was a punt I […]
The irony for the current owners of Channel Nine is that they’re being made to face unhelpful creditors at a time when the outlook for the company is on the improve. And that, in part, explains why the lenders are playing hardball with the company. Today the company will know its fate, but have no […]
What could really knock the Doomsday merchants off their raven-like perch? Three things — Europe continues to move in the right direction, easing up on excessive austerity, the Yanks avoid the fiscal cliff and China confounds critics and grows. Well, Europe is a work in progress and so is the fiscal cliff threat, while the […]
My simple guide to dealing with stocks over the next two months is buy when the market goes down because it will go up in December. There has been a nice run up in stocks since early June and so it’s time for a pullback. Right now there are doomsday merchants tipping Armageddon again but […]
After a disappointing consumer confidence stat, I recommend we round up all of the negative media commentators and we name and shame them like our politicians have been doing lately. Well, maybe I have gone too far, but at least let’s poke fun at them. Anyone doubting that we Aussies don’t need another interest rate […]
Peter Slipper had to retire and it’s good to see that while his actions via texting show he has more imperfections than we’d like in our Speaker, he at least had the integrity to resign. Now what do we make of our national leaders — Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott — given their sideshow performances […]
Stock markets are unusual beasts and they go through three stages, which reflect investor attitudes. The three can be summed up as scared, uncertain and confident. We’re in the uncertain stage now and within the uncertain stage there are two sides — uncertain bordering on the negative and then of course there’s uncertain bordering on […]
If October isn’t a negative month, then I will be closer to announcing that the worst of the global financial crisis (GFC), and the associated collapse of share prices, are behind us. I have always argued when the real chances of another big sell-off are done and dusted, we will see a big spike in […]
There are three reasons why stocks could go up or down in the final quarter of the year — a quarter historically prone to a nice rise for stock markets. Those three are Europe, the USA and China and two of these key determinants for share prices got it right overnight. As a consequence, the […]
Being critical of the Prime Minister has become risky business lately, especially if you’re a man, so I will go respectfully soft in pondering her comments yesterday criticising those who talk down the economy. As an economics commentator, you have to tell it the way it is and yesterday we saw the trade deficit blow […]
Now that the Reserve Bank (RBA) and its governor, Glenn Stevens, have acted to cut rates, I feel a tad guilty about my suggestion yesterday that he and his board need to get off their arses and get outside their comfort zone. I guess tough love is sometimes needed. Well done RBA, the debtors of […]
This underwhelming and overrated Reserve Bank (RBA) will be tested today and if the majority of economists are right, it will fail, again. That is, it will wait until November to give us our next interest rate cut, despite the fact it’s needed right now. The Bank always thinks inside the square and is reactive […]
Like magic, market sentiment has turned around with Wall Street and European stock markets up nicely in total contrast to the fear and loathing yesterday. So, what gives? Well, two of the flies in the ointment — Spain and China — came out with decisions that impressed the investing community who determine the course of […]
The Euro-monster is back! It’s spooking stock markets and it’s giving profit-takers a good reason to pocket profit and remain on the sidelines. Fortunately, what is happening isn’t knee-knockingly scary, at least for now. Wall Street didn’t like the Eurozone troubles and the Dow gave up 44.04 points or 0.33 per cent to finish at […]
So this is how a stock market pull-back happens — there will be a trigger, such as a violent protest in Spain over austerity, and there will be some economic data stating the bleeding obvious, that the global economy is slowing, and Wall Street will have the worst day in months. But these are only […]
Stock markets are becalmed with a little bit of movement up and down but there is nothing to disrupt stock prices in either direction for the foreseeable future. However, Goldman Sachs says beware the fiscal cliff and this has been an issue I have been warning about for some months now. Overnight there was a […]
No great rally news to report but one thing Wall Street is valiantly trying to do is to defy gravity. It has done enough spiking higher for the moment, but it really has shown that investors are not keen for a sell-off. But can this persist? The simple answer is yes if the run of […]
We are now moving into what I call the drone zone where dumb reactions to expected economic data will give active traders the impetus to sell stocks. Selling is logical anyway after a strong run since 5 June but the media will try to add one and one together and get a scary three number! […]
There’s no reason to turn negative on stocks unless you want to take some of the profits you’ve made off the table. And over the next few weeks we will probably see some professionals do exactly this. However, there is a nagging doubt in the minds of many of these pros that they could miss […]
The Yanks had no news to trade off so Wall Street went nowhere, and I reckon no news is good news. Though we have to keep an eye on Europe, and Spain in particular. European stocks dropped and it is the question mark over what Spain might or might not do in relation to a […]
It was always going to happen – first, the Europeans would do something to worry investors and there would be profit taking by short-term players after such a strong run-up in stocks since 5 June. The world is simply not ready for an unbridled boom because there are still some issues to worry about. Last […]
The post-QE3 optimists still outnumbered the pessimists one day after the momentous decision by the Fed to spend $40 billion a month on buying bonds until jobs are created in the US! Let’s look at the Friday reaction from Wall Street where the Dow was up 53.51 or 0.4 per cent to 13,593.37 while the […]
Oh what a night! The Federal Reserve delivered and now it’s up to the US economy to deliver. I wanted QE3 and I got it and Wall Street liked what it saw with the Dow up 206.51 points or 1.55 per cent to 13,539.86, while the S&P 500 slammed on 23.43 points or 1.63 per […]
Wall Street ended cautiously higher but not by much as we now wait for the Federal Reserve’s Ben Bernanke decision on the much talked about QE3. Let me say this, if he doesn’t do QE3 he is a dope! Economists such as Jan Hatsius of Goldman Sachs thinks it’s a 50:50 decision and AMP Capital […]
Like last week, this week has crucial events that could make or break this great stock market rally. The European Central Bank (ECB) did the right thing last Thursday and now we have a German court decision happening tomorrow followed by the Federal Reserve’s QE3 decision the day after. If the German court says German […]
Wall Street floated down overnight as it readies itself for Wednesday’s big announcement from the Federal Reserve with a big expectation that QE3 will be unleashed. If it happens, it’s likely to feed the current rally in stocks, but if the Fed disappoints, there could be a big sell-off. Ahead of the Fed’s decision, there’s […]
Last week was a huge week but this week will only be a big one and it could easily help or hinder the nice rally that has been in train since June 5, with the S&P/ASX 200 index up 8.6 per cent. Over that time the German DAX is up over 20 per cent! The […]
Legendary adman John Singleton has slammed Qantas management for its plummeting share price, its management of unions, its rating below Garuda airlines on international surveys and the calibre of its marketing. And he blames the company’s woes on Alan Joyce being the wrong man for the job. “Qantas is one of only two companies — […]
The reason for the solid gains was the bond-buying program agreed to by the European Central Bank (ECB) and that was the guts of what its president — Draghi — announced last night. The bond program, Drahi said, would be designed to ensure monetary policy worked in Europe and that raises the prospects of cheaper […]
The financial world has been waiting for this day for around six weeks. Ever since European Central Bank President Mario Draghi uttered those words — “whatever it takes” – stock markets have gone higher, positive expectations have been built and now it’s D-Day. The decisions the ECB and the EU leadership have made better not […]
Be clear on this — we are in sideshow territory! The Dow was down 54.9 points or 0.42 per cent but the S&P 500 was off only a measly 0.12 per cent but, as I say, it is sideshow stuff. The main show happens tomorrow night and it will start with the utterances from the […]
European stocks shot higher overnight in anticipation of good news on Thursday from the European Central Bank (ECB) and mining stocks fared well on the expectation that China will press the button on more stimulation for its economy following some more data pointing to slowing manufacturing. This tells me the prospect for higher stock prices […]
This is a massive week for markets and the pressure is on the European Central Bank (ECB) to deliver. On Friday, the Federal Reserve boss Ben Bernanke played his part saying just enough at Jackson Hole to keep Americans hopeful that a third round of quantative easing (QE3) will be used if the economy needs […]
Markets got jumpy and Euro-nervous ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting tomorrow and the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting next Thursday, which could make or break this stock market rally. Underlining how crucial Europe is to our stocks, overnight the Spanish Finance Minister said he would not ask for bailout funds until he knew the […]
The becalmed market situation, where it’s the same old, go nowhere predicament ahead of Friday’s Jackson Hole meeting in Wyoming, continued to dominate Wall Street. In reality the September 6 meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) is more important to prices of our shares but this is like a warm up act, still having […]
It was same old, same old yesterday and we have had more of that overnight on Wall Street but it’s good to see a US market guru say “ignore the fiscal cliff” and buy shares! In terms of the same old story, yes the Dow was down a tick — 21.68 points to 13,102.99 while […]
Are stock markets virtually becalmed in a ‘same old’ pattern of not selling-off big time but still not excessively keen to buy? Yep, that’s about it and the first chance for this ‘same old’ to become a ‘new thing’ is likely to be Friday, USA-time, when the Federal Reserve’s Ben Bernanke and the European Central […]
Stocks went higher on Wall Street and the reasons for the rise were central bank-related, but we’re still entering dangerous waters. And we won’t be free of them until September 6, so get used to the anxiety. The Dow was up 100.51 points or 0.77 per cent to 13,157.97 while the S&P 500 put on […]
Profit taking was stepped up on global stock markets with bad factory news out of China and weaker economic news from Europe mixing with fears in the USA that QE3 is not going to happen. We’re in the panicky stage before the expected big event in Europe and ironically a bit of fear and selling […]
The big stock markets of Europe lost over one per cent overnight and some pundits tried to blame new Greek issues, but the more likely argument was that it was simply profit-taking after a great run up for stocks since early June. On June 4 the German DAX index was at 5978 but it was […]
It was always going to happen — doubts about this rally — and we’re seeing some early signs but nothing convincing at this stage. What got me thinking that the rally will be tested was a revelation I made on Monday that US stock market indexes were up around 10 per cent since June 4 […]
Another go-nowhere day for stocks as the world’s market makers, or breakers, wait for news out of Europe. However, a great focus of the ‘fiscal cliff’ problem emerged with Goldman Sachs apparently telling clients to get out of stocks before the US economy goes over the ‘cliff’! Overnight the Dow lost 3.56 points to end […]
The Yanks again finished in positive territory on Wall Street, which means we have seen six weeks of rises on a trot. The gains were not excessive as financial markets are playing a waiting game on the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve and the trading day also brought the irony of some […]
No big news but plenty of good news with the German DAX up 0.71 per cent and the French CAC 40 up 0.91 per cent, while the Dow put on 0.65 per cent to end at 13,250.11. All’s good in stock market land for the moment and only Europe in the first half of September […]
And now for something entirely different — the stock market could fall 10 per cent! No, it’s not my call, but the view of expert Doomsday merchant, Dr Marc Faber, who is the author of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report. I don’t think he’s right, but it’s a possibility. I just wanted to put […]
We’re setting ourselves up for a big jump in stocks, or else another “here we go again” big slide like last year when August and September really knocked around our portfolios and our wealth. One big inclination you can’t ignore is that there’s no fear, which means key market makers, or breakers, have their fingers […]
As the old Pyramid song goes, I “can’t wait for September” and it’s because that’s when we will get some market action. I only hope it’s in the right direction! Markets were negative overnight, but in reality “nothing is doing” and so markets are simply drifting up and down driven by traders who need something […]
A slightly disappointing set of economic statistics from China, which really were not all that bad, did relight the flames of the negative types out there. This led to fears that there would be a slower world economy than was expected but the optimists outpointed the pessimists, pushing Wall Street up in later trade. Unlike […]
The bear market is over — long may the bulls run! No, this is not my view, though I’m thinking that I’m a bit wimpy in holding back. But not so Charlie Aitken of Bell Potter Securities. He hailed the end of the bear market in my Switzer Super Report yesterday, arguing you don’t get […]
Investors are playing a waiting game but the positive omen is that there’s no real commitment to test out the rally. The bottom line is that profit-takers are too nervous to take their money off the table and that’s for those who want to see stocks head higher. Where we go from here will depend […]
The rally rolls on on Wall Street, so you can expect this to be good for stocks locally but question marks over this share price spike are being raised because it rests on expected central bank action from the Federal Reserve in the USA, and more importantly, by the European Central Bank (ECB) in Europe. […]
The Reserve Bank (RBA) meets today but as the Soup Nazi from Seinfeld might say, “No rate cut for you!” We should not expect an interest rate cut and you can blame foreigners for it. Yes, those damn Yanks and Europeans are actually making the right noises, which has created the rally and this calms […]
Three issues were vital to the stock market last week — the European Central Bank (ECB), the Federal Reserve and the jobs report. The ECB disappointed with an unconvincing plan, the Fed kept optimism about QE3 alive — just — but the jobs report delivered and you can expect stocks to surge on the local […]
We were hoping for a Super Mario fighting performance from the European Central Bank (ECB) boss, Mario Draghi, but it was more of a Donkey ‘Nong’ performance. You can’t use war cries such as “whatever it takes” and then come up with what looks like a wimpy performance. The market wanted action and it got […]
Stock market confidence hasn’t been shattered by the Fed’s lack of QE3 talk but market makers and breakers won’t be so forgiving if the eurozone leaders come up with a dud idea tomorrow. QE3 on the table In summary the Fed indicated that QE3 is still on the table but economic conditions don’t warrant this […]
Oops, we might have got ahead of ourselves! That seems to be the stock market reaction overnight in Europe and the USA with only small retreats in most of the key indexes, considering how much they have run up in the past few days. However, we’re now in the put up or shut up phase […]
It’s a boom or bust week with the central banks of Europe, the UK and the USA holding all of the trump cards. If they play their cards right then it’s boom on the stock market but if they opt for a loser strategy — which the Europeans have been consistently doing — then markets […]
The overdue words of Mario Draghi continued the stock market rally on Wall Street over the weekend but as I have argued on many occasions — words are cheap! If this rally is to be the real deal, actions are needed from the key eurozone countries’ leaders. They got excited in the USA with the […]
They were the sweetest words of all and they were uttered by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) boss, Mario Draghi, and they sent the Dow up 1.67 per cent or 211.88 points to see the important barometer of stock market positivity to 12,887.93! So what were those words? Well, I have been arguing we’ve needed […]
Some good news overnight should keep the market optimists cautiously positive with an European Central Bank (ECB) official talking about adding innovative firepower to the eurozone’s key bailout or rescue fund. Meanwhile, a well-placed company had a positive outlook for the world economy. Also, what might look like bad news but is probably good — […]
The good news is that the Dow Jones only lost 104 points after it was down around 200 points earlier in the day. The bad news is that there’s no good news out of Europe. So, it makes me ponder — is a Groundhog Day crash coming like August and September of last year? Helping […]
It could have been the start of another “here we go again” crash of the market, just as we saw last August and September, but fortunately the good old optimistic Yanks put on an afternoon rally to chop the early big losses in half. That said, European leaders again have put global stock markets into […]
Better than expected corporate reporting news in the USA has now been trumped by the misguided Euro-loonies who, because of their collective immaturity, lack of vision and their inept leadership, have forced the world’s stock markets, as well as the world economy into another tight spot — again! Our stocks will dive today after the […]
Another good day for stocks and even though I am a long-term investor betting on an end to this secular bear market, some time over 2012-13, this rally is still surprising me a little. The only good news is that US company news is better than expected and maybe you can throw in there that […]
Aussie stocks should go higher today following another nice rise on Wall Street with one of the strong drivers being the best housing construction data since Autumn 2008! Meanwhile top companies such as IBM beat forecasts on earnings, though revenue was softer, as you would expect with Europe and China struggling with growth issues. Adding […]
The good news is that Wall Street went up. The bad news is nothing significant happened to convince people out of the stock market that it’s time to get in. And the way US politicians look set to behave, the ‘big spike’ in share prices could be further away than I hoped. Overnight the Dow […]
It’s a Boomtown Rats start to the week on Wall Street and its why I’m starting “to hate Mondays” with the Yanks enduring seven out of seven down Mondays in a row. And in terms of sessions, we have seen six out of seven in negative territory. The news is bound to test our stock […]
Standby for a great day on the stock market today after Wall Street reacted positively to surprisingly good earnings for JPMorgan. It’s ironic but Friday the 13th turned out to be lucky, but can it last? My gut feeling says no because there are too many negative issues to deal with in the short term, […]
It was another day drifting downwards for the Dow and you can blame the lack of any good news and the general waiting or hanging around for a reason to buy. The Dow only lost 31.26 points to finish at 12,573.27 and so as nothing big is doing, let me share with you 10 stocks […]
I generally find it hard to agree with Treasurer Wayne Swan but he’s absolutely right in slamming a wacko economist who claimed Australia is the next Spain! Talking on CNBC, Andy Xie, a former chief economist for Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific, thinks there are parallels between Australia and Spain, which Mr Swan dismissed as being […]
Be wary of recent market negativity as it could reflect short-termism that you should expect from traders — these guys play a short game and provide buying opportunities for the longer-term investors. When I woke up this morning I thought the positive lead from Europe was a nice sign. The UK’s FTSE was up 0.65 […]
Considering the bad news around at the moment, I considered Wall Street’s close, which was slightly down as akin to a draw. The NRL saw its first draw last night with the Roosters and the Sharks finishing at 14-all and it reminded me of Fatty Vautin’s take on a draw that “it’s like having to […]
It’s going to be very hard for stocks to resist gravity today after a worse than expected jobs number raised doubts over the ability of the US economy to resist a severe slowdown or even a recession. That said, the weakness of selloff on Wall Street shows there are many investors or traders who aren’t […]
The European Central Bank cut interest rates and better than expected private sector jobs data in the USA turned up ahead of the official jobs report tomorrow but stock markets were down! How come? Blame it on trader mentality because both developments are pluses for a long-term rebound in stocks. The Dow lost 47.15 points […]
Four days after the EU summit, European stock markets have given some ground following a three-day rally but the extent of the sell-off indicates that well-placed traders and investors are still believers! In what? That’s easy — the EU summit’s commitment to the banks of Europe and more growth at the expense of excessive austerity. […]
Wall Street headed higher overnight in a shortened trading session ahead of the Independence Day holiday. But in reality what Europe does is pretty important for market sentiment in the aftermath of the EU summit. The fact, that the Continent’s stock markets are still climbing makes you think that the latest plan has a lot […]
The European Union focus only lasted a day on Wall Street. Weaker US economic data worked against the rally continuing for the Dow, but the broader S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes both went higher. Optimism wasn’t helped by Goldman Sachs, which told the market it expects stocks to go markedly lower this year, but they […]
Another EU pow wow and another positive market reaction, but will this one last? Well, given the big Wall Street jump at the end of the summit in Brussels, which was the biggest rally ever following such a talkfest, this one has the best chance of being believed as well as acted upon. Expect a […]
We were heading for another bad day at the office on Wall Street with the Dow off 176 points but then Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, said nothing and that sparked a stock market U-turn and rebound which nearly took the S&P 500 index into positive territory. And this came after a US court ruling […]
Two good days on Wall Street which should help the local stock market today but now we wait for the EU summit to see what help or hindrance the leaders of this troubled debt land can do to global stock prices. Rumours have been positive for a change with suggestions of a big cut in […]
Markets are in limbo and that’s why one day we look like we’re heading down and the next we manage to go up. Europe is the culprit, the usual suspect that is putting a lid on stock prices and so we have to wait until Thursday or Friday, European time, to determine what the next […]
The best thing we can see this week is a market selloff because we need the EU nincompoops who meet at the Summit later this week to be prompted to get real. Until they do, we will be a victim of these daily challenges from Wall Street and European stock markets. Overnight the UK FTSE […]
When uncertainty of the European proportions grip stock markets, we’re in the hands of news flow for day-to-day movements of key market indexes and today was a bad news day. A lot went wrong and so traders reacted in a natural way, but don’t think this is necessarily a sign of things to come. Why? […]
Wall Street ended slightly negative and that was a great result! Why? Well, the Federal Reserve did not give traders the ‘sugar’ they wanted but the reaction wasn’t like a spoilt brat! You see, many investors wanted Ben Bernanke to talk about and even give more monetary stimulus — QE3 — but instead he said […]
Investor hopes that help was on the way for struggling stock markets was frustrated when a German official gave such an idea the thumbs down. In the US, however, market players bought stocks on the belief that the Fed will do something out of its current meeting to keep liquidity flowing. The Dow was up […]
The US had its Greek election rally on Friday ahead of the poll and so the focus overnight was more on “what can we worry about now?” And that of course was Spain. However, the reality is that a sustained rally will always be clobbered until Europe shows the investors of the world that they […]
I’m not one to enjoy predicting what a stock market will do on a daily basis, but if logic has any sway with those who buy and sell shares, wielding significant impact on index direction, then following the two European elections over the weekend it should be a good day for investors. You could say […]
Weak official leadership has undermined stock prices in recent months — in fact in recent years — and this morning we saw some hints of planned coordinated central bank action if the Greeks vote themselves out of the euro on Sunday, and Wall Street liked it. Of course, the Yanks have been hanging out hoping […]
Wall Street headed south and some news outlets blamed little known credit ratings agency Egan-Jones for downgrading Spain’s rating to a CCC-plus from a B. So what? All the other agencies have done a similar Spain trashing, so what’s new? The real reasons are uncertainty over Spain’s rescue but more importantly, the Greek election. For […]
Why would you trust Wall Street as a reliable guide to what’s really going on? You can’t always, but maybe you can if you get a run in stock prices up or down. So, why the cynicism towards the indicator I most use for predicting both short- and long-term trends? Well, yesterday the Street’s expert […]
Wall Street ended up over the weekend with the Dow putting on 46.17 points or 0.37 per cent to end up at 12,460.96. The index is now up 243.4 points or two per cent since the start of 2012 and up only 2.8 per cent for the past 52 weeks. And this could be a […]
Okay, okay, we know the Yanks have had the worst month for shares since last September and our S&P/ASX 200 index gave up around seven per cent, which is huge. And you can blame Europe — fair and square — they have ignored their problems, avoided serious solutions and now we’re paying the price! The […]
Wall Street reacted to fears about Spain and the new possibility that maybe Greece will be dumb enough to vote for a party that will take them out of the eurozone. Dumb enough? With unemployment at 22 per cent, wouldn’t anything be better than what the Greeks have now? Well, no, the alternative was painted […]
Greek news good but Spain news bad and while the Spanish Government said it doesn’t need to bail out its greatest mortgage bank — Bankia — not enough key market players believe it! The heartening development is the way the US market accepted the improving poll news in Greece, which suggests that a coalition might […]
Anyone doubting the willingness of many investors to believe that a euro-solution is possible and that markets can head up again this year only has to look at what Wall Street has done in the past three sessions. And last night’s effort even makes the point more emphatically. To sum up, we have three market […]
Wall Street racked up a second positive day in a row as traders have high hopes that the Fed boss, Ben Bernanke, is going to talk about QE3 — more money supply increases — as the US economy slows and the global economy looks to be hurt by the problems in Europe. And the rise […]
One of the greatest economists ever — John K. Galbraith — taught me a lesson when I interviewed him in 1987 after the market Crash of that year. I called him at his home on Lake Geneva and asked him what was going to happen? He offered me an answer that taught me a lot […]
The only good news out of European and Wall Street market trading was that the wild stock dumping of last Friday was not sustained. We’re in a two-week “twilight zone” where both the worst and best things could happen but what happens remains an epic mystery! If this was last September, Wall Street would have […]
History is a good guide on the average but averages are made up of extreme outcomes every now and then, though we do in most things have a habit of reverting to the mean. Last August and September were scary extreme moments in the annals of playing the stock market but those months presented great […]
The big news of the day is that the Greeks are starting to realize that exiting the euro might be a bad idea and a recent poll showed that a coalition which would support the euro is looking more likely. This sent Asian stock markets up but we will have to wait another day before […]
Once again we’re in the hands of the eurozone officials, the Greeks and what the market smarties will try on between now and 17 June when Greece has its second shot at electing a coalition government. Things are pretty worrying on one level according to my reading of London’s Daily Telegraph in Heathrow airport on […]
What Europe giveth, Europe taketh away. That’s where we are right now but the leaders of the European Union did enough to keep Wall Street largely positive overnight. The Dow was up 33.6 points or 0.27 per cent to 12,529.75 while the S&P 500 index was up 1.82 points or 0.14 per cent to 1320.68, […]
Wall Street has European jitters as the threat of a Greek exit clashes with the prospect of a divided Europe on how to deal with its debt problems. The negativity is controlled at the moment but one false move and the market could really get ugly again with shades of last August and September. It’s […]
Stocks were up again in Europe and it poses the question — what in the hell is going on? Clifford Bennett of The Investors Club says we have seen the low point of the market for the year but his critics would say that he has a tendency to be very bullish. On the other […]
Just when we thought we were going to a market hell in a hand basket thanks to the Greeks, along came a big Wall Street comeback. So what in the hell happened? Just to recap, our stock market lost close to six per cent last week and experts were telling us that the critical indicator […]
OK, I expected a sell-off and prophesised it but I was always hoping we would avoid this kind of dumping, however, when uncertainty is linked to what the Greeks might do at the next election, it’s in the lap of the gods! And the stock market slide took the gloss off Facebook’s debut but in […]
Greece again took its toll on Wall Street’s enthusiasm but US investors weren’t helped by some disappointing economic news. But while these had some possible bearing on the stock market, I reckon Greek fatigue is taking control as the ratings agency Fitch threw its two pence in. The VIX or fear index is creeping higher […]
A losing day is never easy to like but given our two per cent slump yesterday a mere 0.26 per cent slip on Wall Street is a positive result! It differentiates 2012 from 2011 where a virtual sniff of bad EU news would have crippled confidence and resulted in triple-digit losses. The stories moving US […]
Europe’s negativity has been partly trumped by some US positivity and investors’ greater willingness to stay with stocks but the VIX or the fear index is rising, though it’s still a slow rise. Still, the question is, are we learning to ignore Greece? The answer is no as Wall Street did react negatively to two […]
Right now you might be wishing that you stayed in term deposits! Greece is spooking markets with legendary NYSE trader Art Cashin of UBS suggesting that Greece could be “Lehman Brothers on steroids” while Barclays’ Larry Kantor, a guy who has been on the money for some time, says a Greek leadership agreement might only […]
Three big issues will determine whether this May to October period will be good or bad news for investors. To date it looks like this is another “sell in May and go away” year but overall, election years are generally good for stocks, though the third year of a presidency tends to be better than […]
Wall Street ended positive, which is a good sign considering the plethora of bad news around at the moment but I suspect our patience as well as nerves will be tested in coming weeks. Right now we have question marks over the strength of the US economic recovery, which is looking a bit iffy, the […]
Wall Street looked like it was heading for a big triple-digit loss for the day after the opening appeared pretty disastrous with Greek post-election concerns and fears that the country would be kicked out of the eurozone, which spooked market players. However, as the day proceeded, the losses were pared which continues a theme that […]
This year’s Budget is what I would call a Dale Carnegie Budget — one designed to win friends and influence people! But clearly if you’re a bigger business, if you have some serious income or you want to build up your super, you are friends Labor can do without. Add this anti-business sentiment to the […]
I know Budget day is important to the Gillard Government, which looks like a dead party walking, or maybe crawling to an eventual electoral defeat. And it’s important to the media who always hype it up and there will be some Aussies happy and unhappy with the Treasurer’s decisions, but in the big scheme of […]
Expect a week of volatility with a disappointing jobs report in the USA spooking Wall Street, and the results of elections in France and Greece to reflect an anti-German austerity trend in the EU. What that means is if voters reject the fiscal discipline needed to satisfy creditors, and they don’t meet their debt repayments, […]
I would love to be fully bullish for you and be unwisely advising you to ignore some negative signs out there and the less than merry market month of May — a journalist can make big calls — but as an economist and financial planner I have to show caution. If you’re a long-term investor, […]
This morning we learnt CBA has cut its standard variable home loan rate by 0.4 per cent and this follows the NAB dropping its home loan rate by 0.32 per cent. This will help stocks and make term deposits less attractive and provided nothing big and bad comes out of Europe, it means stocks go […]
Aussie stocks are getting ready to have a really good year thanks to the Reserve Bank’s overdue big rate cut but there still could be some challenges over May to October. Overnight the Yanks got some good economic news with the ISM reading for manufacturing better than expected and so it means the US economic […]
Usually my focus each morning is on what Wall Street has done overnight as a pointer for what the Australian market might do today, but more importantly I look for revelations that say something about the long-term outlook for stocks. And while the Dow was down a tick last night, the general US feelings about […]
This will be a huge week for investors both at home and abroad with the Reserve Bank poised to cut interest rates on Tuesday. Some economists and business leaders are sweating on a 0.5 per cent cut, which I think is too big a call for Glenn Stevens and his board. Overseas, there are some […]
I know May is coming and I know Europe is going to be a pain in the wallet as we cope with French and Greek elections as well as Dutch government upheavals over austerity programs but I’m even getting more bullish. Two things in the past 24 hours explain my positivity — one is Wall […]
Wall Street was driven by Apple’s better-than-expected company earnings report with the Nasdaq index hitting a four-month high. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve boss Ben Bernanke tipped a better economic outlook for the US economy for the year but he didn’t totally rule out the possibility of QE3, though most expect this is a trump card […]
Europe set the scene for a Wall Street sell-off with concerns over who might win the French election spooking market players. Meanwhile on the local front, we get the latest inflation read today and economists will be poring over the data to work out if the Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate next Tuesday. […]
It’s a big test week ahead with stock markets bracing for the end of April, which ushers in the month of May when history shows a lot of investors and professional traders head for the hills or the beaches with the US moving into summer. Meanwhile, locally on Tuesday we get the latest reading on […]
It was a negative one for Wall Street but we’re still seeing a market that’s resisting really going higher but there’s no real desire to sell-off as well. The Dow was down 136 points at the lowest levels of the day but the index ended down only 69.65 points to 12,964.1. It’s still struggling with […]
Wall Street didn’t know what to do overnight following some ordinary reports from tech companies, and the anxiety factor notched up a tick with a new Spanish bond auction looming. The Dow ended the session down 82.79 points, or 0.63 per cent, to 13,032.75 while the S&P 500 index was 5.64 points, or 0.41 per […]
Despite the fact that a correction is overdue, Wall Street roared ahead and it was due to good news out of Europe as well as better-than-expected company earnings reports out of the US. The Dow ended up 194.13 points, or 1.5 per cent, while the S&P 500 put on 21.21 points, or 1.55 per cent, […]
Wall Street finished in the black but it was not all that convincing with conflicting signals making it hard for market players to be decisive about buying or selling. At the moment, I would describe the mood as scared to sell but scared to buy and news events will determine what happens next. That said, […]
Get ready for a sell-off today and until some really good news happens, we could be in the current up-and-down phase with a tendency to the downside. But it’s totally understandable when you look at the drivers for this tentative negativity. When you add the China economic growth slowdown to question marks over Spain with […]
Just when it looked like it was hammer time for Wall Street, sentiment has turned around confounding many experts who thought we were in for a correction. Of course, this is still on the cards but for now the market players are watching upgrades for US economic growth on better trade data and there is […]
This morning I want to do a quick update on Wall Street but then look at the interest rate debate now really hotting up with the Australian Workers Union (AWU) boss, Paul Howes, telling the Government to do something about the wrong-call merchants at the Reserve Bank! As I have been advising this week in […]
Wall Street had its worst point-decline day of the year but that’s not much of an achievement given this had been one of the biggest run-up of stocks in 14 years in the USA. That’s precisely why I have been tipping a pullback was on the cards — markets can’t go up forever! The challenge […]
In case you had a wonderful Easter break and you ignored the markets, well, Wall Street’s sell-off overnight and the likely fall on the local stock market today might bring you back to earth. That said, don’t panic as I think this will be a passing phase that will eventually give way to further rises […]
Expect a bad day for stocks with concerns about Spain spooking markets, and also not helping, a weaker-than-expected reading on the US services sector. And these negatives outweighed a good private sector jobs report for the Yanks. The summary is the unknowns of Europe will always take the wind out of the stock market’s sails, […]
Central banks here and in the USA are in the spotlight with the latest Fed minutes suggesting that further money supply expansion is less likely, while again our own Reserve Bank (RBA) delayed the inevitable rate cut, which is overdue and is hurting both the economy and our stock prices. On Wall Street, the investor […]
If you’re scratching your head asking how long can the market keep going up and why is it going up, well let me ‘manufacture’ you an answer. Despite expectations to the contrary from the economists, who have proved themselves pretty ordinary, as a group, in predicting the course of important economies in recent times, manufacturing […]
Okay, we have had a great quarter on the stock market and a fantastic six months to boot but I have always promised readers I would tell them when we’re out of the woods and so here goes. We’re not out of the woods but we’re a long way from the depths and the centre […]
Rumbles in Europe connected to Spanish and Italian bonds sent European stocks down and this kind of thing happened last April and led to a volatile time for stocks until October, when a nice rally took over. Wall Street did well to resist giving into negativity but this new uncertainty means the timing of the […]
Wall Street finally succumbed to gravity with stocks down for a change as the Yanks cheer a sensational quarter for stocks. The S&P 500 is now up 11.8 per cent for the quarter. However, slowdown news just about everywhere will be the new challenge in the June quarter, which has a history for being pretty […]
It was high enthusiasm yesterday. However, the mood on Wall Street was indifferent but it was not excessively negative and that’s because good news is still outpointing bad news. And while this is bound to change because of Spain, Iran or the EU’s economy, there has to be a virtual army of nervous Nellie investors […]
It’s been a bad day for bears and it adds to the case that we’re edging towards a booming bull market. Of course, the US indexes have had a great year so far with the S&P 500 up 12.6 per cent since the first trading day of 2012 and the Nasdaq up a whopping 19.9 […]
After a great start to the year where the hi-tech Nasdaq index is up 17.76 per cent, you have to be scratching your head and asking, how long can this last? My charts guy Lance Lai says his technical analysis shows a sell-off is overdue and this comes as both the Dow and the S&P […]
Another rough day at the office for Wall Street but as regular readers might recall I have been tipping a sell-off or a retracement, though I still don’t expect a massive dumping of shares. Remember, the S&P 500 is up 26.7 per cent since October and up 10.7 per cent since the start of the […]
What does it mean when one of the greatest investment institutions in history tells their clients that stocks are a buying opportunity of a lifetime and the market heads south? Well that happened with Goldman Sachs, which has been copping a slagging of late in the press for alleged problems with its approach to clients, […]
Wall Street has had a down day for most of Tuesday in New York but it has to go down as a Seinfeld session — a sell-off about nothing! Believe it or not but some comments from the BHP Billiton boss have worried market players and that was in complete contrast to the headlines that […]
Another positive day on Wall Street and it is clear that ‘no news’ is good news. To be more precise, in the absence of bad news, stocks sneak higher. And the longer this goes on, the more believable this rally becomes. For the record, the Dow was up 6.51 points, or 0.05 per cent, to […]
The ongoing question — how long can this rally last? — continues to be pondered by the likes of yours truly and anyone who actively plays the stock market. The answer isn’t clear, but to me it confirms that 2012 should be a good year for stocks. Wall Street has had a great start to […]
Another great day on Wall Street with the S&P 500 breaking through the 1400-level but more importantly it stayed there. The ducks are lining up and I could be close to arguing that the worst is behind us and so I want to know where Steve Keen and the doomsday merchant brigade are now? Don’t […]
Things are getting better and I reckon there are more investors believing the worst is behind us. That’s why bonds are being sold off in the States and it’s a good omen for stocks. For the record, the Dow was up 16.42 points to 13,194.10 while the S&P 500 was basically flat at 1394.28. I […]
Well, the charts say this market has gone too far up and a sell-off is overdue but the run of good news keeps coming and it means the buyers are outnumbering the sellers. Stocks closed sharply higher Tuesday, pushing the major averages to multi-year highs, on news of a stronger US economy and a recovering […]
Looking at what the markets are doing and considering the run of important events and challenges for the market ahead, I reckon a sell-off will eventually happen and this will be a buying opportunity ahead of a kaboom boom! Wall Street had a nothing day but it says something that when nothing is happening, the […]
Good news kept the US stock market ticking over positively with another better than expected jobs number. And the finish was even better despite the fact there was a credit event following the Greek bailout deal. The Americans have effectively wiped out the Crash of 2008 with the S&P 500 index now up 103 per […]
Well the doomsday merchants have been talking this up, well, maybe it has been down, but the Greeks look like they have at least 85 per cent of bondholders backing the Greek debt bailout deal. This is a great sign that they will avoid a messy default. We will have to wait to get the […]
Good news from Europe that the Greek bailout deal will be supported by the country’s most important creditors and very good private employment numbers from a report ahead of the official jobs report in the USA has helped the market move higher. And this puts the focus on the poor economic growth number for our […]
I have been talking about it and it’s been long overdue but it has started today with a substantial sell-off hitting Wall Street following overseas concerns. The first issue is fear that global growth will be slower than expected and again the Yanks think it’s time to start worrying about, wait for it, Greece! The […]
It’s a big week locally with the Reserve Bank (RBA) decision today and the important jobs numbers out in the US as well as here. All are bound to have an impact on our share prices and the interest rates we pay and receive. Right now, stocks are defying gravity with oil price tensions thanks […]
Europe has, at least for the moment, stopped spooking stock markets and the European Central Bank’s spend, lend and prosper policy isn’t only helping lower interest rates, it’s actually making stocks look more buyable. So, what should we be watching this week? The Dow ended off a tad but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq squeezed […]
Just when a positive finish on Wall Street looked likely, along came a Saudi oil pipeline explosion! And stock prices headed south as the price of oil went north of US$110 a barrel. Now, the news story was unconfirmed but it did spook the stock market. Financials and other cyclical stocks were looking good while […]
Money was flowing in Europe but the tap was being turned off in the US. Both represent good news, so why did Wall Street reject the Dow 13,000 level? Well, when it comes to racehorses and unpredictable results, the industry hardheads simply say, “That’s racing”. So I can only lament, “That’s the markets”. For those […]
No one knows how long this market recovery will last but I say, let’s just enjoy it while we have it. Right now there are signs saying keep buying stocks while others say take the profit and wait. This, of course, is high anxiety time for the trader but for the long-term investor, who has […]
It has been my contention for a couple of years now that we will only beat these stock market challenges if the good news beats the bad news. Well it happened overnight and that’s why Wall Street was in positive territory for most of the US trading sessions. Three good pieces of news helped stocks […]
Monday usually encourages me to look back on the market’s performance for the past week and to look at the big upcoming news stories that could make or break stock prices in the week ahead. However, as the Labor Party Caucus will today test the love for Prime Minister Julia Gillard, and the hate for […]
Wall Street headed up despite some negativity around yesterday with the local market linked to European recession concerns, but my worry is, are we seeing dumb money grab the headlines from smart money? And this suggests that the old ‘sell in May and go away’ stock rule could work again this year. If it doesn’t, […]
Kevin Rudd’s resignation has the capacity to move the stock market but in what direction? And in what time frame? These are two questions worthy of consideration as we brace ourselves for five days of speculation before the ultimate showdown between Prime Minister Julia Gillard and her former foreign minister. In the short-term, I doubt […]
We have been waiting for a Greek bailout deal for two years and 10 days, so what happened to the rally after the eurozone finance ministers said yes and found 130 billion euros for Greece? Let’s think up clichéd or historical reasons for this lack of progress for stock prices in the face of great […]
With Wall Street on a public holiday for Presidents’ Day, the focus has gone onto the lead from European stock markets for our local market as the eurozone finance ministers are expected to sign off on the Greek bailout deal. Markets were also buoyed by reports from China that monetary policy will be loosened, which […]
Monday is D-Day, which stands for debt bailout day for Greece, and there’s a very high expectation that the deal will be done and the key parties will sign off on this dragged-out debt drama. Whether we can trust it happens is in the lap of the gods, as history warns us, but the US […]
Very good US economic news and what looks like very good news out of Europe made a goose out of the experts who sold our market down too heavily yesterday. So you can expect a big rebound today locally. The Dow was up a big 123.13 points, or 0.96 per cent, to 12,904.08 while the […]
Every morning people like me look for reasons to explain why the stock market is up or down and some days it’s easier than others. This morning, it’s a hard one but the best explanation for the slide on Wall Street was that there were more sellers than buyers! The Dow ended off 97.33 points, […]
Wall Street had one of those “oops have we gone too far” days overnight as Greek debt drama doubts re-emerged. This was made worse by weaker-than-expected retail numbers in the US. But despite all of this, and this is the good news, the Dow still managed to end in positive territory! It was a surprise […]
With the Greek parliament passing the austerity measures and the stock market putting on another nice rise, it seems timely for me to warn — beware big-call merchants bearing gifts of seriously scary warnings. The Dow finished up 72.28 points, or 0.56 per cent, to wind up at 12,873.51 while the S&P 500 added 9.09 […]
The great US comedian Bob Hope once described a bank as a place where they lend you an umbrella when the sun is shining but want it back as soon as it starts to rain. The actions of ANZ and then Westpac show where Hope got his material from — there has been a history […]
We’ve got a Greek deal. Let’s Google the experts and remind them they were wrong. But the question the journalists are asking now is — so, where’s the rally? Of course, to anyone who actually invests real money in the market they know what the Greek deal did was prevent a big sell-off. For Mammon’s […]
Stocks continue to defy gravity because the smarties who determine market directions know the fear factor we saw in August last year has abated. Even Nouriel Roubini, who is America’s Steve Keen predicting economic and financial hell and debt damnation, is backing stocks will go up, at least for the present. But the handbrake on […]
Newspapers are telling us an interest rate rise is a possibility come Friday when ANZ releases its independent view on rates. And there’s a belief that if one bank rises then all will follow. I don’t believe it. I don’t think Mike Smith of the ANZ could be that dumb. If he leads the charge […]
How far have nervous investors progressed since August last year? Heaps! Even with Greek talks stalling, again, and the Romanian president resigning amid austerity protests, the Dow was down a mere 17.1 points, or 0.13 per cent, to 12,845.13. The S&P 500 index was flat at 1344.33. I’m always looking for good omens but when […]
Kevin Rudd goes into the caucus meeting today and the stares as well as the cheesed off looks will be hard for him to ignore. Only Craig Thomson might be under more pressure as both MPs could substantially change life for Labor’s leadership team in Canberra. Fortunately for Kevin, he has a pretty thick skin […]
Who would have imagined that a pain-in-the-neck nerd who decided it was a good idea to invade the privacy of others would end up with a business that’s expected to list with a value of US$100 billion? I guess if you look at the success stories of companies such as Google, Apple and other internet […]
Good news beat bad news overnight and Wall Street lapped it up. But can it last? My charts guy, Lance Lai from Accountancy Invest, says beware the “hangman”, but against this we have seen a “golden cross”, which can be a positive for stocks! Meanwhile, legendary investor Jim Rogers told CNBC when it comes to […]
While it was another ‘nothing’ day on Wall Street overnight, the big market news has been the Gina Rinehart raid on Fairfax Media where it is alleged she is trying to pump up her four per cent stake in the company to 14 per cent. This would give her a seat on the board of […]
Newspapers and other media outlets will tell you that Wall Street was down on eurozone fears and crap like that. That’s because the writers don’t really have much to say to explain why Wall Street was down overnight. For the record, the Dow was down 6.74 points, that is nothing, to 12,653.72, while the S&P […]
A slightly weaker-than-expected gross domestic product (GDP) figure for the USA in the final quarter of 2011 didn’t help Wall Street, however US consumer sentiment shot to an 11-month high and it looks like the Greeks will get its debt deal. For those who like to know such things, the Dow fell 74.17 points to […]
The Yanks were really getting excited, hoping to hit a high above 12,810.54, which hasn’t been seen since May 2008, but after a good start, it ended down 22 points at 12,734.63. But it really is only a big deal for media types and traders — though I think we’re getting into testing waters for […]
Wall Street was down and the failure of the Greeks to fix up their debt problems was the biggest negative but the market sell-off wasn’t significant. I think that says something and given the lack of really good news, it makes perfect sense for smart market players to take some profit off the table given […]
There’s no big news and that means no big stock price movements in either direction but the question is how long can this last? To put this into context, the S&P 500 is up about 20 per cent since last October while our S&P/ASX 200 index is up around 9 to 10 per cent. Clearly […]
Local market guess merchants think our stock market will open down with a cloud hanging over investors’ hopes for their shares, and that cloud hails from Greece. Funny that. And this slight negativity prevails despite the fact that the Dow and S&P 500 ended up in positive territory. In a nutshell, the Greeks are battling […]
Is the worst behind us? Is the bull market about to start? Can we start ignoring the doomsday merchants like Steve Keen, Marc Faber and even Alan Kohler? Nope but the battle against the negative, nervous Nellies is starting to look like a more even contest. The wild and whacky Europeans are still my major […]
Don’t worry about the World Bank warnings — they’re nearly always wrong. Focus on the better news, which is accumulating. I especially like the S&P 500 index ending up over the psychologically important 1300-level, which the market has been struggling with for ages. Helping matters and proving my point that the USA isn’t decoupled from […]
Good news out of China was countered by bad news from Citigroup as the US profit season continues but if you throw in the better-than-expected Spanish bond auction, good news is still outpointing bad. But we still need some really good news to break this market deadlock. The Dow ended up 60.01 points or 0.48 […]
In a matter of two days I have received one good reason to remain long stocks and one reason not to. The first is the golden cross and the other is the hanging man! Wall Street was closed overnight for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. The Dax in Germany and the CAC in France were […]
At the risk of sounding repetitive, Europe again cracked the bottled-up enthusiasm of the Yanks to buy stocks, with the expectation that a number of eurozone countries were set to be downgraded by Standard & Poor’s. Right now there’s a preoccupation with the idea that the US’s markets were decoupling from Europe but the real […]
It’s Groundhog Day! Wall Street has gone up again but again the S&P 500 just can’t break the 1300-level. Like yesterday, and days before that, we have a short supply of buyers and sellers and it really is up to the European Union to do something about this becalmed state equity markets find themselves in. […]
The S&P 500 again put in another up day — that’s seven in a row — but it hasn’t crashed through the 1300-level. That shows enthusiasm isn’t out of control and so it’s a waiting game as good news battles bad news. The latest good news out of the US was the Beige Book, which […]
Another nice up day on Wall Street but can it last? Of course, there will be an eventual selloff — there’s far too much anxiety around right now — but will it be more short-lived than last year? At this stage there isn’t enough to excite reluctant investors back to stocks but the January Effect […]
Big businesses are bailing out cash-strapped European banks that used to borrow from other banks and this underlines how Europe’s concerns will act as a break on stock prices going up. Meanwhile, the US reporting season started today with Alcoa reporting better than expected. If the Yanks can produce better-than-tipped outcomes for Wall Street companies […]
Wall Street’s Friday close summed up neatly, albeit worryingly, what we will have to endure in the early part of 2012. It’s EU anxiety versus a bigger and better USA and unfortunately bad news travels faster, as well as more effectively, than good news! As the Yanks headed towards the weekend, US unemployment fell from […]
The irony of the Euro-mess, which has been spooking markets for the past few days, is that the US economic recovery seems to be working and it underlines how dumb the German bondage and discipline approach to the EU is. Right now Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel represents the forces for fiscal discipline, as well as […]
The only good news to take away from Wall Street’s negative trading overnight was with all of this recession talk around — definitely for Europe and now even for the USA because of Europe — the Dow only lost 131.46 points, or 1.1 per cent, to finish at 11,823.48. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 gave up […]
Wall Street was up over 100 points earlier in the trading day but it finished in negative territory after the US central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting failed to produce a bazooka. This followed the failure of a bazooka turning up in Brussels at the EU summit and it comes when potential stock market […]
The Dow gave up around 160 points overnight, but it was a lot lower in early trading and so what we’re seeing now is profit-taking and you can blame this on the baby steps made by the EU over the weekend in sorting out its debt mess. For the record, the Dow ended 162.87 points, […]
For anyone not sure about a deal such as the one hatched by the EU over the weekend, the one litmus test you can’t ignore is Wall Street’s reaction. And so the 186-point gain must say a lot but the question has to be, what would it have been if Great Britain wasn’t the one […]
Putting faith in the Europeans is about as wise as taking your super to the casino the day after you fully retire. The EU meeting in Brussels is the big watch for markets but the European Central Bank (ECB) let the markets down by opting to not act to bring bond yields down. Two things […]
The big wait is on and we should know by week’s end whether it was worth it with the banks considering their interest rate play and the EU member countries deciding their fate in Brussels. Oh yes, there’s another big issue to be decided and that’s whether the ECB will cut interest rates overnight. This […]
The good news is outweighing the bad news out of Europe and that’s why Wall Street ended in positive territory overnight. As I said on Monday — this is a huge week — and so far, so good. However, our European buddies have poor form on the board but I suspect they are heading in […]
If good sense prevails, the RBA will cut interest rates today. If rates are not cut, the board is dominated by dopes — plain and simple. Despite my belief that we will get out of this tight bind created by the nincompoops in Europe, it will still be a close run and that’s why a […]
Wall Street was up better than seven per cent for the week and our S&P/ASX 200 gained 7.6 per cent — the best showing in some three years! But can it last in a time known for Christmas rallies? History is on our side, with the so-called Santa Claus rally having a high repeat rate […]
A new day and a new worry with Europe out of the frame for a couple of days and now concerns over China have hit market enthusiasm. And there’s anxiety about tomorrow’s jobs report out in the US. By the way, this is what stock markets do after they go up by something like seven […]
What did I say? Europe needed some ‘shock and awe’ and some of the biggest central banks of the world finally said “Enough is enough”, and the Dow has put on nearly 500 points! The sensational six that helped turn around markets and possibly pave the way for Santa to bring a rally to the […]
Hope springs eternal with EU finance ministers meeting overnight and it coincides with US confidence spiking higher. Meanwhile Wall Street and investors are hanging onto the hope that the Europeans can come up with something to justify the measured optimism that we’re seeing right now and which compares to last week’s negativity. In simple terms, […]
A solid rally on Wall Street was driven by great retail news over the Thanksgiving weekend and some optimism — possibly misplaced — that Europe is closer to a final chapter to its debt drama. The Dow rose 291.23 points, or 2.59 per cent, to 11,523.01 while the S&P 500 was up 33.88 points, or […]
If you wanted some reason why some journalists went negative in the weekend newspapers, CNBC summed it up by noting that last week was the worst Thanksgiving week since the Great Depression! On the Friday and on a shortened trading day, the Dow lost 0.23 per cent to finish at 11,231.78 while the S&P 500 […]
The German Chancellor Angela Merkel did her best to rob us of a Christmas rally, disappointing markets with her remarks that she wouldn’t budge on what the European Central Bank could do to help the worsening debt contagion. Earlier, European stock markets were up but after Frau Merkel poured cold water on market hopes that […]
The unmoveable Germans have been given a rocket up their butts with the unthinkable happening — the bond vigilantes are now turning on them — with the bond yields even rising for them. Sure they are guilty by association but they should carry some of the bond load as they have been standing in the […]
Wall Street’s unwillingness to turn tail and run big time from negative developments underlines the fact that there is a willingness to hang in stocks but the question is how long can this last? I suspect it won’t be long unless we see some actions out of Europe that suggest the European Central Bank will […]
The experts said it wouldn’t happen and I didn’t believe them, so on cue the super ‘Dopes’ committee of the US Congress look set to fail to agree to deficit and debt reductions leading Wall Street to sell off. Of course, the dopes in Europe have contributed to the 248-point slide of the Dow Jones […]
Wall Street was in no man’s land not wanting to buy and not wanting to selloff ahead of some big US news out this week on how the Yanks will cut down their deficits and debt. And then there is the continuing Euro-anxiety with some good news still having to counter the enormous black cloud […]
Let’s face it, most us are flying blind when it comes to Europe and so whether the EU can come up with a master rescue plan is simply a gamble. There are some smart players who think the eurozone will break up and Spain and Italy will need rescuing but they are both too big […]
What happens when smartarses meet nincompoops? The former takes the latter to the cleaners and that’s what’s happening right now on global stock markets. Who are the nincompoops? The EU group of politicians, the European Central Bank and for that matter anyone in Europe who thinks this debt rescue problem is just about protecting the […]
If only Europe could deliver a credible rescue plan, we then would see a massive take off of the stock market. However, that looks a long way off but we can live in hope, as so many other threats to the global economy and stocks are following the script I have been predicting for the […]
It’s going to take some time before investors — and especially the ones who can take markets up or down — will get past the opportunities and threats of Europe. And so overnight new European concerns drove stocks down but who knows what will happen tomorrow? Watching stocks has become like the Tour de France […]
Expect a great day on the stock market today, provided no one in Europe does anything to undo the good news that came from the continent over the weekend. Helping to push Wall Street up was a good consumer sentiment reading but the main game is the EU. In the US, the Dow finished up […]
Yesterday the market was screaming “disaster ahead” but today it’s saying “maybe we will avoid disaster, though I’m not sure” and that’s why Wall Street was up but lost momentum as the New York Stock Exchange approached the closing bell. For the record, the Dow finished 112.92 points, or 0.96 per cent, higher to 11,893.86 […]
Italian concerns have spooked Wall Street and the trigger was an EU official who said there were no rescue plans for Italy and the 10-year yield on the Italian bond going above seven per cent. Yep, like it or not, Italy is the new Greece! Meanwhile, the Greeks are still arguing over who their stand-in […]
The resignation of the Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is at least some good news to offset the bad news that Australia has been forced to embrace a carbon tax ahead of the rest of the world. And before you accuse me of being a climate change sceptic, think about calling me something even more […]
Investors are caught in a news flow trap where the belief that the stock market is oversold and that there are trillions of dollars on the sidelines waiting to get back into the market fights the fear of another European drama that could bring the market down again. Of course, as Greece grapples with firstly, […]
Last week the big market-driving news was Greece and jobs in the US. This week, Greece will again be centre stage and it will be local job figures that will catch the attention of interest rate forecasters, exchange rate speculators and stock pickers. Remember, there are some economists who expect another rate cut in December […]
Despite the antics in Athens, Wall Street was able to put on a nice rally powered by the prospect that the Greek referendum is off, an overdue rate cut from the European Central Bank and the expectation that the US jobs number might be a positive reading. The Dow ended up 208.43 points, or 1.76 […]
‘Beware Greeks baring referendums’ was a throwaway line I thought appropriate yesterday but maybe I was a little harsh on Greek Prime Minister, George Papandreou. This revised view comes as the headmistress of the EU, Germany’s Chancellor, Angela Merkel and deputy head Nicolas Sarkozy, made it clear to the top Greek that their creditors’ patience […]
The question is at what point does the world get sick of the Greeks? Well, if their Prime Minister’s latest stunt to put forward a referendum to see if the country will cop austerity measures happens and world stock markets sell off, then the answer is — bloody soon! George Papandreou shocked Europe with his […]
I know I should be in ‘Melbourne Cup and interest rate cut’ fever mode but I can’t help but focus on the main game for my and my clients’ investments — Europe! Let me say, don’t get too stressed about the stock market’s pullback because you have to remember that the Dow Jones has had […]
This has turned out to be an October to remember, especially for the Yanks with the Dow Jones index up around 12 per cent, while we have out on around nine per cent. But this raises the question — are we in market-testing territory? The Yanks could actually finish with the biggest monthly gain in […]
Wall Street’s rally and what is bound to happen on the Aussie stock market today, which will be up again, is, as Paul Keating once famously said, “one for the true believers”. Regular readers know that I won’t cave in to the doomsday merchants. I recognise the reasons for bear markets and excessive panic resulting […]
We Aussies went to sleep hoping that the Europeans would show some leadership and that a credible rescue plan would result. But what did we get? Before summing it up, let’s look at what I went to and saw as soon as I got out of bed — the Dow was up 162.42 points, or […]
Wall Street showed no confidence in what the EU leaders can come up with at the upcoming Summit, but it wasn’t helped by the Europeans deciding to cancel a secondary meeting of EU finance ministers! When it comes to managing market expectations which ultimately will impact on the severity of the expected European recession, you […]
The fear and loathing on the US stock market is starting to dissipate with the S&P 500 nearly up for the year and the Dow over 300 points in the black, but can it last? The Dow put on 104 points, or 0.89 per cent, to 11,913.62 and the S&P 500 was up 1.29 per […]
This will be a HUGE week with the Europeans set to outline the rescue plan for the PIIGS countries and local interest rate worriers to see the latest inflation figure which will, in all likelihood, determine the RBA’s interest rate decision on Cup Day. If the Europeans come up with a credible plan and the […]
Wall Street is giving the Europeans the benefit of the doubt, similar to that parent who knows the son is a worry but still backs him anyway. Will this be redemption for the European Union or will it be a leopard-and-spots situation? The big tests come next week and the market was a little surprised […]
I nearly wrote: “Those pesky Europeans have done it again!” But hell, I’m sick of writing the obvious. The simple facts are, until Europe puts its plan on the table, investors will be, as Tolstoy might describe it, like leaves on the ground tossed around by the changing winds. At the moment there are high […]
Down yesterday, up today and so Wall Street goes as we await ‘the plan’ out of Europe for Europe. And that’s the way it will be until the huge uncertainty that created the big sell-off since August is whittled down to the usual uncertainty that justifies a majority of investors buying shares instead of holding […]
The warm and fuzzy feelings investors had towards European officials (who have mishandled their management of market perceptions connected to Euro-debt) went appreciably colder overnight. The blunt news, which really should not be a big surprise, was that the Dow was down 247.49 points, or 2.13 per cent, to 11,397 and you can blame a […]
What Europe effectively took away, Europe is now giving back, so let’s hope this new and improved politically responsible Europe can be sustained. Sure there are better signs in the US helping Wall Street register 10-week highs but the overwhelming game changer has been Europe. Now that all 17 member countries of the EU on […]
One thing stock markets won’t do is rise all of the time and so you have to expect down days like these but the best bit to take on board is that there’s no really bad news. So, I guess the fair question is — is this rally topping out? Recall the trouble on the […]
In case the past nine months of negative news on the stock market front has dulled your enthusiasm for stocks, it’s worth noting that the Dow went into positive territory for the year. The question is, can it build on it? My answer is, given the known unknowns called the EU and its member PIIGS […]
The best news for our market today from Wall Street is that volatility eased and the big 330-point gain from yesterday was not seriously undermined today. The VIX or fear index is falling and if good news can outweigh bad news then we could see share prices head up. And possibly more interesting was the […]
Optimism has made a comeback with agreement from the leaders of France and Germany on how they will rescue the EU resulting in a ‘euro-surge’ on Wall Street. The Dow was up 330.06 points, or 2.97 per cent, to 11,433.18 while the S&P 500 went up 39.43 points, or 3.41 per cent, to 1194.89. The […]
So far so good — the Europeans are making the right noises on their debt rescue plan for Greece, the other PIIGS and the banks who bankrolled them on their spending sprees. On top of that, the US economy is showing that it’s more likely that they will avoid a double dip recession and though […]
Another positive day on the stock market is likely with Wall Street registering another positive day, and so it’s up, up but not away yet. There are still a few hoops for Europe and the US to jump through before we get a sustained market take-off but so far, so good this week. Apart from […]
I don’t want to give false hope but we’re seeing Wall Street react positively to better European news and what I predicted – a run of better-than-expected US economic news. Overnight, the Dow was up 131.24 points, or 1.21 per cent, to 10,939.95. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 rose 20.08 points, or 1.79 per cent, to […]
If a market drops 20 per cent, it’s called bear market territory. That means we’re in a bear market and the Yanks have been in it, but it can lead to a rally. That’s what we saw on Wall Street overnight — it was down and ugly but the Dow ended up. The trigger? A […]
October is the crash month and the worst for Australian stocks but September is the historically bad month for Wall Street. However, it was a bad start to October with US stocks sinking when European debt and banks’ fears KO’d more good economic news for the US. The Dow gave up 258.08 points to end […]
Volatility was again the name of the game on Wall Street with the Dow up more than 250 points early, then down more than 100 points while the closing bell loomed on the New York Stock Exchange before closing up 143.08 points to 11,153.98. This came as Germany voted to support reforms to the EFSF, […]
Wall Street was riding high but then was shot down in late trade but this time the experts didn’t blame Europe but fears of China slowing down. But really the main reason would have been profit taking after a couple of good days, with a wall of worries out there for investors. News overnight I’m […]
Europe took Wall Street up, then Europe took the major US indexes down but they still finished in positive territory. Euro-news is the main market-maker or -breaker and it was a report in the Financial Times that took the steam out of a three per cent rally. And, yep, it was another ‘they can’t agree’ […]
On a day when President Obama compared Europe to the monster that devoured the world economy — my words not his but that was the impression left — at long last the Europeans gave us a sniff of hope that they have a credible rescue plan for the embattled, debt-laden Euro-governments and banks. And didn’t […]
A great article in the AFR over the weekend started from a premise that underlines how little most of us understand about investment. The simple rule of investment is if you don’t want risk, play the term deposit game and if you don’t have much money, don’t plan to be a big spender or get […]
It had to come — another big Wall Street sell-off — and I should have predicted it when my charts guy Lance Lai called me yesterday and asked whether I saw anything positive that could make a lie out of what his wriggly lines were telling him. I agonised for a few minutes talking about […]
Wall Street investors didn’t get excited about Ben Bernanke’s ‘let’s twist again’ play and his negative view on the US economy didn’t help. One good thing overnight was that no bigmouth European added to the markets’ woes. The Dow was down 283.82 points, or 2.49 per cent, to 11,124.84 while the S&P 500 index was […]
No news is not good news but it’s miles better than bad news for investors hoping to see the stock market break out of this current correction. Wall Street went nowhere and the cause was simple — no really good or bad news! The Dow was up 0.07 per cent but suggestions that the troika […]
The stock market has a tendency to grind normal people into the ground when it goes through strange, drawn-out negative days like these. And that’s why I always look for positive reasons for long-term investors to keep the faith. Overnight, the Dow was down around 250 points but staged a comeback in the last hour […]
This will be an important week after a good one last week with the news flow pointing to the positive, especially in Europe. But can it last? Wall Street actually put in five days in a row on the upside with the S&P 500 index up more than five per cent for the week after […]
Bad European news has sunk this market lately and before that it was Europe’s debt debacle and the US Congress clash along with the S&P downgrade that KO’d investor confidence. Well, overnight in New York the S&P losses from the credit rating kick-in-the-pants were erased! The one thing bad news needs to soften its impact […]
Last night Lance Lai, my champion of charts, showed how the technicals were pointing to more challenging days ahead. However, I asked whether a psychologically very positive development could make a monkey out of the charts’ predictions. Lai categorically said ‘yes’ and we saw something like that overnight when the French and German leaders stood […]
History says September is the scariest month of all but after August, when our markets gave up 3.3 per cent, some experts hoped we had done our September one month early. They could still be right but it is now in the hands of the EU officials and those global strong economies riding to Europe’s […]
Volatility reigned again on Wall Street with the Dow down 179 points at one stage but to defy expectations, which the markets have been doing lately, the big index ended up with a major rally pushing the NYSE benchmark up more 68 points! Why? Blame it on the Chinese. Isn’t it weird but when Lehman […]
It was supposed to be a positive circuit breaker to kick-start job creation and consumer confidence in the US but Obama’s ‘end the circus’ speech was countered by the continued ‘cirque de stupid’ in Europe! The star clown — Greece — remains in the economic big top with a renewed threat of a default spooking […]
Ahead of President Barack Obama’s make-it-or-break-it speech on what he can do for jobs in the US and what he can do for his own job, Wall Street was down but it was on light volume, which is seen as a positive sign. It also comes when a lot more market players are warming to […]
Achtung baby! I never thought I would use these two words in an introduction to a market wrap but it’s really appropriate considering the impact of a German court on Wall Street overnight. And maybe we should throw in Achtung Obama as well with the President due to reveal his jobs plan tomorrow. For the […]
You were warned and I take no comfort being right but September is the worst month for stock markets and history again is having its way. The numbers experts remind us that this is the worst three starting days to a month since October 2008 when Lehman Brothers fell over. However, Wall Street did stage […]
With the Yanks on their Labor Day holiday, it’s time to take the attention away from the possibility of another US recession (which incidentally a majority of fund managers believe it will avoid) to concentrate on the real unknown — Europe’s debt quagmire. I reckon the Euro-mess is such that the RBA should cut interest […]
On Friday, the Dow Jones index lost a big 253.31 points, or 2.2 per cent, and the S&P 500 gave up 2.53 per cent. You can blame the lack of jobs in August in the US. But should anyone be surprised? August was a month of madness and only a lunatic employer would have gone […]
The market reaction to better-than-expected US economic news reminded me of Manuel from John Cleese’s Fawlty Towers, whose limited grasp on the English language meant that he often responded to questions or directions with “Que?” Of course the confusion isn’t based on the English language but on economic/market behaviour where Wall Street headed down despite […]
Wall Street concluded the worst August in 10 years, which takes them back to the Dot-com bust era, and while that sounds very dramatic, it was the worst month since only last May! I wonder how many long-term investors actually remember that May was such a knee-knockingly bad month? Also, to put it all into […]
It’s now been six positive sessions for Wall Street out of seven but the buying is looking less convincing. Probably the market is where it wants to be and now the accumulation of good versus bad economic and European news will determine the direction of shares. So the ‘E-factor’ is the main game between now […]
Give Wall Street good news and expect a good reaction and that’s what happened overnight. The Dow put on 254.71 points, which was a 2.26 per cent gain. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 closed at 1210.08, which was a 33.28 point or 2.83 per cent rise. Happy days! But what happened to the negativity? Provided some […]
Ben Bernanke has the market Midas touch with Wall Street staging a nice rally, despite the looming black clouds of Irene bearing down on New York City. At the same time last year, Ben spoke at Jackson Hole and talked about QE2 and this time at the same venue, he didn’t give the nod to […]
It was the usual negatives — a troubled Europe and a weaker US economy that brought Wall Street down despite a Buffett bet of US$5 billion on Bank of America and the Bernanke speech tomorrow with one of the US’s top economist believing QE3 is coming! You know if the market was up today, I […]
Wall Street gave another solid lead for local stocks today with the Dow up 143.95 points, or 1.29 per cent, to 11,320.71. The S&P 500 was up 1.31 per cent to 1177.6 and the Nadaq is up more than five per cent in three days. And while it was a seesawing day, the good sign […]
An earthquake rocked the East Coast of the US overnight but it didn’t have the rattling effect on the 322.11-point gain on the Dow Jones index. So, does this mean that we can relax and think that the recent market tremors are over? I don’t think so but this market spike is a good omen […]
We’re now out of the woods with Wall Street, despite the positive close overnight and so the investors are now looking towards Helicopter Ben Bernanke who speaks at Jackson Hole at the end of the week. Of course, on Tuesday the French and German finance ministers are talking about their plan for the Eurozone but […]
What a rough four weeks with the S&P 500 on Wall Street now down 16 per cent and the S&P/ASX 200 off 10.7 per cent. Right now we have had the US debt debacle topped by the European sovereign debt mismanagement spill over into a European bank drama, which could spread to US banks, and […]
The only good thing you can say about Wall Street overnight is that the stock market did not end at the session lows! And given what we’re seeing, long-term investors might need a good dose of Rudyard Kipling! You know, “If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs …you’ll be […]
Volatility on the stock market is still with us but are we staring a buying opportunity in the face and we don’t know it? My gut feeling says yes and it reminds me of the way I felt in April but the reverse! Regular readers know I’m a long-term bull when it comes to shares, […]
The recent rise and rise of Wall Street was KO’d by a disappointing outcome of the Paris summit between the leaders of France and Germany. And this letdown came when the Yanks got some better economic news, which could have sent the market higher. I can’t recall the history of the unsavoury term — Eurotrash […]
What is the opposite of a bloodbath? That’s what we got yesterday on our market with the S&P/ASX 200 up 110.3 points or 2.64 per cent. And Wall Street has done the same with the Dow recording a 213.88-point, or 1.9 per cent, jump to finish at 11,482.9. The S&P 500 was up 25.68 points, […]
With the US gauge for market fear — the VIX or fear index at 36 — it means we should expect volatility this week but I can’t see it being as bad as last week. Gotta cross your fingers. I know some investors with technical experience say it could be a good week ahead but […]
The US stock market continues to make history with the Dow Jones index now registering four days in a row of 400-plus moves in either direction. It’s never happened before and so we have to expect the unexpected when it comes to volatility. And if you aren’t keeping score, the index is still down over […]
Stop press — another bad day on Wall Street and our market will be down today, but don’t panic! It might take a little time but eventually the market will be on song. The Dow was down 519.83 points, or 4.62 per cent, to 10,719.94 and the S&P 500 was off 51.77 points, or 4.42 […]
Yesterday one of my financial planners asked me what I wanted to say to our clients with the Australian stock market down 5.5 per cent before it climbed off the canvas – Rocky-style – to post a 1.2 per cent gain on the S&P/ASX 200. I said to him: “Email out my column from www.switzer.com.au […]
The perfect storm has broken. The headwinds of the S&P ratings downgrade have collided with the vortex which the Euro-debt disaster has been and these have merged with the potential for a US double-dip recession. And the result was a howling ill wind on Wall Street overnight resulting in the worst day for the stock […]
The Dow Jones index finished in positive territory following a better-than-expected jobs report but this followed a rollercoaster ride with the index going up and down in a 416-point range. And this preceded the Standard & Poor’s decision to drop the US credit rating from AAA to AA+. The Dow was up 60.93 for the […]
I know this looks like panic territory stuff with the Dow down more than 500 points this morning but we actually lived through days like this in 2010; we have just forgotten about it. As a CNBC super — those little strips that TV producers put on the screen under a talking head guest — […]
Wall Street went positive (but only just) and it poses the question, has this sell-off been overdone or is there good reason to be spooked? I think it is a bit of both. The US economic question marks added to the latest European debt challenge – namely Italy – are good reasons for an investor […]
Standby for talk of QE3 in the US after Wall Street failed to respond positively to the overdue agreement on the deficit and the debt ceiling. In what had to be a shock for many, stocks had a big sell-off – so how worried should we be? You can be worried but I am not […]
It’s been a wild ride on Wall Street as the debt deal question marks ran up against more concerns over the strength of the US economy. Could the silly antics of the American politicians actually push a weakening US into a potential brush with another recession? Remember this comes as the US tries to cope […]
This is a HUGE week for financial markets and economies right around the world with their destinies to be determined by politicians on Capitol Hill in Washington. The other is a local affair starring the Reserve Bank board as its board considers whether another interest rate rise is necessary. The biggest market mover is the […]
The debt ceiling debate in Washington created another disappointing finish on Wall Street after the Dow was actually up. The gain was despite no measurable improvement in the negotiations between Republicans and Democrats but the sellers came in late. But I do remain hopeful that good sense will prevail and I quote Winston Churchill to […]
Realistically my job today is to hold your hand as our investments, our wealth and our immediate future is held to ransom by a bunch of morons on Capitol Hill in Washington. These are virtually the same group of nincompoops who thought it was OK to run an economy with sub-prime loans with a poorly […]
Another Wednesday in the greatest country on earth but there are a few challenges we have to worry about. First, the Yanks are still playing silly-billy politics with their debt, deficit and financial markets. The Oz dollar has kicked off the day at 109.7 US cents and will go higher if the $US14 trillion debt/deficits […]
Here we go again — another week of this debt drama, which always carries the threat of financial and economic Armageddon. Fair dinkum, the Yanks are drama queens. They drag out every major event that could have serious monetary consequences such that it eventually degenerates into something that more resembles a soap opera! Back in […]
This is no ordinary week for the Aussies out there who care about money. Interest rate worriers will have their focus on Wednesday’s inflation data while those nervous about share prices will have the debt dramas in the US Congress. The latter could really rock Wall Street if the US politicians let politics get in […]
Stocks surged overnight and I hope you read my article last week entitled ‘Why stocks suck but you should buy them anyway’. Last night on my program SWITZER on the Sky News Business Channel, my charts guy, Lance Lai went from tentatively positive to quite bullish. A month ago, he was 10 per cent invested […]
Three big issues confront stock and all financial markets — the US debt challenge, the Euro-debt drama and the possibility of the US economy double dipping. Yesterday’s nice rise with the S&P/ASX 200 up 81.6 points, or 1.83 per cent, to 4549.7 was a reflection of what can happen when there’s progress on one of […]
My early morning thoughts don’t have enough unity to wind them all into one piece and so here are a number of the BIG issues I want to share with you: A nice rise on Wall Street, thanks to progress on the debt ceiling impasse. If Europe gets sorted, there will be a big rally. […]
It was another bad day on Wall Street with debt woes and worries worldwide outweighing another positive company report from a big-name corporate heavyweight in IBM. Right now we’re in a battle between the negative forces of European debt concerns along with the ridiculous political posturing by the US Congress over the federal deficit and […]
With reporting season hotting up in the US this week and the 2 August deadline looming for the US Congress to sort out its deficit and debt ceiling impasse, the question is — are we staring at a buying opportunity or should we just sit it out until the trend is our friend? The answer […]
The David Jones warning yesterday that its mid-year sales were shocking and that the second half profit was nosediving resulted in a fair bit of finger-pointing, but the real culprits got off scot-free. And the market wasn’t happy either with the share price tumbling 18 per cent, taking $370 million off the value of the […]
Here’s a great wealth-building question: “What are the top 10 reasons for not investing in shares, and what is the main reason why you should ignore them all?” So, here are the top 10 reasons: There are so many negative factors — more than at any other time any of us could recall — that […]
Another rough day at the office for Wall Street but it was not as bad as yesterday and that’s a good sign. And for those looking for a reason to remain positive, academic Jeremy Siegel from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania says a 15 per cent jump in the market can’t be […]
Surprise, surprise, there was both good and bad market news overnight for Wall Street but I reckon the negatives will outweigh the positives for a couple of weeks. So if it’s relevant for you, remember you’re a long-term investor looking for quality companies to buy into and hold. And it’s great when you can buy […]
I know the PM and her spin doctors made it seem like this carbon tax was simple — it was great politics – but when the SMH’s Ross Gittins says that it’s “hellishly complex” you know we were taken for a Sunday ride yesterday. The simple summary is six million households will be better off […]
Another good night on Wall Street driven by improving economic news makes me feel cautiously confident on my core predictions. Here they are to recap: The US economy improves. The US corporate reporting season will not disappoint, though some companies exposed to Japan, weather and high oil prices could wobble a bit. The EU debt […]
The big question for all of us as we await the carbon tax details on Sunday is, can the bribes we will be offered to accept a tax at a time when the economy is weaker than both the Reserve Bank and the Federal Treasury predicted, be enough to offset the fear of the cost […]
At a time when our country has a leadership challenge, I have been lucky enough to hear two great speakers and thinkers on leadership over the past week. The experience has opened up my eyes and will make me want to be more like detective Columbo. Have you ever wondered why you have chaos in […]
Great news for interest rate worriers – the economy is worse than the Reserve Bank and Treasury economists predicted and so interest rates should remain on hold for longer than expected. And believe it or not, I’m talking to more and more smarties who think the next move might be down! Still can’t completely jump […]
Now that Greece looks sorted, at least for a time, and the Yanks are buying shares again with the Dow up a whopping 5.43 per cent for the week, is it time to go long stocks again? Last week’s reaction was big with the S&P 500 up 5.61 per cent for the week and it’s […]
I know investing in stocks can be worrying and there’s an ad campaign cashing in on the high anxiety of being in shares for the retired, but history and even the current year’s results say it could be unwise to reject stocks. The Dow Jones put on over 150 points overnight and it comes thanks […]
In over 25 years of business, economic and political commentary, I have always strived to be unbiased. It means I have offended both Labor and conservative politicians equally. That said, if a government of one persuasion gets it right or wrong for a sustained period, I do let them have it and so it could […]
Just when you thought it was all going to go to ‘you know what’ — the stuff that often hits the fan! — Wall Street has shot up on optimism that the Greek politicians will sign up to an austerity program. Adding to the rosier outlook overnight was the news that we have a woman […]
It’s always darkest before the dawn and so with stock markets around the world going through another rough patch, are there any good reasons to maintain the faith in stocks? Overnight, the Dow was up nearly one per cent on an improved view on what the Greeks will do when they vote later today but […]
I know there’s a perception and a rude observation that tough women have ‘rocks’. Maggie Thatcher had them, Hillary Clinton still does and I reckon the one endearing, public characteristic of our PM Julia Gillard is her toughness. You see it in parliamentary debate, and I did love her response to Tony Abbott when he […]
The Dow Jones index was down 234 points at one stage overnight. The big question for anyone who wants to build or at least preserve their wealth is, can we really trust the Yanks to not stuff up the world economy and send us all to the poor house? The bears out there have pointed […]
When the US central bank boss speaks, market players listen and today we learnt that the American recovery was slower than the Fed expected but Ben Bernanke is sticking to his “it’s temporary” line. However, it didn’t help stocks. (The Dow lost 80.34 points, or 0.66 per cent, to 12,109.67 and the S&P 500 was […]
The near-$10 billion bid for Foster’s reminds me of a lesson Rene Rivkin once taught me. And it underlines why I am cautiously positive about the advancement of the stock market and our economic future. You could say this Foster’s froth makes me bubbly! This takeover offer for Foster’s has been a long time coming. […]
The stock market will be going up this year, despite what you’re seeing now and so the trick is to know when. Of course, timing the market is very hard and some call it a mug’s game but if you can do it, it can really help your portfolio’s bottom line. Personally, I’m itching to […]
With the local stock market down almost 10 per cent and the S&P 500 off nearly seven per cent since April, the question is, is it time to hop into this beaten down market or should we wait a little longer? Note, I don’t subscribe to the Armageddon option and I see this as a […]
Over the last week, we learnt that the Greeks were given the unenviable tag of the worst-rated country in the world when it comes to their debt. To recap in case you missed it, Greece was downgraded by credit ratings agency Standard & Poor’s to the lowest rating in the world! It’s now at CCC […]
Last night, I filmed SWITZER at Luna Park to coincide with the Vinnies CEO Sleepout and while the issues raised over homelessness captured my attention for most of the night, when I woke up at 5:30am I just had to see what Wall Street did overnight. Fortunately, the Dow was up 64.25 points, or 0.54 […]
The correction continues and this time it’s Greeks protesting in Athens that has hit Wall Street very hard overnight. This comes as the Greek Prime Minister has offered to step down to form a national government of unity with the conservative opposition. Let’s look at the market damage. The Dow Jones index lost 178.84 points, […]
A nice rise on Wall Street and it was better economic news from both China and the US that helped the US market overnight. So, are we out of the woods with this latest pullback? Probably not, as I suspect we will have to see how the US economy grows without QE2 and that finishes […]
Dow Jones was up an unconvincing one point to 11,952.97 overnight but the big story over the weekend was the Dow dropping 172.5 points to 11,951.91, that’s a 1.42 per cent slide. The US market has been down for six weeks in a row. Our local All Ords is down over seven per cent since […]
Here’s a bold prediction that could spook investors — the Oz dollar could go higher than US$1.10 and could even head towards US$1.20! This is the bold possibility put forward by Marcel von Pfyffer, an economist with RBS Morgans in Brisbane. But it doesn’t mean that our share market will have to languish behind Wall […]
Another weak day on Wall Street and the market is bound to be coping with this correction phase for at least a couple of months but keep the faith. It is, at this stage, a correction as we predicted in early May. As Michael Heffernan, from Austock Securities pointed out on my Sky News Business […]
Well, the Reserve Bank had a great day at the office on Tuesday, wisely deciding to kick its habit of raising interest rates. Behind the smart decision was the hard-to-ignore slowing Aussie economy and some of the worrying economic signs in the US and the debt dramas in Europe. However, if the Oz economy gives […]
The US central bank boss Ben Bernanke did an Alfred E. Neuman of the infamous MAD magazine by virtually saying: “what, me worry?” While he admitted there were troubling issues, he insisted that the US recovery continues albeit “at a moderate rate”. On another important concern, he said inflation isn’t engrained and is largely caused […]
Despite what some ‘experts’ say, the Reserve Bank will not raise interest rates today. Good sense demands it but if stupidity happens to reign supreme today, I will be flabbergasted! Here’s why in a big nutshell: China is slowing down, though not to anything worth worrying about but it will cool down a red-hot commodities […]
We’re still in choppy stock market waters and the waves battering our portfolios are getting bigger but there’s no reason to don the safety vests just yet ahead of a big market dive. As a Reuters article put it, “Investors are not searching for the panic button just yet”. Over the weekend, the Dow dropped […]
In a week when rats tried to stowaway on a Qantas plane, at the risk of sounding like a Boomtown Rat myself, tell me why I can’t stand the pathetic level of political debate in this country.
Tell me why we make so much of a dumb Coalition senator who makes a cat meow to Penny Wong when the Prime Minister once labelled Christopher Pyne a mincing poodle.
Stocks rallied on Wall Street and while investors ignored weaker US economic data, they loved news that Greece was likely to get a new bailout package! And the market went up despite three pieces of pretty ordinary economic news underlining the fact the US is in a soft patch. However, today’s positive action shows how […]
While Google-surfing into why Canada, another mining country, has much lower interest rates than us, I was seduced into a top-rated listing that talked about the end of the Australian housing bubble in 2011. This ended up being a ‘special report’ and it was ‘free’ provided you were happy being lured into the related website’s […]
There’s no reason to panic despite news headline that the local stock market wiped $30 billion off share prices yesterday. We’re in a tricky situation for stocks and I reckon we will see some more down days over the next few months but not enough has changed for me to go from cautiously positive to […]
The economists of the world should be doing a Homer Simpson ‘Doh!’ as their economic prognostications come up plain wrong. Locally, the Aussie economy has contracted to a magnitude not seen since Paul Keating’s ‘recession we had to have’ and over in America the continued run of soft data has sent Wall Street tumbling down […]
Australia has a leadership problem — and probably most of us do too. Even over the weekend, the respected Economist magazine got stuck into our political leaders for being populist and effectively ineffectual — that’s a regrettable contradiction, isn’t it? Now, the Economist thinks that our leaders are not coming up with strong leadership — […]
Wall Street did remarkably well to stay in positive territory considering the latest US GDP numbers disappointed but you could hardly call the eight-point rise to 12,402.76 convincing. But the fact there wasn’t a significant sell-off convinces me that only a leftfield, X-factor, black swan knockout blow will drive share prices down aggressively. Let’s look […]
It’s an oldie but a goodie and it’s timely to remind everyone: “Beware Greeks bearing gifts”. Considering the worrying Greek debt news around at the moment (which went from bad to terrible with talk about a referendum on austerity measures which the Greeks would say no to), Wall Street still ended positively. And the VIX […]
With Wall Street down again, the essential question is just how scared should we be about this stock selling? And if we shouldn’t be too spooked, well, when should we get in to ensure we cash in on this possible buying opportunity? Dow down In case you need a recap, here are the reasons why […]
May looks like it will end as it started with sell-offs bound to outweigh any good days. And there are good reasons to sell for short-term traders but there are also good reasons for long-term players to get in for some attractive buying opportunities. One thing history has taught me is that there are always […]
I warned about it before May and here we are after three weeks of sell-offs, so will the old market or investing cliché – ‘sell in May and go away’ – hold? On the local front, we opened on 2 May at 4826.30 and finished Friday at 4732.2. That’s a 94.1-point fall or a slide […]
Two big news items came out of Wall Street last night. First, LinkedIn went public and the market loved it. And second, weakness in the US economy was largely ignored. The Dow put on 45 points, or 0.36 per cent, to finish at 12,605.32 while the S&P 500 rose nearly three points to 1343.6. In […]
How do booms begin and go mad, where everyone wants to be in a stock market? Well, it starts by the courageous who ignore the naysayers and the doom merchants. Then as these prophets of doom look less credible, nervous Nellies join in and for a while everyone is happy until the crash eventuates. You […]
When I went to bed in Shanghai – and it was pretty late – Wall Street looked like it was going to have an ugly finish. However, the tech-heavy Nasdaq index finished in positive territory. And locally, it’s good to see our Reserve Bank isn’t champing at the bit to raise interest rates. While on […]
It’s sell-off time again but it’s May and regular readers know that I was going on about ‘sell in May and go away’ for months. I also predicted a couple of months of choppiness. Well, this is choppiness! You might also recall that Lance Lai, my charts guy, also told us that the charts pointed […]
Forget about the Reserve Bank raising interest rates next month – only a dope or a team of dopes would contemplate hitting the economy with another interest rate rise after the job figures we got late last week. Remember, many economists were falling over each other to tip a rate rise in June after inflation […]
Down one day, up the next — it looks like a choppy market. That’s what I expected and that’s what we’re getting and, until a very good or very bad development excites or spooks investors, we will stay in this pattern. In a sense, it’s time for smart stock picking. In fact, it has been […]
Guess what? There could be a force capable of putting the Reserve Bank into its interest rate shell — something the Treasurer with his budget couldn’t do — and we saw it hurt stock markets today. It’s called a global economic slowdown. Mind you, I suspect this is like a lot of things in the […]
If the mad lot at the Reserve Bank had it in their mind to raise interest rates soon, nothing Treasurer Wayne Swan decided to do would have changed their mind. So, you could conclude that this is a Seinfeld budget — a budget about nothing! Of course, this is purely an economist’s view, as there […]
Over in Europe, the Greeks are still spooking share traders with Standard & Poor’s re-rating Greek bonds to near junk status! However, the main story for investors — China — continues to underpin commodities and this helped Wall Street to end nicely positive. By the way, excuse me for not showing much interest in the […]
What a week ahead for investors with the fate of the stock market, our economy, interest rates, the level of the Aussie dollar and the level of unemployment all bound to be in sharper focus by Friday. This could turn out to be a big, bad budget week or it could turn out to be […]
Now today is going to be a real test for the ‘buy the dips’ brigade with a hell of a lot of tumbling going on with financial markets overnight. This all gives credence to my long-posed question: do we sell in May and go away? Let’s recap and put you in the picture about which […]
It should be a hard day at the office for local investors with Wall Street down, commodities down, miners down and, not surprisingly, the Aussie dollar down to a more surprising 107-US cents level. If you want to get a sense of what significant things are happening, well, silver is down 17 per cent this […]
With Wall Street selling-off overnight, which is no surprise given how far the stock market has risen since late August last year, legendary prophet of doom and short-seller Jim Chanos is beating his drum that China is about to implode. This is nothing new. On 7 January, the New York Times reported he said China […]
The Dow futures predicted a 0.8 per cent jump in shares as a positive reaction to Osama bin Laden’s death but shares ended in negative territory. So, what gives? The answer is rationality. It’s rational to expect a retaliation. It’s also rational that profit-takers will look at the big run up of US stocks this […]
We’re now into May and we should soon see if the investors and the traders who call the stock market shots will sell in May and go away. It happened last year and it has happened many times in the past but often you need a catalyst. Last year it was the sovereign debt concerns […]
Two days in a row Wall Street has invited us to buy stocks and prosper and two days in a row our stock market refused to play ball. Again today, the Dow Jones index was up over 0.5 per cent and so the question is, will the exploding Aussie dollar dud stocks again? Sure, there’s […]
Inflation grabbed the headlines here and in the US but in the Yanks’ case the stock market went up big time overnight while in our case shares headed south yesterday. This is the story of two different economies where the Americans are in no danger of seeing an imminent interest rate rise while in our […]
Good company and economic news in the US pushed Wall Street higher and it should provide a great start to local trading today. But can it last? And will the end of QE2 set us for a big selloff after June? The simple answers are yes and no — here’s why. Overnight, the S&P 500 […]
Wall Street laid a great platform for another great day at the office for local stocks with US company earnings driving investor enthusiasm. And this was enthusiasm with a capital E! For those who have doubted this rally, the news overnight could lead to second thoughts about their views. What we’re seeing are good profits […]
An overreaction sell-off grabbed the stock market yesterday with the S&P/ASX 200 index down 68.6 points, or 1.41 per cent, following Standard & Poor’s downgrading the outlook for the US Government’s mountain of debt. Overnight, Wall Street had second thoughts about the stock dumping with the Dow up 65.16 points, or 0.5 per cent, to […]
With May looming, a month that has given rise to the cliché — “sell in May and go away” — which I am adding to the wearing out of, the question is will it happen this year? Last year the cliché worked out and buyers didn’t come back until September but they came back with […]
Penny, all is forgiven but now it’s Wayne Swan in the frame as budget enemy number one. He’s the guy who is talking tough budgets and he’s blaming floods, cyclones, earthquakes, tsunamis and the nuclear fallout for a big cut in economic growth but why is everyone scared to blame the other culprit — the […]
The good times for share players might only have two years left to go and so if you are sitting on the sidelines dodging stocks, I hope you are getting a good return on your investments. This is what I thought after talking to Shane Oliver from AMP Capital Investors on Switzer on Sky News […]
A very well-known fund manager recently said “I don’t know,” when I asked if he thought the market would be up this year. It is a ‘cute’ answer but it has become a badge of honour for stock pickers to say they can’t effectively guess what will happen to a market but they can pretty […]
Finance Minister Penny Wong has become the Government’s wicked messenger always running with the argument that unless something is done, we will all be ruined! Her first starring role was as the Carbon Queen telling us that if we were going to meet the great moral challenge of our generation, we would have to cop […]
The next three weeks will tell us two things that will determine whether our stocks go up or down. First, we will see if US companies’ earnings have matched the stronger-than-expected growth of the American economy. Secondly, we will be given a snapshot on the future with companies’ outlooks being the basis for investment in […]
By mistake I read a download from a US website from 4 March, where an esteemed commentator claimed oil prices over US$100 a barrel would have to hit stocks. Well it has been there for over a month and stocks have still headed up. Three issues for optimism So, what could derail the market optimism? […]
Wall Street went a tad negative and it comes as the bears are warning that Armageddon is just around the corner and the fact that gold is at record highs is proof that danger is imminent. By the way, worrying investors overnight was another earthquake in Japan and oil went over US$110 a barrel. So […]
Investors and wealth builders would have to be nervous about how they play the stock market right now and for my part I’m on the perpetual lookout for reasons to be positive or negative. But you have to be careful about some indicators such as the Anne Hathaway and Warren Buffett play. I know it […]
In case you’re in need of a positive shot in the arm by someone qualified to dispense market optimism, then make sure you see this website’s video of Dr Manny Pohl of Hyperion Asset Management. He sees the market rising around 19 per cent per annum! Wait, but for how long? Well, try five years! […]
Regular readers know that I’m entrenched in the bulls’ camp and have been since the governments of the world locked arms together to back their banking systems. They then threw money via budget deficits to prevent the world economy falling into a 21st century Great Depression. What followed was a market comeback from March 2009, […]
A better-than-expected jobs report helped Wall Street up but the Yanks found a reason to be a tad negative. The worries about a rising oil price thanks to Libya and concerns about radiation coming out of Japan’s nuclear crisis still couldn’t top the positiveness from the latest take on US employment. The S&P 500 rose […]
The good news for the market is that the US jobs report could be a catalyst to take this market higher. The bad news is that there are still a lot of challenges out there that could really bring the market down. However, Shane Oliver, the main market-watching man at AMP Capital Investors, believes in […]
Yippee! The experts now tip the Aussie dollar goes higher from these record levels, which is great for holidaymakers but it might not help our shares. Mind you, I still think they will go up but by not as much as I would like and probably by not as much as Wall Street’s indexes. In […]
Sure there are lots of things out there to keep us cautious about investing, and by the way that’s a good thing, but the one thing that worries me is the US housing sector — it just can’t heal itself — at least for now. However, I think I can see some promising signs but […]
In case you missed it, we had a pretty good week last week with the stock market up over two per cent and the Yanks have had a pretty good start to the year with the Dow Jones index up over five per cent. But what’s next? Yesterday I advanced the argument that we could […]
The big question for investors to work out is whether the old market cliché or rule of thumb — “sell in May and go away” — will work this year? It certainly was on the money last year with stocks losing ground until late August when there was a good to great rise in stocks, […]
Wall Street again has defied the negativity from the trouble spots of the world and it comes as some experts argue there’s plenty of upside ahead, while others insist that overvaluations will force shares to give into gravity. Last night on my Sky News Business Channel program, Ron Bewley, founder of Woodhall Investment Research, built […]
Believe it or not but there’s a strong case to believe that the Australian stock market can go up by 20 per cent this year but it sure doesn’t look like it right now. Of course, I would be happy with 10 per cent and so should anyone, but there could be greater returns out […]
The judgement is in on the housing bubble in Australia and the decision is that there is no bubble but we are “uniquely positioned” with house prices 25 to 35 per cent overvalued. But the question is when will this be reversed? These intriguing hip pocket questions were answered in a report by Goldman Sachs […]
After the most recent pullback on Wall Street, bargain hunters showed they’re not worried about the Libyan conflict and the Japanese nuclear threat with stocks up strongly overnight. The Dow was up 178.01 points, or 1.5 per cent, to 12,036.53 while the S&P 500 put on 19.18 points, or 1.5 per cent, to 1298.38. This […]
With Middle East North Africa (MENA) problems retaking centre-stage over the Japanese nuclear threat in the news cycle, an intriguing development for investors has to be Wall Street’s reaction. The Dow Jones index was up 83.93 points, or 0.71 per cent, to 11,858.52 but was down 1.54 per cent for the week. Meanwhile, the S&P […]
It looks like there are plenty of investors who don’t think Japan’s social and economic tragedy is going to derail the global economic recovery and that’s why the US stock market was up more than one per cent overnight. And this has to be the right attitude for long-term investors that if you believe the […]
Wall Street couldn’t resist gravity and the lure of the unknown with shares diving overnight but they weren’t helped by the EU’s energy commissioner Guenther Oettinger, who said there could be further catastrophe at the nuclear site in Japan. The market did not like this revelation and underlines that we are dependent on the small […]
The best advice for market players won’t come from someone like me with an academic economics background who has spent 35 years watching and analysing financial markets. What we need is an engineer who can tell us what will happen to those reactors in Japan. So as investors, what is the course of action? You […]
In a post-Japan earthquake reaction, Wall Street couldn’t resist giving into gravity but it was helped down by more protests and gunfire in Bahrain! These are tumultuous times but are they market-breaking threats or market-making opportunities? This raises the question for the brave trader — should I buy now or later? Yesterday on the local […]
I read a commentary on what’s going on right now which added problems in the oil countries to spiking oil prices to Bill Gross of PIMCO getting out of US bonds and the likelihood of inflation to virtually warn that we stand on the doorstep of another dive into market oblivion. Obviously, he wrote the […]
Well it’s been a woeful night on Wall Street overnight and Middle East/North African concerns are mixing with economic data that indicates a slowing China. So could this be an end to the bull run or the buying opportunity I have been predicting? In a nutshell — it’s an economic climate change! The markets have […]
There are many important jobs investors should do to make sure they’re not making mistakes but high priority should be understanding how Warren Buffett approaches investing. In his 2010 letter, which is a long one, running 105 pages, he outlines 10 points that lie behind a lot of his thinking and investing. The AFR’s Barrie […]
Wall Street raged on with the bulls overnight and it was the good oil news, again, that has determined the direction of the market. It came in the form of OPEC suggesting it would increase supply to offset the supply problems because of Libya. But it was not just better tidings out of the Middle […]
The Gaddafi Effect prevails with Wall Street again spooked by the spectre of a drawn-out Middle East contagion, even if the Libyan crisis is resolved quickly. The question becomes who is next and for the sake of the world economy everyone hopes it isn’t Saudi Arabia. Oil got as high as US$107 a barrel until […]
Trying to work out what I need to say to regular readers takes me back to the invasion of Kuwait by Saddam Hussein in 1990. And this takes me back to the bigger-than-life Rene Rivkin and how he backed himself big time. The scene was the Park Hyatt at The Rocks and TV journalist Jane […]
I have been saying for two weeks now that the stock market’s direction will be determined by the battle between Libya and other oil contagion countries and the US recovery. Overnight, the Yanks had a big win with stocks up over 1.5 per cent. The driver for this surprise outcome was a great result with […]
The Yanks showed why they’re seen as the world’s supreme optimists with stocks able to end in positive territory despite oil going above US$100 a barrel with oil country contagion not looking anymore under control. At the moment there’s a tug of war between those optimists who want to get into a market that looks […]
Those who dismiss the Libyan impact on oil prices and shares got it wrong today with the Dow Jones index down over 160 points and the broader S&P 500 index dropping over 1.5 per cent. And our market is bound to have a challenging day at the office. The day actually started positive on Wall […]
I always like it when my view is reinforced by someone described as a legendary investor, and that happened when US market player Jim Rogers argued that the bull market in commodities was not running out of legs. In fact, he insists it has a “long way to go”. Sure he could be talking his […]
Wall Street ended up nicely over the weekend and that’s despite the fact that the Libyan crisis looks like it’s getting worse not better. So, what gives? Last week the Gaddafi attack on Libya took the Dow Jones index down 2.1 per cent, the S&P 500 down 1.72 per cent and the local S&P/ASX 200 […]
Gaddafi was shot… NOT! Well, in fact, I don’t know but this was the rumour that was doing the rounds when I turned on the TV to check out Wall Street. Pentagon officials would not confirm the rumour but oil prices fell and the market started to head up. At the close, the Nasdaq actually […]
Not surprisingly, stocks headed south on Wall Street with futures for oil pushing through critical price levels. Brent crude futures went past the US$110-mark and the NY crude counterpart broke the US$100-level. These have been big percentage moves with Libyan production down by around 25 per cent because of the street protests and Muammar Gaddafi’s […]
One thing is forgotten about stock markets, except for crashes like the one in 2007-2009, is that when a market rises over a year, you forget the bad days and the corrections, especially when you finish in the money with a double-digit gain. Thankfully, days when the market is down around two per cent or […]
There’s nothing like fear wrapped in uncertainty inside an oil producing dictatorship to unsettle stock markets. And it comes when fears of a market crash are on the rise, despite the solid rally on the stock market. For over 20 years the Yale School of Management has surveyed well-heeled investors about how probable a market […]
Look out from mid-year this year as politics will hot up like the globe’s average temperature with the Greens set to take control of the Senate. And adding heat to the kitchen are the union bosses who are publicly sticking it to a Federal Labor minister. My concern is that there’s a concerted campaign to […]
Another positive day on Wall Street and the bulls are in command, despite the fact that a pullback will eventually hose down the fire in share buyers’ bellies. But that said, I can’t get too many experts to put the kaibosh on the rally which is expected to keep rolling higher over 2011. To be […]
If a correction is coming it won’t happen today but I do worry when everyone is going bullish. Of course, it doesn’t change my long-term view but it means for my clients and readers who are short-term players, I’m obligated to share my here and now feelings. In fact, I believe the excessive positive momentum […]
Chris Cuffe was the man who was seen as instrumental for building up the brand name of Colonial First State and made Australian financial history with the size of his payout. He got it — the big payout — because he gets it, the game of investing in stocks, and so his views on the […]
I know you often hear me rabbiting on about the Reserve Bank and interest rate rises but I’m not the only one! Sure what follows is less aggressive than the barbs I throw at the RBA but given the conclusion by the smart guys and girls at Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, it effectively says the […]
It has been a great start to the year with the Dow Jones index up over six per cent and the S&P 500 just under that level, while our S&P/ASX 200 is up 2.6 per cent but can this optimism last? We have had a dream run but could it turn into a nightmare? The […]
With Telstra falling 0.4 per cent yesterday after a 35 per cent fall in profit, the number one nagging question has to be, is Telstra a good buy at these levels? Or should you simply say goodbye? Last night on my program, independent investment guru Roger Montgomery built the case for goodbye. He says they […]
Just about all of the experts on my program over the first two weeks of the year have come with tidings of joy. And that’s the only thing that worries me — how come we are getting so much agreement? I can’t get out of my head, despite the fact I have tried, that John […]
Is it time to get out of the market? The short answer for the long-term investor is “no” but the longer answer for short-term player is: “I don’t know but don’t be surprised about a pullback”. I touched on this topic yesterday but thought it needed some clarification with the Aussie market hitting a 10-month […]
The biggest problem about markets is that they are like horses at the racetrack — they never seem to win when you want them to! However, if you can get your timing and your strategy right you can make money over time. What the charts say Last night on my Sky News Business Channel program, […]
Good news continues for bulls on stock markets with a less than impressive jobs report in the US not stopping major indexes finishing in positive territory. In fact, it was a solid week for optimists with Egypt’s problems not getting in the way of the Dow Jones index finishing up 2.27 per cent for the […]
Okay, you might be thinking that the USA’s economy is looking better than expected and its stock market looks poised to have a pretty good year, but what about the Aussie market? After all, last calendar year we finished down about two per cent while the Yanks on the S&P 500 ended up around 12.6 […]
Last night on my Sky Business program, I hosted the battle of the bears and the bulls. And I think the bulls won the battle but the next question is, will they win the war? The combatants were the country’s biggest bear — Associate Professor Steve Keen from UWS — while the support bear was […]
You never want to get too carried away with premature optimism on a Middle East resolution when a million people are in the streets of Cairo but it looks like Egypt has joined the good news stories of economics and earnings creating a triple digit gain for the Dow Jones index. Good omens In fact, […]
As I suggested yesterday, market direction will be determined by Egypt, earnings and economics and overnight the latter two forces overshadowed the former. But the question is will this favourable balance for investors last? After falling 1.4 per cent on Friday, the Dow Jones remained in positive territory driven by good earnings news from ExxonMobil, […]
The week ahead on the markets is all about E — Egypt, earnings, employment and economics. And all of this is happening with the US stock market up over 20 per cent since August last year, which is a solid run up. Even the technical types say we’re in tricky waters with the S&P 500 […]
This is my last working day off before my Sky News Business Channel program kicks off on Monday and another year of talking to experts, business leaders, business growers and politicians lies ahead. And so how do I intend to invest this year? I should advise those who might want to take a lead from […]
No one can begrudge the nation helping out the unlucky Australians who have been devastated by the relentless rains and floods that have rushed through Queensland and are now into Victoria, but we can be critical of a Government that opts for a levy, which The Age newspaper says will target the ‘rich’! It will […]
For anyone stressed out at the impact of the Reserve Bank’s interest rate policy on their material life or their business, there are mounting stories that suggest talk of three interest rate rises this year should be erased from the mental hard disc. Before 2011 kicked off and the rain came down creating the devastating […]
I’m expecting 2011 to be a better year for share buyers than 2010, where on a calendar year basis the S&P/ASX 200 was down a tick over two per cent. That said I have been quick to warn that my only worry for the year is Europe and its banking as well as sovereign debt […]
Some headline-grabbing commentators, website editors or simply committed bears with glass half-full attitudes are tipping a market crash soon. But I think the C-word is far too aggressive and dramatic. No one should be surprised if this US stock market goes off the boil as it has surged since August last year with the S&P […]
Holding shares is a great way to build wealth but you need to have a strategy that works. In the absence of a smart stock-picking method, maybe you should put it on automatic pilot. The Mums and Dads index Recently my old mate, Craig James at CommSec looked at what he calls his ‘Mums and […]
What is Facebook worth? To me this is the ultimate measure of this company’s potential and underlines why businesses have to get into social media and networking. Of course, if you didn’t have inside information, you could come up with the inane answer: ‘How long is a piece of string?’ But I can do better […]
If you woke up this morning to no Wall Street news you might not know that it’s Martin Luther King Jr. Day in the US and markets were closed. And so it’s fitting that I take a local focus today and proclaim that I have a dream! I have a dream that economists one day […]
Last week Wall Street stormed home with a solid rise of the market indexes following better-than-expected earnings reports but this is just early days for the US reporting season. And with the employment story still disappointing, the report card of major American companies will make or break this current rally. In case you missed it, […]
I’m no expert on gold but I believe there are arguments that mean it could be less attractive this year. However, I can’t see it falling through the floor. Overnight the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking at a Small Business Forum in Washington, predicted the US economy would grow between three to four per […]
Everyone knows I’m a rational optimist about the global economic recovery and the stock market in 2011, however I have pointed out for months that Europe will be the big watch or challenge. Well, there has been some OK news from the continent on a morning when US banks were up on broker upgrades. And […]
The elephant in the room the doomsday merchants believe everyone is ignoring is the debt pile up that has gone on following the market crash of 2008, which has been co-tagged, rightly or wrongly, the Global Financial Crisis. I have identified this as the major concern for 2011 with particular focus on Europe’s bank and […]
For those who have enjoyed the fruits of a strong Aussie dollar by holidaying overseas or by frustrating local retailers by purchasing foreign made products over the internet, make hay while the sun shines as it might not last! Increasingly, many experts see the local parity party coming to an end this year with the […]
Welcome back to another year of investing and building wealth! You might have noticed some ill-informed commentary in newspapers and on websites about how the local stock market delivered negative returns for 2010 and while ‘somewhat’ correct, they really show that the people who write these diatribes are not really long-term investors. These views are […]
The Dow Jones hit a two-year high overnight and you can thank the interfering governments of the world for this achievement. And for those worried about the debts that remain, possibly you are worrying too much. One of the greatest concerns out there spooking nervous investors is the debt that the US has racked up […]
Ever since I’ve ensconced myself here in New York, the economic omens and the market predictions have continued to reinforce the view that the market is heading up in 2011, provided Spain is not going long on “el toro!” More on Spain later but the market looking good for 2011 is no surprise to me […]
Marketing your business need not be an expensive exercise – all you really have to do is talk about your business at every opportunity to ensure it remains top of mind for potential and existing customers. Consider sending out a newsletter to your clients, telling them about your new products and business. It’s easy these […]
Do your staff wear uniforms or drive vehicles with your business’s name on them? If so, then are your staff properly representing your business? If a staff member can be easily identified as your employee, then even if they’re off duty, they’re representing your business. A colleague was walking to the bus stop when he […]
I recently was asked by a young person who was keen to start her own business what she had to do to avoid failing? The advice was to not be negative and ask yourself, ‘what do I need to do to succeed?’ Peter Drucker said great businesses innovate to get a market advantage and then […]
All business owners want customers to return to do business. That’s why it’s so important to build a strong relationship with your customers. I heard a story recently about a local cafe owner who instead of giving coffee cards to all his customers to keep, instead kept the customer’s card with their name on it […]
Being a tough negotiator is a must in any business. This doesn’t mean you have to be rude, but you do have to stick to your guns when trying to get your way. For example, if you want to get a better deal and think your supplier is charging too much, try calling some other […]
Organisation is crucial to business success and great systems can help. So, what are systems? Put simply, systems involve a set of instructions that anyone should be able to follow. No matter how simple or complex a task may be, a system helps everyone to be on the same page. Security, for example, is important […]
Many business owners ignore a great source of feedback about their business, and it’s the people they are so desperately trying to please – customers. Most customers are not going to tell you what they think of your business unless you ask them straight. Find out from your customers what they like and don’t like […]
Having debtors who won’t pay on time is a major cause of cash flow problems. Sometimes, getting a customer to pay can be like pulling teeth. Some business owners put off calling debtors, but how does that help cash flow? Put aside a particular time each week to contact the debtors who have outstanding debts […]
Thinking outside the square is important when it comes to marketing your business. Tim Pethick did it with his nudie fruit juice – he handed out his contact details on fliers with free samples of his drink. People could take the fliers to their local store if they liked the drink and ask them to […]
Business owners often don’t realise how important it is to keep up with business news. A number of indicators are released monthly such as business confidence and consumer confidence. The Australian Bureau of Statistics, for example, releases information such as monthly retail sales figures, employment numbers and the quarterly consumer price index. All of these […]
Most businesses start and grow on the back of the founder’s great customer service. It’s driven by a passion for the product or service and the customers who decide to patronise the business. I find many single-person operations, such as mortgage brokers, worry about growing their business because they don’t think they can replicate their […]
Is it time to whip your business into shape? Over the next 12 days, Peter Switzer shares steps to get your business fit and fighting in the New Year. First, let’s work on the goals for your business. Do you need a business plan to start a business? Many successful businesses have started without one, […]
My old mate and Australia’s scariest bear, Associate Professor Steve Keen from the University of Western Sydney, is back out of hibernation warning that the debt out there will come back to bite us in 2011. But the question is how long can Keen growl out his prophecies of doom before he admits he’s wrong […]
Regular readers know that I’m cautiously optimistic on stocks for 2011 but, being a former academic, I have to test out my views and so the question has to be asked — what keeps me awake at night? The simple answer is — no economic or business threat is disturbing my snoozing each night but, […]
The Gillard Government’s banking reforms are important as they will increase competition to a moderate degree, but they should hurt bank shares prices a bit as well. However, the negative share-price impact could be lost in what could be a great share market next year, if we can rely on history. Look to history Last […]
At the moment I could be up for an expensive meal at Machiavelli’s if our stock market doesn’t have a big burst between now and the end of the year. And the arrival of better-than-expected job numbers goes a long way in explaining why our stock market has underperformed this year compared to the Yanks, […]
How would you like to get a home loan for around four per cent for 30 years where the rate is fixed? Well, come to where I am at the moment — New York City — because that’s what’s on offer, however, the six month rate for savings deposits is only 1.5 per cent! The […]
Wall Street was higher for most of the day as President Barack Obama arrived at an agreement with Republicans over extending the Bush tax cuts for another two years. An extension to unemployment benefits and payroll tax cuts also helped boost the market. The S&P 500 added 0.63 points or 0.05 per cent to 1223.75, […]
Sitting back in my New York apartment I was surfing the business channels and stumbled on David Kostin of Goldman Sachs who was giving the financial juggernaut’s call on 2011. And one of the big ones was that the stock market will go up by, wait for it, around 20 per cent! When interviewed on […]
‘Never trust one month’s figures’ is a good piece of advice from an experienced economist and it came to me when the Yanks could only produce 39,000 jobs in November, when the experts had tipped 150,000! By the way, this is another good piece of advice — don’t place too much store on the consensus […]
All too often we hear economists and media commentators refer to the Australian economy as two-speed. They argue the mining-related sector of the economy isn’t only set to do well but it will be at the expense of the bigger, slower sector of the economy. The losers could be called the non-mining sector, though there […]
Wall Street couldn’t have delivered for me two days ago as I stood on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange interviewing the legendary UBS director of floor operations, Art Cashin, but at least it put in a nice big bullish rise while I’m still pounding the pavement in the Big Apple. In fact, […]
I’m in New York at the moment on the hunt for Aussies making it big in the Big Apple. The thinking is, to steal a line from a great New York song, if you can make it there, you can make it anywhere. And I reckon if we accept the Reserve Bank’s commitment to exterminating […]
This report comes hot from the hallowed turf, which is the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange. And while it was a down day, there was a nice rebound when yours truly walked into Wall Street’s famous share pit. The Dow dropped 39 points to 11,052.49 — that’s a 0.36 per cent loss […]
Tomorrow I head down to the Grand Central for share markets — the New York Stock Exchange or Wall Street as it is often called — and I’m hoping on a positive day with plenty of action as I’m interviewing the legendary floor trader, Art Cashin from UBS. I wouldn’t want to ask him his […]
I know the odd doubting Thomas out there might question my commitment to being positive on the outlook for shares given the pending doom that always seems to be just around the Wall Street corner, but given the increasingly bluer skies on the US economy, it still is sensible to ponder what could go wrong? […]
History actually says that the week of Thanksgiving on Wall Street isn’t for stocks and given the contribution from North Korea’s bombshell and the persistent worries about Ireland, Portugal and the rest of Europe’s problem child economies, you would have expected a disappointing week for share prices. Well the positive nature of Yanks should never […]
Trying to sell anything without a good history of delivering great customer service is like building a lifelong, loving relationship over the internet. Sure, some say it can be done but it doesn’t sound ideal and many online relationships have ended in tears when the virtual world met the real one. Earlier this year, American […]
The renowned US business thinker, Peter Drucker, made the point all would-be entrepreneurs need to take on board, that “business has only two functions — marketing and innovation”. Right now, as evidenced by the most recent federal election, a sizeable chunk of Australians are different from what might be called a typical Australian. The Greens attracted […]
The likes of Google and Microsoft are often held up as great examples for small business people on how an entrepreneur can build up a knock-out business. But what if their example encouraged business owners to break the law? This was the proposition that was put to me following a speech in Bendigo earlier this […]
Remember earlier this week when the market was worried about Ireland and China? Well, all is forgiven or forgotten, at least for the moment, as Wall Street charged into another rally. And driving the resuscitated optimism was the bumper GM re-listing, better news out on Ireland’s debt drama and some good US economic data. The […]
The Irish scare has abated for the moment and it was comforting to see the Dow Jones index only down 15.62 points to 11,007.88 and the S&P 500 actually closing out of negative territory. Of course, it doesn’t mean that we’re free of debt disaster concerns but it suggests that the people in the know […]
Wall Street’s big dive overnight reminds us that stock markets are not out of the woods yet with Eurodebt concerns eroding investor confidence. And it’s a sober reminder of why the Reserve Bank’s aggressive interest rate stance could be far too pre-emptive. Regular readers know that I’m a bull on share prices, but a cautious […]
Anyone looking for market guidance right now might take this warning — beware the prophets of doom who will tell you we’ll all be ruined. Sure there are still challenges ahead but the intervention, especially from the US Government and the Fed, can be believed in. In fact, respected US banking analyst, Dick Bove has […]
My charts champion Lance Lai predicted a sell off on the stock market last week on my Sky News Business Channel program virtually a day before it happened. In fact why his call was so memorable was that he admitted he was 100 per cent in cash! So, is this a sign that we should […]
Halloween may be over but the aftermath is still with us with the doomsday merchants trying their hand at spooking the market. And while one bear hasn’t changed his pelt, another is being realistic enough to see the value of prop up actions such as QE2. So let’s take stock of the down day on […]
At a time when the market isn’t heading up and experts are using terms like “consolidation” and “profit-taking”, it’s timely to see if the omens are still pointing to better or worse times ahead for stocks. Well-known bear economist Ian Shepherdson, who is the chief US economist at High Frequency Economics, who foresaw the housing […]
Wall Street drifted lower on no big news and after the US stock market hit a two-year high last week, it makes sense that the bulls are taking a breather. But there is a building controversy around the issue of just how safe an exchange-traded fund (ETF) is. Let me reveal my hand: I hold […]
The nation’s number one bank basher — Joe Hockey — says he’s not a bank basher but he wants a banking enquiry to raise the level of competition in the banking sector. And he’s absolutely right, as we do need a good hard look at banking in this country. The public outcry over our banks, […]
The biggest threat to average Australians this week could be good news! That’s right, a run of good news could make the Reserve Bank feel vindicated in raising interest rates and prime them for another hit, not in December, but possibly February. I noticed the AFR tried to sell newspapers on the weekend by spooking […]
While the Australian central bank took this week, luckily for local share players the US central bank was a giver. As a consequence, stand by for a great day on the market, despite the Oz dollar’s impost on our share prices. And in an irony, our banks could easily have a profitable day on the […]
While we’ve copped bad news with interest rate rises here, the Yanks have given us good news with the US election not disappointing Wall Street and the Fed promising to buy US$600 billion worth of long-term treasuries by the middle of 2011. So we have had the answers to two really important market-moving questions but […]
The combined actions of the Reserve Bank (RBA) and the Commonwealth Bank (CBA) on Cup Day is bound to rock the housing sector and if there’s a housing bubble — and there’s not! — then these surprise rises will prick it big time. The newspapers always talk about the average home loan slug on a […]
In case you are distracted by the Cup and wondering if you should back So You Think at 3/1, then remember the wise words my dear old Dad gave me: “You can make more money out of horses by following them around with a sugar bag and a shovel.” And that came from a man […]
Most Australians might think the Melbourne Cup or the Reserve Bank’s interest rate decision are the big events of the week but two pretty widely anticipated US revelations could have more material impact on our hip pockets, our jobs and our futures. The first is the FOMC meeting, which will tell us what the US […]
Last night I delivered an exclusive on my Sky News Business Channel program with Rodney Adler’s first TV interview since his release from jail. And I would like to explain why I gave him the time of day. After over 25 years writing for newspapers and appearing in the electronic media I haven’t received much […]
Wall Street pulled back which is typical with profit-takers likely to bank some profits ahead of the big news items next week. These include QE2 and the US mid-term elections — both events could be market-movers. By the way, some of the small fall for the S&P 500 — down 3.19 points or 0.27 per […]
Earlier this week, I referred to three reasons why a decent rally was in the wings. And today I will throw a few more logs on the fire. In case you missed it, I pointed out that a golden cross had emerged on the market charts and this is a good sign that markets are […]
A survey out last week showed nine of the top ten risks that keep the country’s top company number crunchers awake at night are external to their business. And guess what the number one concern is — the economic recovery. That might surprise the Reserve Bank, which is sure we’re on track for our long-term […]
We all know the cliché that bad things come in threes but could good things also come delivered in this way? Apart from the usual plethora of good omens I go searching for to offset the doomsday merchants, there are three market movers on the horizon over the next two weeks. The first is the […]
Anyone who made money after reading my take on James Packer’s raid on the Ten Network on Tuesday should be warned that my favourite company assessor thinks Ten’s intrinsic value is only 65 cents! That’s a long way from the closing price yesterday of $1.57. And this contradiction tells us a lot about making money […]
With the Australian stock market set to go higher today on the back of Wall Street putting in a very positive day on the New York Stock Exchange, the question has to be — can we trust this new-found American optimism? For numbers types, the Dow put on over 1.1 per cent and the S&P […]
At 6:15pm last night, I broke the news on the Sky News bulletin that James Packer gave lie to the argument that he no longer cared for media stocks and that he only gambled in gambling stocks nowadays. It looks like the media blood still runs in the Packer veins, especially when it comes at […]
As the Aussie dollar appreciates, with parity only likely to be a brief pit stop before heading higher, anyone in business not cheering the currency’s defiance of gravity has to be hoping that their potential customers are champing at the bit to spend. On the one hand, these hopeful business owners would have liked news […]
These are weird times on markets and economies and the weirdness even got weirder over the weekend as the Dow Jones fell and the Nasdaq went up strongly. Even the broader S&P 500 went up but this oddity of Dow down and everything up underlines a new spook factor that has been sent to unnerve […]
I said to Shane Oliver from AMP Capital Investors on my Sky News Business Channel program last night that this year has brought with it a new concern, which is a bit like a relentless tsunami of worry. Euro-debt concerns were followed by Euro-bank worries, then China’s housing bubble, then China’s slowdown, followed by the […]
Twice this week, a Sydney FM radio station newsroom called me to explain the strength of the Aussie dollar. And, of course, the killer question of the moment is will it reach parity? Economists believe that real people are preparing for parity parties and possibly the very suggestion that is being promoted by the media […]
Last night on my Sky News Business Channel program, the Government’s Bernie Ripoll outlined what law changes lie ahead for financial planners following an exhausting review into the financial services industry. The summary was really quite simple — all of the unseen, under-the-counter payments to planners, which could influence a planner’s decision on behalf of […]
When one of this country’s most respected bears goes positive, it has to be another sign that believing in this rally makes sense. And today’s small gains on Wall Street underlines my consistent view that there just isn’t enough to make share players sell with conviction. “You can’t argue with a trillion dollars,” argued Geoff […]
The economic scorecard for the US economy isn’t impressive — economic growth is below hopes, unemployment is stuck at 9.6 per cent, the latest employment report disappointed and the US consumer is saving and not spending — but yet the Dow crashed through the 11,000-level! What gives? How could an ordinary to negative jobs report […]
If you’re out of the stock market and want to time yourself in or if you’re in but are nervous about the precariousness of equities or shares, then I have got news for you — a majority of Aussie fund managers say the time for shares has arrived. And for Telstra watchers, they have formed […]
Wall Street refused to capitulate to negativity, despite some bad jobs data. Meanwhile two of the smartest guys in US financial markets gave stocks a big thumbs up, with one arguing that the US recovery is better than you might think. The big news that should have sent the market down was a decrease in […]
It’s good news week with the Reserve Bank rejecting a rate rise yesterday and then Wall Street kicking off with a two per cent jump on the S&P 500 index, again driven by positive news and comments. Market movers Let’s cut to the chase and run our eye over the drivers that helped this market […]
October is often thought to be the scariest month of all when stock markets crash such as in 1987 and 2008. However, the month of October has actually been the seventh best month for the Dow. Away from the market, the more worrying aspect of this October could be an expected interest rate rise from […]
After the Yanks had the best September on Wall Street in 71 years, the next logical question is — is it up or down from here? Let’s do some vital numbers to understand where we are and where we might be going. Try these: The Dow for the month was up 7.72 per cent, 10.37 […]
Political scientists might love the shenanigans going on in Canberra with all the thrills and spills of a minority government, conservative independents supporting Labor and the Greening of the parliament but spare a thought for business owners. One CEO last week told me that there’s a lot of head scratching going on overseas, which started […]
The commitment to buy stocks on Wall Street continued despite a disappointing reading on consumer confidence. And maybe it’s because smart traders know the US central bank’s desire to create growth out of increasing the money supply has to be good for stocks. The Bernanke put What it means is that the ‘Bernanke put’ as […]
No we’re not off to the races just yet and Wall Street’s slip overnight is proof but it doesn’t mean that US big bear, Robert Prechter is right when he says the Dow Jones is heading to 1000! Given the Dow Jones index is at 10,812.04, that’s a long way to fall — a very […]
In case you missed it, the big story on Wall Street was simple — the Dow was up 197.84 points or 1.86 per cent to 10,860.26! And the S&P 500 topped that putting on 2.12 per cent or 23.84 to finish at 1148.67. This is nicely higher from the important 1131-level that the market has […]
Wall Street headed south and the S&P 500 index went below the important 1131-level but maybe it was the pullback we had to have. Sometimes in the tricky, techy world of charts one step back can be a forerunner to a nice run up. Stocks went negative before the closing bell on the New York […]
Isn’t it ironic that in a week where no really significant economic data was to be put up for show and tell, the Reserve Bank gets in and stirs up a hornet’s nest of speculation. And let me make my tip, which I do reluctantly, I reckon we’re looking at an interest rate rise in […]
The only thing good about the latest speculation that the Reserve Bank will increase interest rates by 100 basis points next year, after a 25 basis points or 0.25 per cent rise before Christmas is that this very scare campaign might prevent this prediction from becoming a reality! Negative media By the way, there are […]
Expect a great day on the stock market today with Wall Street surging overnight with the S&P 500 breaking through an important resistance level and going substantially higher. In fact the Dow and the S&P 500 are on course, so far, to have the best September in 71 years! The Dow was around 145 points […]
Over the past few weeks I put the kibosh on double dip recession talk in the US and the stock market in recent days has supported the optimism. If the US economy can keep delivering better than expected economic readings or at least not as bad as predicted data then it would put a floor […]
Wall Street showed no conviction to go higher overnight but it’s definitely in no mood for a sell-off and that’s a great sign. And so was the Oracle profit, which jumped 38 per cent (adjusted for one-off items) beating expectations. These are the beautiful words — “beating expectations” — and the more we see them […]
Today I want to tell you why the S&P 500 index will break through the 1200-level by year’s end. And then I want to tell you why I could be wrong! In a sense this story could be described as the opposite of an old cliché — up but not in! In March 2008 before […]
Wall Street didn’t want to go negative overnight and the chief global equities strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research, Michael Hartnett, can probably explain why. He maintains it’s now time to buy stocks or any asset that offers good yield. He says there are bull markets developing in emerging markets because of their […]
Regular readers might remember when I advanced the proposition that the US recovery might not be V-shaped, nor U-shaped and I ruled out a W-shape or double dip with a second recovery, but it could be a square root recovery. That means the economy dives then recovers and then it tracks sideways. Now a mathematician […]
Banks shares could be under pressure today with 27 countries’ central bankers agreeing to new rules over the weekend that will make the world’s financial system safer and less likely to create future GFCs. However, it could make banks less profitable and that could hurt share prices. The New York Times reported that American banks, […]
There’s a guy I don’t know but I have to confess I hate him. He is an economist and so he does give you a head start on hating him. However, it’s his relentless commitment to supplying bad news, which makes me wish that his predictions be proved wrong and his credibility shot to pieces. […]
I got the rudest reply to a relevant question on my Sky News Business Channel program last night and it was one of the best answers my viewers could have ever heard. The perpetrator of this impertinence was Roger Montgomery and I have to admit he does it with a certain degree of respect and […]
With market news out of the US sparse on the ground, it’s timely to evaluate Independents’ Day in Canberra yesterday. In fact, what happens to resource stocks today should be interesting. On the decisions of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott to desert their apparent roots — conservative politics — to jump into bed with Julia […]
Based on what economists are seeing with US corporate earnings and where New York’s stock exchange indexes are, there’s reason to believe that the shares could rise over 30 per cent between now and March! That’s the view of Michel Knox, the chief economist of RBS Morgans in Brisbane. Of course, Knox is an economist […]
The first week in September on Wall Street might become a week to remember with economic data gradually turning to the more positive as better than expected results emerged from US number crunchers. And this is certainly ironic as September, historically, is the scariest month of all. That said, I made the point last week […]
Wall Street had another positive day with economic data again reminding the prophets of doom that there’s more life in the US economy than the so-called negative experts think. However, the big test for such a skittish market will be tonight’s jobs report. The Dow finished up 50.63 points or 0.49 per cent to 10,320.10 […]
What a difference a day makes, especially when the doomsday merchants are brought to book by hard data. And even the Yanks got into the better economic readings, with manufacturing continuing to defy the double dip pessimists, helping the S&P 500 index to rack up its best percentage move since 7 July. The broad market […]
Another day on Wall Street and while there was little advancement, there was no substantial sell off which shows maybe the double dip concerns are already, partly, sold into the market. It’s like we’re in a Wall Street shuffle, back and forth until some really good or really bad news happens. It’s bad news for […]
After a pretty substantial fall on Wall Street overnight, just after a big rise during the trading day before, the question has to be asked — how long does a rally last? In this market, the answer can be one day but the real question for the long-term investor is, should we remain in stocks […]
My Saturday morning was either going to be made or broken by two big news stories out of the US. The first was the second quarter GDP for the Yanks and the second was what the Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke had to say at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to a mob of central bankers. It turned […]
Wall Street has taken us into worrying territory with the Dow finishing below the psychologically important 10,000-level. This finish puts an intense focus on what the US economic growth reading will be tonight for the second quarter. A good figure would create a relief rally but a shocker could cripple confidence and the market. The […]
Wall Street limped across the line to end in positive territory but it wasn’t a bad effort given the fact that new housing sales recorded a terrible figure. And what looks a little surprising is the price of oil rose, which could be seen as a promising sign in the current investment world of disappointing […]
On a day when Wall Street has set us up for a pretty rough time on the stock market after existing home sales fell a whopping 27.2 per cent in the US, it has become essential to put some balance into the economic debate, particularly following a Four Corners report on Monday. Let me be […]
Wall Street’s stock market players clearly don’t have strong reasons to buy and it explains why so much cash is parked in bonds at the moment, robbing shares of their support. On the other hand, there’s no commitment to selling off the market as well. Monday in the US again told this story and it’s […]
Late last week my colleague on Sky News Business Channel, Mike Willesee, asked what the consequence might be for the stock market given the range of possibilities? I said if the Coalition won the market would go up. If Labor won, there would be no change but if there was a hung parliament, there could […]
Yesterday I suggested sentiment might be turning and it was, but unfortunately the US economy isn’t turning and until it does we will be captives to the day-to-day ups and downs that have dominated Wall Street lately. In summary, the Dow lost 144 points or 1.39 per cent to 10,271 while the broader S&P 500 […]
My charts guy Lance Lai called me yesterday afternoon and when he does this sort of thing it’s not to see how I am, but it’s because those damn wriggly, psychotic lines he’s always watching are either giving him good or bad vibes. So a call from him makes me a little jumpy and the […]
Wall Street reacted well to a good industrial production numbers and BHP-Billiton’s takeover offer for Canadian fertiliser business Potash for a cool US$38.49 billion dollars! Overall it was a great day at the office for Wall Street with the Dow up 103.84 points or a little over one per cent to 10,405.85 and the S&P […]
No conviction on Wall Street with mixed data not giving any solid reason to buy or sell en masse. And so it poses the question — what’s my next move? The answer is — sit tight as this market malaise will turn. That’s not to say that some time soon the stock market will go […]
Many part-time market players worry about October’s inclination to be harsh on share players but history says September can be a rougher month to make money as a long-only investor. Of course, short-sellers and their ilk see these two months as opportunities and that’s why I am wary at the moment for short-term share buyers. […]
The good news is that Wall Street didn’t spit the dummy and record a triple digit sell-off again. The bad news is we were down again, but really it’s to be expected as there’s no great news to scare the pants off the bears and the profit-takers. The Dow lost 58 points or 0.57 per […]
A couple of weeks ago, my charts guy on my Sky News Business Channel program predicted that those damn wriggly lines with their trend lines drawn in were pointing downhill. And Lance Lai was right! It doesn’t surprise me because the charts often get it right as they show where the weight of money is […]
I know some negative, doomsday merchant bears think my positive attitude to shares suggests that I could hail from Disneyland. However, it was Disney’s reporting after the closing bell on the New York Stock Exchange that has helped keep me committed to the belief that we’re in a buying opportunity, if you’re a long-term investor. […]
Despite expectations that the US economy will grow more slowly than previously thought, the Dow put on 45 points or 0.42 per cent and the S&P index added six points or 0.55 per cent. Meanwhile, on the local front it’s looking more likely that interest rates could be on hold for the rest of this […]
Wall Street’s failure to get too stressed out about a hardly impressive jobs report has to be seen a positive sign. In many ways, there were parallels with what we often see in footy matches. Anyone who watched the NRL St. George vs. Roosters game might say, sure the Roosters lost but given everything they […]
Not surprisingly, Wall Street marked time overnight waiting for the job numbers tonight. And share buyer enthusiasm wasn’t helped by less-than-flash retail numbers and a rise in initial jobless claims. That said, the Dow only lost 5.45 points and the S&P 500 slipped just over one point. I call it flat but it makes me […]
Wall Street brought good economic news, not great news, but it was enough to send the stock market indexes up. That’s great for the optimists out there but what’s really positive is the number of analysts all seeing the S&P 500 heading up to around 1300. This was the same target that Goldman Sachs’ Abby […]
Groucho Marx once brilliantly observed that “only one man in a thousand is a leader of men, the other 999 follow women!” Well, one of the women I follow is Goldman Sachs chief market strategist, Abby Joseph Cohen and she’s optimistic on stocks following the very impressive US corporate reporting season. She told CNBC that […]
The momentum of better than expected US company reporting and some more positive economic readings, which build the case for a slowdown rather than a double dip recession, has culminated in a spike on Wall Street overnight. And this will spur our market along today but will it last? That question will be progressively answered […]
The Yanks had their best month on the stock market in 12 months with the Dow Jones up over seven per cent while the local S&P/ASX 200, while up four weeks in a row, only added 4.46 per cent in July! Over the weekend, the US indexes were close to flat and that was despite […]
Even with the ‘best’ efforts of some US officials of questionable intelligence and with some uninspiring economic data over the past few weeks, the bears can’t get Wall Street to really spit the dummy. However, the big test comes tonight as the Yanks get their first look at the second quarter economic growth number for […]
For those who don’t like anything negative when it comes to their investments and want to find a positive out of today’s marginal fall of the Dow Jones index, try a more considered view on US earnings season, so far. On a day when the Dow lost 0.38 per cent and the S&P 500 dropped […]
The doubters will point to the weakness of Wall Street’s gain but they choose to ignore the fact that the Dow Jones index has been up four days in a row. And the index has been able to do this despite no real help from economic news, underlining how good the reporting season in the […]
Gradually the doomsday merchants are being proved wrong with company earnings continuing to beat expectations — even the housing sector kicked in to provide more reason for optimism. The Dow was up 100.81 points to 10,525.43 while the S&P 500 put on 1.12 per cent to 1115.01. This close broke the 200-day moving average to […]
The European bank stress tests couldn’t have come in any better with only seven banks out of 91 deemed vulnerable to another recession. This good news on more better than expected company reports helped the Dow Jones index up 102.32 points or nearly one per cent to finish at 10,424.62. This should help local shares […]
Great US company earnings and much improved economic news out of Europe set Wall Street up for a triple-digit move on the Dow, with that index up over 201 points to 10,322.3. The Nasdaq put on close to 2.7 per cent and the S&P 500 went up 2.25 per cent. It was a great day […]
Negative comments from the US central bank boss Ben Bernanke slightly spooked Wall Street overnight with the Dow losing a tick over one per cent and the S&P 500 dropping 1.28 per cent. The Dow Jones finished at 10,120.53 while the S&P stopped at 1069.59. Without the Fed Chairman’s blunt observations, the market might have […]
Another positive day on Wall Street and you get the feeling that positive sentiment is starting to compete effectively with the negative types who have been in control of the New York Stock Exchange since April this year. However, the battle of the bulls over the bears has not been won yet – Friday’s revelations […]
Just when Wall Street throws the monkey off its back – which hopped on late last week with a big slump in consumer sentiment and some disappointing company reports on the revenue-side – along comes another ordinary revenue report from the usually reliable IBM. This came after the Dow went positive for the first day […]
When my charts guy Lance Lai rang me on Friday afternoon and told me the technicals were not looking good, he was hoping I would have a fundamental story that could raise his hopes that the charts might get it wrong. My reply was simple — GE and the banks had to report better than […]
Wall Street has investors in two minds with company reporting impressing on the high side just when the economic readings are softening. And making the task of share prices to head up even harder has been the solid gains over the past week, where the US market indexes put on around seven per cent in […]
With Wall Street just making it into positive territory and on hold until the next batch of company reportings and market-moving economic data is revealed, over the next couple of days, let’s have a look at the controversial call that Australian property is a bubble which will burst. The media is reporting predictions by Jeremy […]
It’s been a big night for the optimists with the Dow Jones piling on 147 points and racking up six days of positive finishes to be up over seven per cent. The other indexes also had solid gains virtually wiping out the recent correction. The Nasdaq put on close to two per cent overnight and […]
Day one of US reporting season and Alcoa did better than expected on the top line and the bottom line. It also painted a rosier picture for aluminium, which means we can safely say — so far so good. In after hours trading Alcoa kicked up over 3.5 per cent and should help our market […]
The correction of the stock market is now re-correcting — let’s call it a rally — with the Dow Jones up 5.28 per cent last week. However, while we had a good week, up 3.72 per cent, it was not a great week. Though begging bulls can’t be choosers. Fortunately, there seems to be a […]
Another wow-day on Wall Street and it was a close run thing with the market flirting with the negative an hour before the close. However in a good sign, the bulls won the day with the Dow closing 121 points higher and importantly, it was near the highs of the day. And the solid finish […]
As Pamplona in Spain celebrated the “running of the bulls”, on Wall Street in New York, the bulls, at long last, ran over the top of the bears with a big rally on the New York Stock Exchange. The Dow was up over 270 points at the close and this should make the market optimists […]
The Yanks gave up a 170-point gain, went negative but finished in the black, which was not a bad effort considering they received another worse than expected economic reading. But the question the long-term investor has to ask is, ‘How important is this short-term data to your strategy?’ And are there believable arguments that build […]
With no Wall Street to determine direction today on the local stock market, it’s highly likely we will drift much like the FTSE in London, which lost around a third of a per cent. But what is intriguing me is the set we have seen against the banks and the lack of a big bounce […]
The two big issues for the week just gone were the replacement of the RSPT with the MRRT — mineral resource rent tax — and slowing down of the US economy. This of course brought double-dippers out in force but as usual these merchants of doom are acting more on speculation than fact. For those […]
Wall Street just won’t give us a break with another negative day as the Dow dropped 0.42 per cent, with disappointing economic news worrying investors. However, US economist Alan Greenspan has given us a cause for a bit of calm telling us that soft patches in an economic recovery are par for the course. Two […]
Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus and there is often a Santa Claus rally on Wall Street. And while I could have issues with the famous Virginia comforting line, I suspect and hope we see an end-of-year rally. But right now, six months from Christmas, I think the next few weeks will be challenging […]
The negative news is flowing and howling like Hurricane Alex off the Gulf of Mexico, and traders have headed for the exit doors on Wall Street. And I have to say the sellers had some solid reasons to doubt the growth outlook for the US and global economies. Apart from the usual concerns about Euro […]
The battle at the G20 meeting over the weekend got down to — to spend or not to spend — and the US, the country that has the best spenders in the world, want to keep on spending. Good on you Obama, I say, but you have to be careful. Spending your way out of […]
Wall Street was undecided how to react to the financial regulation reforms, which are set to be passed by the Congress this week, and so the finish was basically flat but the feeling is the bears still hold the upper hand. However, there’s a bull story which I don’t think is bull and it’s supported […]
Another bad day at the office on Wall Street and some of my readers and clients who can’t help but think they’re short-term investors, when in fact they are long-term wealth builders, are possibly starting to worry with the Dow down 145.64 points to 10,152.8. However, there was great news after the closing bell and […]
The two big stories for the morning for me were that Gillard stepped up to take the top job and that the economic signs are turning to the negative for the stock market. Let’s deal with the Gillard saga first. Breaking news At 7:30pm last night, right in the middle of my program on the […]
Another negative day on Wall Street and it would surprise me if our stock market can resist the gravitational pull. But how worried should we be right now? My answer is simple — not very. I have to confess that I don’t like dealing with a spooked stock market and that’s what we have right […]
It was great news to see Telstra spike up 3.4 per cent yesterday, however, in the early part of the day the stock was up over seven per cent. But this was a day when the overall market was up about 1.3 per cent and even Fortescue Metals put on 4.58 per cent. The kick […]
The case for a rally is building but there are those who think another correction could follow that. On the other hand, some ‘experts’ see the market going up around eight to nine per cent by year’s end. The simple story is that no one knows but so long as you have a long-term approach […]
After stocks had a rough day at the office, in the final hour the major US indices ended up positive, which was a pretty good effort considering some unsettling news on the economy has started to worry some investors. Remember one of the underlying bets going on in investors’ and traders’ minds is the strength […]
If the market’s reluctance to rise and its recent tendency to dive is stressing you out, don’t worry — there might be a stress relief market mover on the way. And if it works out, it could be the catalyst for the rally that lies ahead. The promise of a market maker, which could, if […]
Wall Street gave into the positive vibe with stocks rallying on better European debt news and then the technicals took over. But the big question is, can it last? The news I like to read early in the morning is that the euro went up against the US dollar. When the euro goes up and […]
For public holiday revellers, there have been two days of Wall Street we need to review to get a feel for what might happen today on our markets. Friday’s Dow Jones close was a 38.54 rise to 10,211.07 but it lost 20.18 points this morning and you can blame bad news flow and a couple […]
As if willed by a desperate optimist like yours truly, Wall Street has turned on a dime and headed up. And it was good economic news that helped the market move higher. The 2.76 per cent jump in the Dow Jones — that’s 273 big points — and the two per cent plus rises in […]
OK, Wall Street couldn’t deliver a positive outcome but the fact there wasn’t a rout on the US stock market is a good sign. You have to remember the flow of news is to the negative with ratings agencies such as Fitch inadvertently — I hope it is inadvertent! — making life easy for short-sellers […]
We needed a Wall Street relief rally and it turned up on cue but now we have to see some consolidation so a base is built to unwind the correction. As I have said before, we have to see the positives of the US recovery out-punch the negatives coming out of Europe. But wait, there’s […]
The resource super profits tax is a big deal for Australian investors and our political parties as well as their enamoured supporters but it remains a sideshow to the real drivers or destroyers of stock market confidence and share prices. Regular readers know I’m not a fan of the tax in its current form as […]
The big news is that the Dow Jones index finished down below 10,000 and you can blame a disappointing US jobs report, which President Barack Obama had inferred was going to be good and people believed him, but that was only part of the story. The Dow lost 323 points of 3.2 per cent and […]
The banks copped a bagging in the Fairfax press and the charge is gouging which has delivered billions. But rather than complaining, maybe you can come up with a strategy that could turn this into a bottom line advantage. The allegation is that the big banks which have been crying poor because they are borrowing […]
The Australian stock market will be up today with Wall Street ignoring more Spanish bulldust with investors focusing on good economic news. And President Barack Obama helped by making comments that helped natural gas producers and the thrill seekers in the nuclear industry. Also US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner made some sensible comments ahead of […]
A viewer to my program SWITZER on Sky News Business Channel made the point that he was a regular ‘watcher’ of the show but he reckoned the resource super profits tax had made my show slip! That is, he inferred that I have a political bias, which was now showing. And because I won’t let […]
The Yanks are on a public holiday — Memorial Day — and so, for a change I have gone to Europe to see what has happened there overnight. And in reality it’s the place to look given it’s the stumbling block for the global recovery. In fact, its pathetic management of the debt dramas on […]
Europe and its EU member nations are going to make life on stock markets hard again this week as the negativity of what Europe’s problems might mean for the global economy, credit markets and then share prices goes into battle against an improving US economy and even an economically healthier Japan! Over the weekend, Wall […]
It’s ironic but just as the media runs with the story that the Rudd Government was rethinking its resource super profits tax, the stock market has a big bounce. Of course, the decision did not drive Wall Street but it will push our market up today with the Oz dollar up over the 84 US […]
Wall Street’s failure to go on with the positive job overnight could be seen as a disappointment but it could be the calm before the storm. Or maybe I should call it the friendly wind that blows up a few buying opportunities. Running my eyes over the banks and their current share prices and then […]
You may well ask what in the hell is going on in financial markets? And the accurate answer is a lack of confidence is mixing in with trading opportunists who play the momentum and the trend. The negative news At the moment the news is negative. While it’s not all negative, the negative is far […]
I have to take a very early flight to Cairns today but I wanted to hit you with a dramatic observation about the resource super profits tax (RSPT). While I have been away in Shanghai, the Rudd team have gone back to what they know — politics — to battle the mining industry, which is […]
After a week of disastrous dives, Wall Street went positive after a pretty worrying start on Friday. This should give our market a chance to resist gravity today. However, there’s still a lot of nervousness out there. So, why is the current crop of market sell-offs happening? And how worried should we be? Who’s who? […]
Stock markets are sent to test us and the ordeal is made worst when Governments and politicians trying to save their skins get in the way. Overnight Wall Street had its worst day of the year. And investors were worried about a German vote on the European rescue plan and the US Senate was to […]
Waking each morning in Shanghai this week I’m two hours behind my usual Wall Street play and it has meant I have been two hours late in saying what I have said all week when I have jumped out of bed: “What the…?” And while I don’t like to see the market head down, I […]
After jumping the gun and forcing up interest rates to avoid a future inflation threat, our Reserve Bank could be now having a Homer Simpson “D’oh!” moment with the Euro debt crisis raising the spectre of not inflation, but deflation! The simple thinking would run this way — Europe’s austerity measures shows down eurozone growth, […]
The bears are getting an upper hand on the stock market with oil dropping below US$70 a barrel as a reflection of Europe’s woes having an impact on China. The Shanghai Composite has had a steep fall and is back to May 2009 levels. However, Wall Street showed that the smart guys and gals have […]
Euro-worries have again spooked Wall Street with the Dow Jones off 162.79 points to end at around 10,620.16 — that’s 1.5 per cent — and the more important S&P 500 dropped a more concerning 1.88 per cent to 1135.68. However, for the week the Dow put on 2.31 per cent and the S&P 500 added […]
The Dow and other US markets were down overnight but there was a really good sign — Wall Street ignored promises from Portugal to be fiscally responsible, instead concentrating on the US economy! I am sure many of you might be saying: “What?” How is it good that US markets fell and it’s a positive […]
More good news on the stock market front with Wall Street up again and nicely higher, which reinforces my view that we’re creeping out of the European debt woods (or are they a black forest)? Whatever, the timing of this rise suggests that the bailout plan for the likes of Greece is convincing more people […]
The Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, has turned to the one part of his reign that he could argue he has got right — the economy — to try and rebuild his credentials to lead, as well as his popularity. All Treasurers love to pull a rabbit out of a hat to win positive headlines in […]
Day one since Europe came to its senses with its 750 billion euro bailout of its problem child debtors and the reaction has been positive. Thank God because if the market rejected the credibility of this rescue we really would have had a Lehman Brothers Mk II market slump re-run on our hands! Happily Wall […]
Today will be a first up test of the Greek bailout package that was finally sorted out over the weekend and should be the foundations for seeing stock markets rebuild confidence. At this stage, early indications point to a down day on the local stock market but there are grounds for hope. Wall Street’s negative […]
It was the worst possible outcome with the Greek debt problem colliding into what appears to be a computer stuff-up. The Yanks jokingly call it a “fat-finger typo”, where someone has hit the wrong trade. However, the incident, which saw the Dow drop close to 1000 points, shows how vulnerable world stock markets are right […]
With Wall Street still wary of the Euro debt problems, the question becomes — is this a reason to get out of shares or is it another buying opportunity? If you look at the economics of the US economy, the Asian economies and our own, you would have to remain a believer in the bull […]
It was a challenging day, not just for Wall Street, but for the rest of the world’s stock markets with fears spreading that the Greek debt ‘horror movie’ could have remakes in Spain and Portugal. If the rumour mongers are right, but I suspect there are short-sellers and hedge funds at work here, we could […]
Australian resource stocks and their concerned CEOs have their first test today with Wall Street strongly positive this morning. The action suggests that our market should head up and if resource share prices follow the expected trend, then Government ministers will be asking what they were whinging about? However, if they don’t have a good […]
Following the Government’s response to the Henry Tax Review, which will rip around $10 billion a year off miners to fund some superannuation and small business generosity, as well as a falling company tax rate, the stock market should fall today. However, it won’t be because Treasurer Swan and his boss, K. Rudd have targeted […]
Another bad day for the poor old bears on Wall Street and other stock markets with another round of “a Greek bailout package is close” placating investors. Once ‘Eurotrash’ debt problems stop spooking, investor go back to US earnings, which have been great. Let me give you a warning, no, let’s call it a lesson […]
What a surprise! The Greek tragedy of yesterday has not turned into contagion and another stock market collapse and that’s why I used the bullsh–t word yesterday. Don’t get me wrong, the European debt issue is a concern but it has been exaggerated. Greece was always the most vulnerable economy to an event like this […]
The Dow had its worst fall in months after debt ratings on Greece and Portugal were downgraded. This is such bullsh-t and is typical of the day-to-day market traders that exploit bad news to make money. Long-term traders should take these days as buying opportunities. Greece and Portugal are nothing economies, which have little economic […]
Talk of another correction is sneaking into commentators’ columns but the bull rally continues with US earnings surprising on the high side, underlining that a disaster is coming fraternity are wrong for now. On Wall Street shares went to a 19-month high and they had put in eight weeks in a row on a rise […]
The country’s most important bean counters, sorry, chief financial officers, are surveyed by Deloitte and here were the interesting findings: Two-thirds of Australian CFOs predict a slow and stable recovery 28 per cent predict a quicker ‘V’ shaped recovery 65 per cent of CFOs are finding credit easier to access 93 per cent expect lending […]
With the Goldman Sachs story — no, drama — now spreading from Wall Street to Germany and the UK, the next local question has become — could it become an Aussie issue? And this comes as Nouriel Roubini is up to his usual tricks of spreading fear to try to make his predicted ‘disaster movie’ […]
One of my guests on SWITZER on the Sky News Business Channel last night was apologetic for being a cautious investor right now suggesting it didn’t make for interesting TV. I corrected him and it did make great TV — the lessons were a ripper as well as a must adhere to for all investors. […]
Ahead of the May Federal Budget, more economists are now thinking the month could usher in the overdue pause by the Reserve Bank with their rush to the so-called normal level of interest rates. And it therefore makes it timely to see what parts of the Aussie economy are doing well, and those which are […]
Today the market is bound to follow Wall Street’s negative lead following the charging of Goldman Sachs by Securities Exchange Commission. This could be a trigger from left-field that could cause a market correction. My guess is that there will be a sell-off but a not a correction of 10 per cent. The negatives of […]
Another great day for the bulls with Google reporting strongly on Wall Street and the Yanks getting another good economic report on manufacturing. Good bordering on great The Philadelphia Fed said its manufacturing index rose to 20.2 in April from 18.9 in March. This is just another better-than-expected economic report. This follows the Empire State […]
It’s significant that on the day that my old UNSW colleague, Steve Keen, starts his walk from Canberra to Mt Kosciuszko, wearing a T-shirt which reads — “I was hopelessly wrong on house prices. Ask me how.” — Wall Street finished up over 103 points at 11,123.11. That’s five days in a row for the […]
Last night on my program, SWITZER on Sky Business, BT’s chief economist Chris Caton said he thought the S&P/ASX 200 would get to 5250 this year and he has stuck to this number for quite some time. He also said he believed in the US recovery that can make his market index call end up […]
Is the Reserve Bank starting to crack on interest rates? Maybe we won’t we see interest rates go up four more times this year? That was my hopeful conclusion following an interesting comment from Guy Debelle, the Assistant Governor of the RBA to a parliamentary committee yesterday. And it came when new home loan figures […]
The Switzer Stocks Scoreboard looks back at the week that was in money, economics and business ahead of the start of reporting season in the USA this week. The company profit results and outlook statements could make or break Wall Street’s drive above the Dow 11,000 level and beyond. On Friday, the Dow Jones index […]
Two troubling things have driven the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to make this questionable decision to raise interest rates again. One is rising house prices and second, the Bank’s board thinks we have a terms of trade shock that’s going to ‘drown’ poor little Australia with income! Too much income when unemployment is so […]
I know the doomsday merchants trying to talk down the stock market are giving it another shot after 13 months of stock market gains and one guy tried to point to today as a sign that a sell-off is in the wind. Call me an economist but I just can’t buy this bad news story […]
One of the great parts of my business life is to get inside the heads of experts and, for hip pocket reasons, I always love it when the person I am talking to is the head of Australian equities giving away the stocks he or she really like. On my Sky News Business Channel program, […]
The Switzer Stocks Scoreboard for the start of this Easter-shortened week starts with what was always going to be the biggest wealth building business news story of the week — the US jobs report. And the news was good and that helped Wall Street start the week in positive territory. The S&P 500 was up […]
With the latest round of downbeat data, the Reserve Bank can’t raise interest rates on Tuesday and hide behind its newfound TV buddy — Kochie. In fact, if they raise rates on Tuesday, I would expect me old mate David to give them a serve. Retail sales fall For months the retailers kept telling us, […]
What’s the appeal of a guy like Jordan Belfort, who has become ‘affectionately’ known as the Wolf of Wall Street? After all, this is a guy who was a drug addict and who was jailed for behaviour unbecoming of someone who was supposed to be a trusted adviser of a New York brokerage. Well, being […]
Beware Reserve Bank Governors giving advice as they could come with the best of intentions but still leave behind the wrong message. This was my reaction when media reports warned that Glenn Stevens said don’t just think that buying property will make you rich. It’s possibly the problem of media sound bites but when a […]
I know there are a lot of concerns out there from Greece and its debt dramas to double dip talk in the US to the share spooking sinking of a South Korean ship but let’s focus on the positive. Here’s Switzer’s Share Scoreboard, which tracks the big market movers that could have a big impact […]
If Phillipa Green ran Babcock & Brown rather than Phil Green, would the Macquarie wannabe still be around today? And would the GFC market crash have been as bad and even the boom before as big, if women dominated the trading world? A great yarn in New York Magazine by Sheelah Kolhatkar posed this intriguing […]
Last night on my SWITZER program on the Sky News Business Channel, Professor Ron Bewley looked at his local version of the fear index and pronounced that volatility readings suggest the market heads higher. And if he’s right it could be time to start trawling for some small cap companies that were beaten up in […]
With all of the hullabaloo over Westpac charging interest on interest and fees on credit card balances, I thought it was time to remind people that to be money savvy, not wanting to be ripped off and by actually wanting to end up wealthier over time, you can’t be a credit card patsy. Discredit cards […]
The ups and downs of the stock market daily and the media reports that go with it really have to be scrutinized with the kind of cynicism you reserve for politicians. That is, you have to note what they’re saying but it’s not always wise to take them seriously. In fact, I get so tired […]
As a unique Monday morning offering I have created a Switzer Scoreboard that captures the big market-moving stories of last week and the ones that could move stock markets and more this week. Wall Street couldn’t make it 9 days in a row but still ended up over 1 per cent for the week. On […]
There are many questions for the 1.4 million Telstra shareholders as the telco deals with the possible break up of the company. Should you sell? Hold for the dividend? Buy more? But if you do sell, what do you buy? Government effect The less successful the Rudd Government is at breaking up Telstra, the higher […]
Barring anything from left field, as Kath from Kath & Kim might say, “I feel it in me waters” that a stock market run up is about to happen. It comes as the Dow Jones hit a 17-month high overnight. In fact, the index is up seven days in a row, which is its best […]
There are two headlines that will always get me in. The first says something like — ‘The Dow to drop 1000 points!’ The other comes from the law of opposites and therefore would look like — ‘The Dow to add 1000 points’. That’s why I could not resist CNBC when it screamed — ‘Dow Headed […]
I don’t know what is Chinese for ducks and drakes but that’s what I think Premier Wen Jiabao was playing when he dropped the double-dip recession line over the weekend. His words spooked stock markets but they were meant to scare the likes of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, which are negotiating iron ore contracts […]
In case you are wavering and worried that we’re missing something that could determine the direction of the stock market, well, maybe you are, but it’s nothing to worry about if you have a reasonable exposure to shares. X-factor As I always argue, an event from left field, sometimes called an X-factor, which most can’t […]
Since the beginning of February our S&P/ASX 200 index is up around five per cent and that’s a nice gain. That’s what you missed out on if you weren’t in the stock market. On the other hand, in January the market was down six per cent and in two months the market has been down […]
Over the years I have been amazed how technically-savvy this country’s entrepreneurs are, but it takes a special breed of businessperson to both understand business and technology. Obviously Bill Gates did and it explains why Microsoft has been such a success story. And, of course, so did the Google guys — Larry Page and Sergey […]
If a fear of a double dip recession is holding back your enthusiasm for shares right now, you should know the chances of this happening are lengthening. And best of all this is a view I share with my favourite female forecaster — Abby Joseph Cohen. Not only is she a hotshot on Wall Street, […]
At the risk of stealing a line made famous by Rove McManus, when I think about the Telstra share price languishing below $3 and in the record low close price of $2.91 territory, I can only come up with: “What the #!#!” Thank God so many Aussies are welded onto the stock market via superannuation. […]
Looking at the economic and corporate tea leaves it foretells a story that looks very likely to come to pass — the stock market promises a minimum return this year of 10 per cent but could easily be 20 per cent! Of course, something could come from left field that is not on the radar […]
Forbes magazine has done the numbers on the country’s richest and a Western Australian man and woman won the titles for their respective genders. And when I was thinking about how these people built their fortunes, I thought it was a good time for all of us to assess how our wealth-building strategies have worked […]
What has always got me beat is how we Aussies love the idea of bricks and mortar but we’re so indifferent about our superannuation. Well, I think it’s high time there was a public movement to stop super suffering the Rodney Dangerfield syndrome. Dangerfield was famous for his line: “I get no respect,” and so […]
Another first Tuesday of the month has come and gone for the borrowers of Australia and the anxiety of awaiting the decision by the Reserve Bank board on the fate of their monthly repayments has brought another slug to the country’s hip-pockets. The financial markets said it was going to be 50:50 but a survey […]
Hats off to The Daily Telegraph today, which ran a good news story quoting an investment guru who prophesised good times ahead! In the media, it can sometimes be a lonely place being an optimist. The typical fare we cop in the media are sensational stories that range from natural disasters to unnatural human beings […]
Right now there has been a run of US economic data that doesn’t look real flash. The same is happening here in Australia but let me do a Roman soothsayer and warn beware the Ides of March and short-term data watching. For those who have never checked it out, the Ides of March is the […]
I can’t believe I am about to write this, but a couple of bad days on the stock market could stop the Reserve Bank from raising interest rates next Tuesday. This follows some fairly impressive business investment figures this week. To explain my unusual reasoning that stocks falling could be a ‘good thing’, let’s start […]
With earnings season in full swing, I put it to Austock’s private client expert Joseph Youssef to see what his top 10 stocks for 2010 were. As usual, he didn’t disappoint and he provided some stocks with some interesting upside. Number one His number one stock was Boart Longyear, which is the number one drilling […]
Wall Street did not like the latest reading on US consumer confidence, which dived in February to its lowest level in 10 months! But the big question for investors is, does a US recovery need consumers? The Conference Board, which checks the pulse of consumers, found that confidence fell from 56.5 in January to 46 […]
On the weekend, the AFR put together a nice 10-point plan for making sure you whipped your self-managed super fund (SMSF) into shape but a couple of important, no, crucial matters were not rammed home. Nowadays, there are around 417,400 SMSF or DIY funds and the calibre of how they are run ranges from professional […]
With the start to the 2010 share-buying season dancing with a correction which then has been partially ‘recorrected’ such that Wall Street’s S&P 500 is down around half-a-per cent while our S&P/ASX 200 is off 4.7 per cent, the question is: “Should we be optimistic on shares?” Over the weekend, a Reuters article pointed out […]
Experts often bag the idea of ‘buy and hold’ portfolios but RBS Morgans stockbroker Simon Bond actually brought out one constructed 10 years ago that returned 165.8 per cent on share price movement and had an 10.78 per cent yield on cost price. The All Ords over that time was up 40.93 per cent. For […]
The good news is that the Reserve Bank might not raise interest rates in March. The bad news is that the official cash rate of interest set by the central bank could be five per cent by year’s end. It’s now at 3.75 per cent and that means our home loan interest rates could end […]
This might sound like national treachery of Quisling proportions but I have to confess to loving the Big Four Australian banks! Yes, I know that they have an inclination in varying degrees for being absolute bastards but, like family members who can occasionally let us down, they are still worthy of love — albeit tough […]
One continual theme that I keep getting on my television program — SWITZER on the Sky News Business Channel — is this expert view that the best strategy for this year, when it comes to buying shares, is to pick the value companies. But that’s easier said than done and that’s why certain experts will […]
Don’t worry about your ageing parents, especially if they’re baby boomers, but they could spend your inheritance. And if that should be your fate, at least invest in the businesses that might take your money! I’m not arguing that your parents want to leave you nothing when they die, but there have been a few […]
Right now with Greece and its piggy mates spooking stock markets, the question for money makers is, ‘will there be more correction or a spurt in the market?’ It gets down to, are we heading for a bull rush or a bear trap, or should it be called a PIGS trap? Putting pressure on share […]
For the first time since 6 March last year, long-term investors need to be wary of the hogwash that is coming out linked to the debt of the naughty little PIGS of Europe. PIGS stands for the debt-ridden countries of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain. And the latest contributor to put his snout in the commentary […]
Markets hate uncertainty, especially negative uncertainty, and right now the PIGS of Europe are spooking the ‘you know what’ out of bond and stock markets. Thankfully, the right noises are coming out of Germany who could wind up being the big brother for Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain as they struggle with their debt issues. […]
History has often shown me that it seldom pays to ignore your gut feelings when it comes to judging people but I have reservations about using the same assessment process when it comes to markets and making money. I prefer hard economic and corporate data and on that basis all long-term investors should be buyers […]
Once again investors find themselves in a Dirty Harry-style predicament where they have to ask — do they feel lucky? Instead of a long-barrelled handgun being held to their head, it’s a bullet in the form of a sovereign debt problem that has spooked but has not rocked stock markets, at least yet! US unemployment […]
Hold your breath and brace for a bad day on the markets with even the Oz dollar now slumping into the 86 US cents band. And the two reasons for drama today were the two concerns I outlined yesterday — US unemployment figures and the sovereign debt worries in places such as Greece, Spain and […]
Optimists may well see my usual diet of easily digestible economic and company titbits as building the case for an improving stock market this year. But what would keep me awake at night if I wasn’t absolutely knackered when my head hits the pillow? There are two things. First, it’s this sovereign debt mess that […]
Beware the doomsday merchants; they could prove very costly! I was just thinking about this when I saw real estate prices in Australia rose by 13.6 per cent last year. In case you missed it, there have been two takes on what our house prices have done. The Australian Bureau of Statistics house price index […]
After some pretty bad days at the office for Wall Street and even worse ones for the local stock market, the Yanks went positive this morning with the Dow up 118 points to 10,186 points. This makes me want to tell you — don’t believe the doomsday merchants — at least at the moment. Sure, […]
There are two big questions as we greet the first trading day of February. The first is, are we in for a 10 per cent plus drop correction in the stock market? And second, will the January Effect determine what happens to our investments over the course of this trading year? Rules of thumb History […]
Bill Clinton once reminded us about the importance of the economy in his famous “it’s the economy, Stupid” remark. And it is, but he could have added, “it’s company earnings too, Dopey!” You don’t have to be an academic economist to understand the link between the economy and company earnings. Simply, if an economy is […]
Christmas and all of its shopping and celebrating activities can be a distraction — a great distraction. And my case was proved on 16 December when I missed an email that told me three out of four fund managers are positive about shares this year. But wait there’s more — a lot more! One out […]
When PM Kevin Rudd gets over his number one Aussie persona, which he had publicly for a day on 26 January, he will have to put his mind to what lies ahead for him and his party during this election year. And he might reflect on a bit of Shakespeare if he wants some guidance […]
There’s a lot of talk about a correction of the stock market around right now, but the only people who should be really worried are short-term investors, day traders and fund managers who have to show their investment results every three months. All the experts will tell you that last week was the worst on […]
Just when market prophets have been warning a correction of share prices is looming, along come two big, responsible question marks that have rattled stock players. The first is the worries over China. The second, President Obama’s bank bashing. First trigger Ironically, this comes as China revealed it has grown at a slam-dunking 10.7 per […]
You don’t have to be an economist to know China is delivering big time on the economic growth front and this should provide a bit of a protective blanket for our economy. But the nagging question is — will the rest of the developed world let us down and ruin our party? The Behravesh view […]
The thing about travelling to places such as New York is that you are taken out of your comfort zone. And for a media man like me it means you become a Wall Street Journal and New York Times kind of guy for the time you are in the Big Apple. I learnt years ago […]
Star Wars legend Obi-Wan Kenobi made the advice — “use the force Luke” — famous. A line I pedalled, Kenobi-style, with great success last year, will be re-run this year. And that counsel is — buy the dips. Long-term view Warnings of corrections abound and many of them come from hedge fund managers who are […]
Just when the experts were telling us that the Reserve Bank wouldn’t raise interest rates in February — poof! — like in the smoke of a magic trick, these prophecies have disappeared. And it’s the same ‘experts’ now predicting a rise! Now, I can’t read the minds of the Reserve Bank board, but they are […]
For those worried about the doomsday merchants and their prophecies of double dip recessions and share price bedlam, it’s worth noting that the formidable IBISWorld predicts 2010 will be a boom year for Australian business. The experts there go further and predict that the next five years will bring significant economic growth. “The fact that […]
Looking to build your wealth through property? This is my Property Manifesto, which outlines what you should know when trying to build your wealth by speculating on bricks and mortar. The strategies There are two standout strategies. Both cash in on the nice parts of the tax system, but there are a few fine details […]
This time last year, I was cautiously optimistic that we would see an economic and stock market rebound over 2009. I didn’t expect the share price comeback to be as big as it turned out to be, so what is my crystal ball telling me for the year ahead? Market guess What I am about […]
At the end of last year, the people over at CommSec did a very bad and dangerous thing— they evaluated the accuracy of economic forecasters. And they actually named the country’s best forecasters for 2009. You might not be surprised that CommSec, a part of the CBA team finished in the top five and while […]
The tabloid press was knocked out by a survey of New Year’s Day resolutions a couple of years ago that put the old favourites of giving up smoking, getting fit and losing weight into second, third and fourth places of the top promises for the year ahead. Resolution number one The new top resolution […]
I have many favourite quotations that drive me daily and I share them regularly with my business and personal investment audiences. However, I have two I use the most to make people take on their biggest challenge to their success – themselves! Make wealth a reality This is the final and 12th article in […]
On the penultimate day of my money makeover, which has stretched over 10 previous articles, I’ve tried to give you the solid foundations needed to turn your money life around. Eliminate the chaos Most of us live our money lives with varying degrees of chaos and the more you can minimise – or, hopefully, […]
The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times recently looked at the performance of shares over the past decade. The themes of their stories were that shares had under-performed pretty badly. However, incomplete pictures were put into focus with these snapshots. Thrill seekers only need apply Collectively these articles told any reader that […]
In the previous two instalments of my money makeover, I looked at getting your hard earned money into property and shares. Now comes the boring wealth spinner — bonds, fixed interest and cash. The professionals will look at these three asset classes as being different investment alternatives, but to normal people, they do have common […]
In Friday’s installment of my 12-part money makeover series, I looked at ways to build your wealth using good old bricks and mortar. Now I want to put the spotlight on this asset’s mortal enemy — shares! The eternal battle In stockbroker or financial adviser circles, there’s an age-old battle between which asset class is […]
It’s now time for the actual stuff you can do to start getting wealthier. In articles over the past week, which you can check out here, I gave you the fundamentals for changing yourself, setting your goals, finding the money to invest and destroying debt. Coming soon Over the next six instalments, I¹ll look at […]
“The secret of success is sincerity. Once you can fake that you’ve got it made.” So wrote Arthur Bloch in Murphy’s Law Two. Everyone wants a reputation for being really charitable but few of us are prepared to sacrifice a whole lot to get this high community rating. Well, to be good with money, you […]
A bank, by tempting us with credit cards, is the modern day pariah that seduces many of us into a life of wealth-killing debt. Though I must say I have met people who have used credit cards to kick off great businesses, but, in pure numbers, these people are few and far between. Credit cards […]
At the risk of being called dull and boring, again let me remind you that the main game has to be to find money and get it into income earning assets. At the same time, you must have a serious look at the disastrous debt situation you might be in, and then you have to […]
What follows are the 10 habits of successful wealth builders. There are more, but I think these are a nice start. If you’re not ticking off at least eight of these, then you are probably reducing your chances of maximising your richness in the future. 1. Like a business with a business plan, create a […]
Success is simple — CHANGE! But that’s the hard bit. How do you change? There are seven questions you have to answer: Hands up those who want to be a success? Hands up those who want to be wealthier? Hands up those who want a great business, that works really well, is a pleasure to […]
Apart from not being loved, our next greatest fear is to be poor. For some of us, it’s our greatest worry but, rankings aside, no one wants to have money worries. A couple of years ago, a post-New Year’s Eve survey found, for the first time ever, the top New Year’s resolution was “to get […]
As 2010 looms, I remain positive on the economy and stock market. No one should expect anything like this year with the 50 per cent jump since March in equities, but a nice rise, which could surprise on the high side, is possible. Optimist’s bandwagon It was in the depths of the GFC market crash […]
Two days ago, I promised to look at my second top 10 stocks for my portfolio. Excuse me for being old fashioned but I like to get rich slowly, which means I don’t get too many rude shocks when asset prices endure a crash of 2008 proportions. My underlying strategy is to buy great brand […]
To rework a quote from the less than formidable, albeit funnier, source — Rodney Rude — I hate it, I hate it when doomsday merchants and short-sellers are given a chance to talk their own book. The latest is the so-called legendary hedge fund manager and short-seller Jim Chanos of Kynikos Associates who calls China […]
A regular reader of our website cornered me at a recent Christmas party and asked, “But what are the best 10 stocks I should be in?” Of course, the answer is impossible to throw out to anyone with a glass of champagne in his hand overlooking Sydney Harbour. And anyway, as a financial planner, it’s […]
As someone who spearheaded the “we might avoid a technical recession” and that “stock markets usually bounce 26 per cent on average after a crash” points of view months before the March rebound of share prices, I just love it when I find those who share my 2010 optimism. Of course, there are a hell […]
This has to be the most outrageous business story of the year and it’s up against a lot of stiff competition. And let me say, until now I didn’t think there was much of a problem with executive pay, but I now think I was wrong, especially when it comes to financial institutions. When it […]
Every time I see the market use some bad economic or market news to sell off, my reaction is to think of the legendary Star Wars character, Obi-Wan Kenobi, who might have shared the wisdom with long-term investors to: “Buy the dips, long-term investor. Buy the dips.” Sure, there is bad news around, but you […]
Out of good taste let me sanitise an old saying that has relevance to my view on experts and what they think about the stock market in 2010 — opinions are like rear ends, every one has got one! That’s why I like to listen to lots of opinions but especially from those with good […]
What follows are the top 10 economic predictions for 2010 from Nariman Behravesh, the chief economist at IHS Global Insight. I thought these are worth looking at as we get prepared for our 2010 investment strategy and attitude. (My comments are in italics.) Here they are: 1. The US recovery will start slowly. The forecaster […]
The Yanks and President Obama got some great news on the jobless front last Friday while our Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will be hoping he comes home from Copenhagen with a Christmas climate change gift. This might be easier said than done with Tony Abbott looming as a festive season Grinch. The old cliché There’s […]
When I think about what the US has to do to cement this stock market recovery, it gets down to — read my words, to rework a Clinton quote, “it’s jobs, stupid!” Tomorrow the USA gets the critical unemployment number when the latest monthly jobs report is released. This revelation could have a big bearing […]
Today the Yanks got, just in time for Christmas, the most exciting, boring sounding book of all time. It is called the Beige Book and you would have to think that only a group of accountants, economists and public servants could come up with a name like this. Beige is one of the most unemotional […]
Gail Kelly has gone to the top of the class making her the favourite to win the greediest banker of the year award. The action by Westpac to raise home loan interest rates by 0.45 per cent when the Reserve Bank raised the cash rate of interest by 0.25 per cent is unnecessary and greedy. […]
The local stock market shrugged off the Dubai doubts with the ASX 200 up 129 points to end at 4,701. Fortunately we woke this morning to comforting headlines, which read: “Abu Dhabi soothes Dubai fears”. The UAE To those not up with the seven Emirates that make up the United Arab Emirates, Abu Dhabi is […]
It was only a year ago that Dubai was the world champion of the cranes on the skyline test. It has hotels in the middle of the sea and has re-created a micro-Venice in a resort complete with gondolas, but now it wants half a year off from paying its debts. So, should we be […]
While the Americans tuck into their Thanksgiving turkeys, I hope the board members of the Reserve Bank take a lead from the significance of the timing and the investment figures we saw here yesterday to make sure they don’t act like turkeys next Tuesday by raising interest rates again. Given what’s happening here in our […]
For those who have missed the best eight months of your money making life not being exposed to shares from 6 March this year and for those who have been lucky enough to have made around 50 per cent in that time, the question is the same: “What do I do now?” Of course there […]
Since the 6 March low on the stock market, the S&P/ASX 200 index has ridden up close to 50 per cent and now the doomsday merchants are trying to spook the market. And while most experts I talk to are putting their money on a Santa Claus rally, they would not be surprised to see […]
Financial planners can breathe easy, for now, following the tabling of the bi-partisan Ripoll Inquiry into the financial advice industry. And for those who might be wondering — it’s the Ripoll Inquiry, not the Rip Off Inquiry. The recommendations are not aggressive and ultimately left the whip for the Rudd Government to pick up to […]
It’s a big week in the USA in more ways than one. First, the very-American Thanksgiving Day happens on Thursday. I have to say that I only understand Thanksgiving through the movies we have been brought up on and some of my favourites have been around this very holiday. In fact, The Huffington Post wants […]
Last night I had the pleasure of interviewing Layne Beachley on my program — SWITZER — on Sky News Business Channel. And you might ask what the greatest female surfer of all time is doing on a business and money show, but the answer is simple — it’s all about going from good to great! […]
It’s time that something was invented or created to rival sex. Some mad media types have tried to have us believe that we men think about sex every seven seconds but that’s a lot of old cobblers! If it were true, we would have to be dreaming of sex just about every time we went […]
In the whole scheme of things the bad guys in life are obviously mass murderers, criminals, terrorists and hedge fund managers. Right? Afraid not. I recently talked to a hedge fund expert who not only thinks hedge funds are good for returns but also aren’t as volatile and as risky as most of think. The […]
What if this current rally on the stock market was nothing but a bull rally inside a secular bear market? What if that is crap and we are in a sweet spot with our links to China, Japan and India ensuring that this rally is for real? These were the hot issues I put to […]
At the height of the Great Depression, the US president Franklin D. Roosevelt made the “all we have to fear is fear itself” line famous. But as the global economy emerges out of the Great Recession, I suggest all we have to fear is p-rnography or more precisely — pessimistic p-rn! The media can’t help […]
Easy come, easy go is a cliché that could be used to explain why the Rudd Government is set to change the rules that govern our super and they could really hit some Australians pretty hard. But wait, there’s more. Already we have copped some changes in the last Budget and plenty of ordinary super […]
My business life has been dominated by my great fortune to talk to Australia’s and even the world’s greatest business minds, which has included the likes of Gerry Harvey, John Symond, Boost’s Janine Allis, Richard Branson and Jack Welch, who was once described as the greatest CEO of the twentieth century. And they have taught […]
I always love to find a statistic or some other business or economic fact that makes me feel comfortable that my positive view on the global recovery and the stock market rally is on the money. I found one yesterday which I have to share with you. Dow on the rise Yesterday, Wall Street defied […]
One of my favourite big call merchants is Clifford Bennett from Herston Economics. And last night on my Sky News Business Channel program SWITZER, he reasserted his belief that this would be a great week for the stock market — in fact it will be a very good year! — that gold would go higher […]
Now that the Melbourne horseracing carnival has come to a close and the number of the nation’s punters falls back to more normal levels, it’s timely to give you the good oil on how you should be investing, not punting, to become wealthier. I hate people who promise to make you rich. And I particularly […]
Stocks in Australia will boom with the Dow Jones slamming on a 200-point plus gain smashing through the psychologically important 10,000-level. The great day was driven by bloody good economic news, but now we have to see it happen two days in a row! This is bad news for the bears who have been trying […]
Now for something entirely different. Why does someone come to a website like this one? It’s simple. They want answers. They want confirmation that they can stop worrying and that normal life, whatever that is, will resume. Oh yes, and then there are those who are thinking that we couldn’t have escaped this economic and […]
After a massive run up on the stock market which was over 50 per cent but is now up around 44 per cent since the March lows, the bears are coming out of their caves, again, to warn that Armageddon is just around the corner. To this negative speculation I have just one reply — […]
With everybody tipping an interest rate rise before the Melbourne Cup today, there’s one question that should be asked by everyone in debt. And that question is: “Just how scared should we be?” Right now, the maniacs who were predicting a 0.5 per cent increase on Cup Day have pretty well disappeared, but there are […]
Last week, I suggested that the economy has become the main game and that’s why Wall Street and our stock market went up and down like a Latin lover’s rump! American economic recovery doubts took us down on Thursday and the 3.5 per cent economic growth number took us up and we should fall again […]
The goal I set myself when I put my fingers to the keyboard is to tell my readers something they don’t know. I always hope that it will help them ‘wisen’ up — money-wise or business-wise. And you would love to think that your current column is always your best but I don’t know if […]
It was always going to be a big day for anyone worried about interest rate rises and now that the latest inflation data has been delivered, the best bet for the Cup next week will be to put your money on 0.25 per cent interest rate rise before the Cup and Bart Cummings for the […]
With the stock market giving back some of its gains in recent weeks, there’s one really important word that has to be kept in mind whenever you feel negativity taking hold and that word is — ‘however’. The Dow Jones managed to stay positive overnight but the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq couldn’t resist gravity, […]
One thing I’ve learnt watching and commenting on stock markets and economies for over 25 years is that you have to expect the unexpected. And another lesson is to not get too excited by oddities such as the rise in the US dollar overnight or the fact that good corporate results are not triggering another […]
Wall Street continues to struggle with gravity with the Dow Jones having trouble with the psychologically resistant 10,000-level. This week will be another important test for the rally with more company results ahead. And some company reporting action locally starts to hot up with the likes of NAB, ANZ and Macquarie giving us their latest […]
Those looking to doubt our recovery have been dealt some news they won’t like to hear with the Chinese economy reported to have grown by 8.9 per cent in the September quarter. This was an economy that the so-called experts said would be lucky to grow at six per cent! China crucial Late last year […]
Homer Simpson once asked the question: “Doughnuts. Is there anything they can’t do?” The same question might be asked of the Aussie economy with another run of great data today. In contrast, the US economy, while getting better, is certainly not in the miracle doughnut class and that showed on Wall Street this morning. An […]
If the scary interest rate talk of three rises in a row and even a whopping half-a-per cent rise is under starter’s orders for Cup day, don’t get too stressed. This outcome is not an odds-on certainty. Even the rapid rises could become gradual and measured rises as economic data justifies it. Yesterday, the Reserve […]
On the 22-year anniversary of the Crash of 1987, the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 indexes kept climbing, defying gravity and negative predictions of bear investors, with the latter index breaking through 1100 for the first time this year. The tech story The big story was tech today, and earnings optimism pushed the US […]
For people old enough to remember Nine’s sports broadcaster, Darrell Eastlake, this US company reporting week and therefore the lead for our stock market will be HUGE! And for those optimists out there who might have noted that some of the US economic indicators have wobbled a bit lately, there are still some promising signs […]
The Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens continues to terrorise those in debt with a speech yesterday that confirms he has no qualms playing Freddy Krueger in his remake of A Nightmare on Debt Street 2. He said the central bank cannot be too timid when raising rates given that it was prepared to cut interest […]
It’s early days in the US reporting season and for the bears it’s not good news. Some great results came out yesterday morning for optimists with Intel, the world’s greatest microprocessor producer (that’s the key thing inside your computer) beating estimates, particularly on the revenue side and their outlook call was promising. A big boost […]
It is now official in the USA — the recession is over — and that’s a message the 15 million unemployed Americans might find a little hard to pop a bottle of champagne (or even a can of Bud) over. That said, the actual announcement of good news of that consequence really is a valuable […]
These are weird times on the markets considering we have just commemorated the weekend when global financial and stock markets, as one Big Four banker CEO once told me, stared over the abyss. Ironically one year before on 9 October, both the Dow and the S&P 500 finished at their all-time closing highs. The Dow […]
Despite the fall in unemployment, the board of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are the biggest bunch of killjoys in the country, slugging new chums to the home loan caper with a rate rise that I think has been imposed too early in the piece. However, if they had waited until the right time […]
There might have been high fives and champagne popping all-round at the Reserve Bank (RBA), following yesterday’s unemployment rate, which has, against all odds, fallen. This is massive news and it does a lot to justify the RBA’s desire to get in early to raise interest rates. Wise men say I must admit I thought […]
The exit stage right for Peter Costello is a significant day in both the political and economic history of Australia. Costello was a tragic hero who not enough people liked but his achievements should not be underscored. The country has been lucky in recent years to have two Federal Treasurers who really put their stamp […]
The Reserve Bank’s decision to slap a surprise interest rate rise, which incidentally I tipped on the six o’clock Sky News on Monday night with the great newsreader Jim Waley, has got me thinking about those comic geniuses — The Three Stooges. More on that in a minute. A gambling man Like a tragic comedy, […]
My old mate, Rory Robertson, the hotshot economist and interest rate expert for the millionaire’s factory — Macquarie Bank (or Group, if you want to be precise) — has tipped an interest rate rise from the Reserve Bank. This comes as the latest ANZ job ads figures came in better than expected, which is just […]
There’s a stench that some people seem to smell about shares, and the perceived pong has been pumped up thanks to the Global Financial Crisis, but it really worries me that poor old stocks are on the nose for the wrong reasons. The penny dropped when I was talking to Matt Abraham on 891 ABC […]
Newspapers ran with the wrong heading this week, when they screamed that: “Super fees cost savers $14 billion a year!” The more accurate headline should have been: “Ignorance, laziness and scabbiness is costing savers more than $14 billion a year.” (I don’t like being so mean and insulting but sometimes you have to be hard […]
One thing I learnt writing for great newspapers such as The Australian is that if you wanted to get a big pointer for your story, you had to make it a great photo opportunity. If I referred to Megan Gale or Kylie Minogue, it was always good for getting attention from my editors and inevitably […]
When the Reserve Bank Governor speaks, everyone in debt and all the economic and market experts listen. And in the current context, the Federal Opposition hangs off every word as it tells the Rudd Government to cut back on stimulus. So, who is right? Until proven otherwise, the man with the whistle calling it is […]
Spooky stock market September proved a fizzer and now we have to brace for October with one US commentator warning to expect a seven to 17 per cent market sell off! However, the same guy is bullish on shares! As Manuel from Fawlty Towers might say: “Que?” (For those less Latin — “what?”) More on […]
Two down days in a row and so is this the start of something big? Could the spooky September that has delivered a 2.2 per cent gain and which could end up being a record rising September quarter, give way to a crashing ‘Roctober’ for stock market? In a word: “Na.” We do have some […]
Blame it on the GFC or the hip pocket shuddering aftermath of the market meltdown, but toilet humour has come to business and economics commentary. Overnight, one US expert has stooped to the headline grabbing lows of the tabloid press in suggesting that America is staring at a, wait for it, a toilet-shaped recovery! I […]
The Rudd Government decision to put a gun to Telstra’s head to create a forced separation of its wholesale and retail divisions, is not only a classic case of buyer beware when buying shares but also underlines the need to be not too over-exposed to one stock. But the big question that needs to be […]
It’s sometimes argued, especially by some women, that some men don’t think with their brain but some other organ! This terribly unfair accusation crossed my mind when I saw that Myer’s upcoming prospectus was fronted by our beauty queen Jennifer Hawkins. Around the same time I could not help thinking about what the late Rene […]
Local analysts tell us that it’s hard to see the stock market keep rising because the numbers, like that computer on Little Britain, “says no!” However, it might not matter what’s going on here because our economy has done so well — it’s all about Wall Street. If the all-important indexes in New York — […]
The case of Telstra this week made me think of the great Aussie comic Dave Hughes and rams home one of the most important money making messages you can ever read, see or hear — don’t be too smart, don’t be too cocky and don’t be too scared. Another supporting message is select an investment […]
Despite the fact that a lot of smaller banks as well as non-bank lenders can’t easily access money from overseas and the Big Four banks are dominating home loans, there are some pretty interesting home loan options out there at the moment. I was asked by a radio station and its listeners to look at […]
Bankruptcy laws could soon be changed to make life better for the wrongdoers — the debtor who doesn’t pay — and at the same time punish lots of small and medium-sized businesses. The Federal Attorney General has proposed increasing the minimum debt at which creditors can petition for bankruptcy from $2,000 to $10,000. Roger Mendelson, […]
Excuse the possible misinterpretation, but women are being screwed and it’s time they hit back with what I call the ‘Network’ solution. And it requires women to get “as mad as hell” such that they do something about it! Elizabeth Broderick, who is the country’s Sex Discrimination Commissioner, has slammed the nation’s superannuation system because […]
Joe Hockey is a mate and I used to be Malcolm Turnbull’s patrol captain at North Bondi Surf Club and I reckon one day he could be a great Prime Minister, but they’re both wrong on pulling back on the stimulus package, just after we look like we have not dodged a bullet, but an […]
As someone who got so frustrated by the doomsday merchants predicting our economy was headed into the worst recession since the Great Depression with unemployment surging to 10 per cent, I actually created a Good News Daily alert on my website to counter the over-the-top negativity. One entry last November I remember making, which was […]
Dr John Hewson once advised me, when he was my boss at the University of New South Wales and before he took on Bob Hawke and Paul Keating in the rough and tumble of Canberra, that economists were “simply accountants with a personality”. Actually, it was a time of contrast for me in the 1980s, […]
Gold shot through the US$1000 an Oz level and this is often associated with flights to quality, when stock market players are getting a bit panicky. However, there are many reasons why gold is glittering and one could be linked to what I call the Kyle Sandilands effect. Stick with me on this. Those playing […]
The great business thinker Peter Drucker once explained successful business in pretty simple terms. He said it starts with an innovation and then it’s all down to marketing. When you trawl through the marketing messages that have been burnt onto your mental hard disk, you know no truer business words have ever been uttered. But […]
One week into September — the scariest month of all on Wall Street — and no sell-offs, yet. That’s good news but we still have the rest of the month and that pesky October to deal with. And locally, we have another dilemma — will the Reserve Bank raise interest rates in October? Frankly, I […]
An inquiry held in Brisbane into the collapse of Storm Financial has searched for the answer to the central question about what happened to Storm and its clients. Was it a cock-up? A conspiracy? Or just plain old greed? These are the questions posed by The Sydney Morning Herald’s Stuart Washington, and they are good […]
When I kicked off my show, SWITZER on Sky Business Channel on 29 June this year, I told my viewers I wanted to pursue the perfect portfolio over time and then we would add or take from it, tracking its performance over time. I gave myself an imaginary starting point, which was the group of […]
September promised to bring spooky trading days and on day one in the USA, like a Hollywood scary movie, it delivered a gasping fright right from the start. But don’t worry. Unlike the blockbuster called ‘Lehman Brothers is Dead’, which ran last September, this one looks more like being a B-grade production called something like: […]
The case for a September share market pullback is building, especially with the Chinese stock market starting to take a dramatic dive, but my old mate, ex-chief economist at Deutsche Bank, Don Stammer is not worried. He sees it as a buying opportunity of the stocks he wants to hold in his portfolio. I asked […]
Forget about the market. Forget about interest rates and stop worrying about your job and focus on the most important moneymaking issue in your life — you! That’s right, watching the market, timing your buys and sells of shares, locking in interest rates at the right time as well as buying the right assets in […]
I know Julius Caesar’s wife Calpurnia warned the Roman emperor to “beware the Ides of March” but investors would do better to worry about the months of September and October. There has been a bit of a debate about what month is really the spookiest with crashes often happening in October but the records actually […]
According to a passage in the bible, there’s a time to love and even a time to hate and lots of Aussies allocate their limited amount of hate for banks. And given what they can do, it can be understandable but the question is — is it time to hate banks? I have to be […]
Just how modern do you think you are? A recent report pretty well implies that if you are not online you are off the planet! So if you want to benchmark yourself against the cutting edge generation and online fanatics, have a look at the big observations from the 2009 e-Business Report from Sensis. If […]
What in the hell is going on with interest rates? There’s a new story every day and every one of them is very believable but they are different. At the risk of doing a Donald Rumsfeld, there is one knowable — rates won’t be cut again in this country in the near future unless some […]
We have turned a little bit chicken in Australia, losing 3.82 per cent over the week on the S&P/ASX 200, while the Yanks’s S&P 500 index actually went up 2.2 per cent in the same time. So, as September looms, is this the start of the often talked about pullback? Our market was not helped […]
The great reporting season continued with AMP coming out with a first half net profit of $362 million against an analysts tip of $341 million. The AMP team called it solid and the share market agreed with the share price spiking 2.91 per cent to $6.02. And this happened despite the second half dividend being […]
Just when it looked safe to like the Rudd Government after its brilliant rescue of the Aussie capitalist system with way out and whacky policies such as the stimulus package, the dead heads in the party masquerading as egalitarian tax experts have come up with the idea of hitting homes with a capital gains tax. […]
At long last, ASIC is taking action to improve the financial planning industry but the question is, have they taken a sledgehammer to crack open a peanut? ASIC has submitted its plan to clean up financial planning to a parliamentary inquiry and has recommended: An end to up-front and trailing commissions An end to volume-based […]
No matter what the headlines say. No matter what the experts warn. No matter what your gut feelings tell you, don’t panic — interest rates are not about to go sky high. And don’t live in fear of another financial shock — this is a low order risk. Don’t get me wrong, I love the […]
For a change, Wall Street has had to digest relatively bad news and the doomsday merchants, who to date have been wrong, are trying to spook the market. Now given a pullback from rising share prices is overdue I think the stock market will oblige but forget share price and economic Armageddon — those days […]
A reader on Yahoo recently sent me an important question that must be front of mind for most first homebuyers when making the leap from renting, or living at home, to home ownership: how do I find out how much I can borrow? The question This was the question: “I am thinking about borrowing to […]
Another big up-day on Wall Street and the question remains around what kind of market recovery will we have. The out and out optimists go for the V-shaped. The cautious optimists say U-shaped. The doubters go for W-shaped and some outside-the-square thinkers are going for square root recovery! A number of my money colleagues have […]
Christopher Joye is as mad as hell when it comes to the so-called experts bagging housing as an investment and he has started identifying the culprits who are conspiring to promote the big rivals to direct property — shares, funds, financial institutions and a complying media! And he points the finger at short-sighted super fund […]
This is the most important story I have ever written and that’s why I want you to read it. I have penned good ones in the past but this is the most important. In February last year, I warned that the Reserve Bank would have to “turn on a dime” and cut interest rates because […]
Never underestimate the negativity of headline makers from media outlets, but forgive them because they know not what they do! The latest that made me both cringe and laugh was — “Recovery comes at a price”. This was followed by bullet points — “Interest rates to rise” and “Growth to rebound quickly”. Of course, many […]
One of the challenges of being a so-called money guru is that people actually believe it and they set tasks that should only be reserved for those who are superhuman. These thoughts became obvious as I tried to work through the quagmire that is the matrix of comparable bank accounts in this country. Why was […]
One of the hottest topics and questions asked by investors, especially new, inexperienced investors who believe we are staring a great opportunity in the face to buy into shares at a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, is, do I do it DIY or with an expert? Who are the experts? The expert could be a full-service broker, a […]
How good is this rally? Well, compared to the market in 2008, this is an overdue lucky break, but for those who are out of the market and want in, is it too late? Or is there a pullback overdue? At the beginning of August, these were the big numbers that screamed investors were not […]
The famous Dr Doom — Nouriel Roubini — is in Australia for the famous Diggers and Dealers mining conference in Kalgoorlie and again he is peddling his bad news warnings. His latest is to beware a double dip recession (DDR)! He is not the only expert to say the DDR is a chance. Some weeks […]
Be wary of economists and commentators trying to justify their excessively negative calls, which look like they will end up wrong. On the other hand, don’t think that the rough economic times are totally behind us — they’re not! Only a month away But that said, considering how bad the economic outlook was after September’s […]
Homespun wisdom has always advised us to watch our p’s and q’s but cautious investors might need to watch their v’s and w’s. Of course, if you are sick of the anxiety of ‘should I get into the market now or wait for a sell off’ and you don’t care about a 10 per cent […]
Any investor who underestimates the potential of the millionaires’ factory called Macquarie Group could live to regret it. Sure, all of the experts say the Macquarie model of taking fees off funds it originally set up, that in turn were taken to the market, is broken nowadays. However, my business commentary life has taught me […]
Don’t panic, because despite what you’re reading in newspapers, interest rates are not about to rise! In fact, I really hope no one reads the story as it might help to ensure that it actually turns out to be correct. This is the classic economics writer dilemma when it comes to the sneaky game the […]
My old academic mate Steve Keen might have predicted a 40 per cent fall in real estate prices but one of the country’s most respected property economists can’t see it on his crystal ball. Rob Mellor, who for as long as I have been a business commentator has been ‘counting houses’ for the statistics business […]
History has always told me that when someone tells you “it’s all good” there tends to be a little bit of exaggeration and some important stuff can be left out. That applies equally to Wall Street and the US economy and that’s why I say when it comes to these important drivers for the Aussie […]
Wall Street has done it again, smashing through the 9,000-point barrier with the Dow Jones rising 188 points to 9069, and the S&P 500 shaking off the 950-mark to go up 2.3 per cent to 976. This will break the bears’ hearts, but they won’t completely go away yet! On last night’s episode of SWITZER […]
Calling all nervous Nellies, cautious long-term investors, young and not-so-young people who have never rolled the dice with shares and those thinking of getting into salary sacrifice to turbo charge their super — the worst is behind us. But that doesn’t mean it’s safe, and I underline the word — safe — to get back […]
Yesterday’s date — 21 July — should be noted as a great day in our battle with the Global Financial Crisis. It was the day that one of the country’s doomsday merchants backed off in its scary rhetoric, and the Reserve Bank conveyed the message that interest rates could fall because the inflation outlook was […]
If you are someone who is worried about fixing your home loan, I have an alternative way of fixing, which means you could beat the bank, insure against being hurt by high interest rates, have a nice pile of money for an emergency, pay off your home loan more quickly and save heaps of dough. […]
One big week down in the US company reporting season, and it was good enough to help Wall Street put on seven per cent. But we have another really big show on this week, which will determine whether our share prices head up or down. While you were sleeping on Saturday morning, GE reported and […]
The scariest stock market bear of them all, Nouriel Roubini, with the nickname Doctor Doom, was reported as saying that he’s capitulated and the share buyers loved it. This guy might not be on your social network radar screen, but he has become a market mover and shaker since it was accepted he called the […]
I have said this before, but I will say it louder and clearer — buy the dips. Buy when everyone is panicking and selling, and buy believing the worst on the stock market is behind us. That doesn’t mean it won’t fall, but the long-term investor wanting to build wealth over the next five to […]
The wonderful thing about the world of economics is that it’s like the great line in the movie JFK, which described the enormous unanswered questions around the late president’s death. It goes like this: “It’s a mystery wrapped in a riddle inside an enigma.” In fact, moviemistakes.com says this actually was a line lifted from […]
When a money story is so big that legendary film director Martin Scorsese and actor Leonardo DiCaprio want to make a movie about it, you know it’s a gripping yarn. This is what has happened to the Jordan Belfort story — a Wall Street brokerage, sex, drugs and jail! But the tale does not end […]
When it comes to making money off the stock market, there’s a sucker born everyday, but the next few weeks is shaping up as the classic case where the uninformed or the plain unlucky could be in line to cop a sucker punch. Let me show you how to dodge it! Past warnings Regular Switzer […]
You are going to hear a whole pile of reasons why the stock market is not rallying at the moment, but you can’t miss the fact that there are no panicky sell-offs. However, we are not getting the near instant bounce backs we were seeing a month or so ago. The reason? The wise guys […]
Want some good money making advice? Keep the faith. Believe in the ability of good companies to turn a profit and don’t let down days on the stock market blind you to what you’re trying to achieve. Oh yes, show some guts, but make sure it’s measured by sensible risk management. Master of the markets […]
Anyone with the hankering to make money out of the current stock market effectively faces the Dirty Harry question as company reports loom and the rally that started in early March begins to give back gains. The big bottom line question for all money makers is: “Is this the start of another market crash below […]
Now for the tricky bit — will company results looming in America deliver for the optimists? That’s the question upmost in the mind for the traders who ultimately determine the direction of Wall Street and related markets. ‘Have the bulls overdone their optimism?’ is an enduring question being posed. The reporting season will also answer […]
The one great thing to take out of last week’s relatively disappointing run of economic data in the USA is that there are a lot more bull market believers now than in early March when the stock market plumbed its lows. Despite a run of losing weeks, the willingness to sell shares off big time […]
My media colleagues were alluding to a bloodbath on the local stock market following Wall Street’s tumble with the Dow Jones index shedding 223 points or 2.6 per cent, to close at 8,281. But it got worse with the S&P 500 falling 2.9 per cent and the Nasdaq giving up 2.7 per cent. Look forward, […]
Given our big fall yesterday where the S&P/ASX 200 shed 80.90 points to finish at 3874, today’s stock market movements should be interesting following a rise on Wall Street. Of course, this followed a biggish fall on the New York Stock Exchange. It is the ‘follow the leader’ syndrome but there is more in it […]
If the local stock market does not fall today that will be a big surprise after Wall Street headed south following a surprise drop in consumer confidence. This coincides with the end of the quarter and it follows a big quarter for stocks and a sensational four months since the S&P 500 index in America […]
With a new financial year ahead, how are the stock market, property and general investment ‘planets’ lining up with the economy? Are we in for another market rally where we rocket ahead? Or are we set to end up like a shooting star? Despite apparent evidence to the contrary, I have backed the optimistic scenario […]
You can’t easily live without the work of journalists but sometimes they write some crap! The most recent comes out of Wall Street where they are suggesting that Bernie Madoff getting handed down 150 years for his Ponzi scheme somehow sparked the 90-point rally on Wall Street. The reality is that most investors are caught […]
Local doomsday merchants got a statistical kick in the pants this week when the OECD gave the Aussie economy a big tick, claiming that our economy will contract by only 0.3 per cent this year but will roar back to solid growth next year, with a 2.4 per cent figure tipped. But the even better […]
For those in a quandary over whether they should be fixing their home loan interest rates or gambling on the more volatile variable rate of interest, this is your chance to see what’s going on in my head about this thorny, hip-pocket dilemma. A reader called Jessica recently sent me an interesting question, which I […]
It’s the stuff made of nightmares, nevertheless it does need to be taken into consideration. I’m stating the obvious here, but children are just as susceptible as adults to debilitating diseases or injuries that may result in permanent disability or death. What many parents don’t realise until it’s too late is that it’s just as […]
The big news during May was of course the Federal Budget. On June 3, we got ‘great’ economic growth figures, but I will leave that until later. A lot of the Budget information was leaked before the actual night, so most were prepared for what was in store. I did an economics wrap-up for PriceWaterhouseCoopers […]
It’s official — Australia is NOT in recession! And no matter what negative, doomsday merchants want to say to justify their incorrect calls, there’s no official recession here. This is great news and will help a recovery in consumer and business confidence. This in turn will boost business investment sooner rather than later and that’s […]
The question I am fielding all the time right now is — how do I play this rally? A related one is about whether the worst is behind us and is it time to buy shares? Regular readers know I have pointed out that the US stock market has a history of bouncing around 26% […]
The bear market isn’t over, but bullish language made an appearance over the second half of March. US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner finally released details about plans for the bank’s toxic assets, something that was holding the market back, and the reaction was positive. It’s great or at least better-than-expected leadership that will keep the […]
Post time: Nov-15-2019